SBBT separates Brier-score calibration gains from AUROC ranking gains in prefix-conditioned success estimation for LLM math reasoning, with structure-aware signals yielding up to +0.110 AUROC over baselines.
Baum, Ted Petrie, George Soules, and Norman Weiss
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Prefix-Safe Bayesian Belief Tracking for LLM Reasoning Reliability:Separating Calibration from Ranking
SBBT separates Brier-score calibration gains from AUROC ranking gains in prefix-conditioned success estimation for LLM math reasoning, with structure-aware signals yielding up to +0.110 AUROC over baselines.