The fraction of AbacusSummit cosmologies excluded at 3σ by small-scale clustering multipoles drops from 81% to 25% when moving from fixed HOD parameters to broad marginalization over the five-parameter HOD model.
Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models
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abstract
We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on the choices involved in setting up these measures, and we compare them in three simple examples, one theoretical and two applied. The contribution of this review is to put all these information criteria into a Bayesian predictive context and to better understand, through small examples, how these methods can apply in practice.
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New constraints on dark radiation parameters from recent cosmological datasets show the model alleviates the Hubble tension with SH0ES inclusion while remaining consistent with standard expectations without it.
Latent-f and latent-H Gaussian process reconstructions from OHD data both yield f(z), w(z), and Om(z) consistent with Lambda-CDM, with no strong predictive preference and small prior-dependent residuals mainly at high redshift.
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Bounding the Effect of HOD Assumptions on Small-Scale Clustering Constraints
The fraction of AbacusSummit cosmologies excluded at 3σ by small-scale clustering multipoles drops from 81% to 25% when moving from fixed HOD parameters to broad marginalization over the five-parameter HOD model.
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Exploring the Dark Sector: Interacting Radiation in Light of Modern Cosmological Probes
New constraints on dark radiation parameters from recent cosmological datasets show the model alleviates the Hubble tension with SH0ES inclusion while remaining consistent with standard expectations without it.
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Latent-Space Gaussian Processes for Dark-Energy Reconstruction from Observational \(H(z)\) Data
Latent-f and latent-H Gaussian process reconstructions from OHD data both yield f(z), w(z), and Om(z) consistent with Lambda-CDM, with no strong predictive preference and small prior-dependent residuals mainly at high redshift.