Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.
Condensation of eigen microstate in statistical ensemble and phase transition.Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, 62(9):990511
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Spectral condensation of eigen-microstate occupations, quantified by emergent-sector entropy, diagnoses finite nonequilibrium transitions such as polar-vortex breakdown in ERA5 data and a wave-mean-flow model.
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State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability
Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.
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Spectral condensation in a finite nonequilibrium atmospheric transition
Spectral condensation of eigen-microstate occupations, quantified by emergent-sector entropy, diagnoses finite nonequilibrium transitions such as polar-vortex breakdown in ERA5 data and a wave-mean-flow model.