The Signal Credibility Index (SCI) is a microstructure diagnostic that measures signal credibility in prediction markets via persistence ratio on logit prices and flow-based concentration, with weighted and time-varying forms validated in Monte Carlo simulations.
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The Signal Credibility Index for Prediction Markets: A Microstructure-Grounded Diagnostic with Weighted and Time-Varying Extensions
The Signal Credibility Index (SCI) is a microstructure diagnostic that measures signal credibility in prediction markets via persistence ratio on logit prices and flow-based concentration, with weighted and time-varying forms validated in Monte Carlo simulations.