More capable LLMs produce worse distributional forecasts on superlinear growth time series with tail risks of regime change, with the error concentrated in the upper tail; this reverses on conventional threshold metrics.
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Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most
More capable LLMs produce worse distributional forecasts on superlinear growth time series with tail risks of regime change, with the error concentrated in the upper tail; this reverses on conventional threshold metrics.