LLM surrogate beliefs under sparse observations depend on prompts and query protocols, with structural prompts as priors, pointwise vs joint querying producing different beliefs, and sequential evidence causing non-monotonic updates that affect acquisition and regret.
Uncertainty quantification and confidence calibration in large language models: A survey
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This paper introduces a systems-level conceptual framing and a three-level taxonomy (intra-model, system-level, socio-technical) for uncertainty propagation in compound LLM applications, along with engineering insights and open challenges.
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Elicitation Matters: How Prompts and Query Protocols Shape LLM Surrogates under Sparse Observations
LLM surrogate beliefs under sparse observations depend on prompts and query protocols, with structural prompts as priors, pointwise vs joint querying producing different beliefs, and sequential evidence causing non-monotonic updates that affect acquisition and regret.
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Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems
This paper introduces a systems-level conceptual framing and a three-level taxonomy (intra-model, system-level, socio-technical) for uncertainty propagation in compound LLM applications, along with engineering insights and open challenges.