Standard count time series models with pandemic break indicators applied to US and Italian transplant data capture COVID deviations, show deceased-donor recovery to baselines, and find auxiliary COVID covariates add negligible predictive value beyond autoregressive and calendar terms.
COVID-19 in transplant recipients: the Spanish experience.American Journal of Transplantation, 21(5):1825–1837
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Scalable model selection for count time series with structural breaks: application to solid-organ transplantation during and after COVID-19 in the USA and Italy
Standard count time series models with pandemic break indicators applied to US and Italian transplant data capture COVID deviations, show deceased-donor recovery to baselines, and find auxiliary COVID covariates add negligible predictive value beyond autoregressive and calendar terms.