Success bias in collective theory-building leads to systematic overestimation of theory quality, narrower search, and paradoxically lower performance when agents optimize for apparent success.
Chang, Epistemic Iteration and Natural Kinds: Realism and Pluralism in Taxonomy, in Philosophical Issues in Psychiatry IV: Classification of Psychiatric Illness, K
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Nothing Deceives Like Success: Social Learning and the Illusion of Understanding in Science
Success bias in collective theory-building leads to systematic overestimation of theory quality, narrower search, and paradoxically lower performance when agents optimize for apparent success.