A thermodynamic uncertainty relation imposes an entropy-based constraint on the seasonal phase locking of ENSO variance in a linear stochastic recharge oscillator model.
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A geometric indicator from the normal width of the stochastic separatrix in a random two-state ecosystem model scales linearly with noise intensity and yields an affine relation to the logarithm of mean transition time.
A constrained neural differential equation trained on multi-year observations predicts snow albedo with median error under 7.5% and 10-30% improvement over prior models while generalizing to unseen sites.
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Geometric early warning indicator from stochastic separatrix structure in a random two-state ecosystem model
A geometric indicator from the normal width of the stochastic separatrix in a random two-state ecosystem model scales linearly with noise intensity and yields an affine relation to the logarithm of mean transition time.