A Latent NCDE-based continuous-time probabilistic corrector wrapped around deterministic physics propagators like GMAT improves forecast accuracy and produces sharp calibrated full-covariance uncertainty estimates on real CDDIS data for 2-4 day horizons.
Neural CDEs as Correctors for Learned Time Series Models
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abstract
Learned time-series models, whether continuous or discrete, are widely used for forecasting the states of dynamical systems but suffer from error accumulation in multi-step forecasts. To address this issue, we propose a Predictor-Corrector framework in which the Predictor is a learned time-series model that generates multi-step forecasts and the Corrector is a neural controlled differential equation that corrects the forecast errors. The Corrector works with irregularly sampled time series and is compatible with both continuous- and discrete-time Predictors. We further introduce two regularization strategies that improve the Corrector's extrapolation performance and accelerate its training. We also provide theoretical guarantees on the stability and convergence of the proposed framework. Experiments on synthetic, physics-based, and real-world datasets show that the proposed framework consistently improves forecasting performance across diverse Predictors, including neural ordinary differential equations, ContiFormer, and DLinear, demonstrating its predictor-agnostic nature.
fields
cs.LG 1years
2026 1verdicts
UNVERDICTED 1representative citing papers
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Continuous-Time Probabilistic Correctors for Uncertainty-Aware Physics-Based Spacecraft Trajectory Forecasting
A Latent NCDE-based continuous-time probabilistic corrector wrapped around deterministic physics propagators like GMAT improves forecast accuracy and produces sharp calibrated full-covariance uncertainty estimates on real CDDIS data for 2-4 day horizons.