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arxiv: 1102.0598 · v2 · pith:6SYZJWBJnew · submitted 2011-02-03 · 🧮 math.ST · stat.ME· stat.TH

Optimal sequential change-detection for fractional diffusion-type processes

classification 🧮 math.ST stat.MEstat.TH
keywords fractionalprocesseschangecriterioncusumdiffusion-typelordentest
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We consider the problem of detecting an abrupt change in the distribution of a sequentially observed stochastic process. We establish the optimality of the CUSUM test with respect to a modified version of Lorden's criterion for arbitrary processes with continuous paths and apply this general result to the special case of fractional diffusion-type processes. As a by-product, we show that the CUSUM test optimizes Lorden's original criterion when a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H adopts a polynomial drift term with exponent H + 1/2 after the change.

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