Embedding a hump-shaped general-purpose technology shock in the Campbell-Shiller model makes fundamental prices locally explosive, distorting bubble tests; a projection onto technology proxies removes the distortion and shows no speculation in 2020-2025 AI stocks but confirms it in late-1999 dot-com
Becauseδhas bounded support, the remaining terms in (D.11) form a geometrically discounted tail
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General-Purpose Technology and Speculative Bubble Detection
Embedding a hump-shaped general-purpose technology shock in the Campbell-Shiller model makes fundamental prices locally explosive, distorting bubble tests; a projection onto technology proxies removes the distortion and shows no speculation in 2020-2025 AI stocks but confirms it in late-1999 dot-com