Bayesian ensemble MCMC fits a cubic-plus-damped-oscillatory model to Ghana malaria data, reports R² > 0.995, and extrapolates rising case counts through 2026 with widening uncertainty.
and Lynn, Freyja and Meade, Bruce D
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Hybrid GPR and Holt-Winters model applied to 2014-2023 Ghana malaria admission data achieves R²=0.9906 on validation and generates 2024-2028 forecasts of 8000-12200 average monthly cases.
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Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Malaria Dynamics in Ghana via an Ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler
Bayesian ensemble MCMC fits a cubic-plus-damped-oscillatory model to Ghana malaria data, reports R² > 0.995, and extrapolates rising case counts through 2026 with widening uncertainty.
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Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Under-Five Malaria Admissions in Ghana: A Gaussian Process Regression with Holt-Winters Smoothing
Hybrid GPR and Holt-Winters model applied to 2014-2023 Ghana malaria admission data achieves R²=0.9906 on validation and generates 2024-2028 forecasts of 8000-12200 average monthly cases.