SpikeProphecy decomposes spike-count forecasting performance into temporal fidelity, spatial pattern accuracy, and magnitude-invariant alignment, revealing reproducible brain-region predictability rankings and a sub-Poisson evaluation floor across seven model families on 105 Neuropixels sessions.
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SpikeProphecy: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Autoregressive Neural Population Forecasting
SpikeProphecy decomposes spike-count forecasting performance into temporal fidelity, spatial pattern accuracy, and magnitude-invariant alignment, revealing reproducible brain-region predictability rankings and a sub-Poisson evaluation floor across seven model families on 105 Neuropixels sessions.