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arxiv 2310.17651 v2 pith:7N5IPBOB submitted 2023-10-26 cs.LG

High-Dimensional Prediction for Sequential Decision Making

classification cs.LG
keywords decisionpredictionregretalgorithmsmakersmanypolynomiallyclass
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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We study the problem of making predictions of an adversarially chosen high-dimensional state that are unbiased subject to an arbitrary collection of conditioning events, with the goal of tailoring these events to downstream decision makers. We give efficient algorithms for solving this problem, as well as a number of applications that stem from choosing an appropriate set of conditioning events. For example, we can efficiently make predictions targeted at polynomially many decision makers, giving each of them optimal swap regret if they best-respond to our predictions. We generalize this to online combinatorial optimization, where the decision makers have a very large action space, to give the first algorithms offering polynomially many decision makers no regret on polynomially many subsequences that may depend on their actions and the context. We apply these results to get efficient no-subsequence-regret algorithms in extensive-form games (EFGs), yielding a new family of regret guarantees for EFGs that generalizes some existing EFG regret notions, e.g. regret to informed causal deviations, and is generally incomparable to other known such notions. Next, we develop a novel transparent alternative to conformal prediction for building valid online adversarial multiclass prediction sets. We produce class scores that downstream algorithms can use for producing valid-coverage prediction sets, as if these scores were the true conditional class probabilities. We show this implies strong conditional validity guarantees including set-size-conditional and multigroup-fair coverage for polynomially many downstream prediction sets. Moreover, our class scores can be guaranteed to have improved $L_2$ loss, cross-entropy loss, and generally any Bregman loss, compared to any collection of benchmark models, yielding a high-dimensional real-valued version of omniprediction.

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Cited by 3 Pith papers

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    Action-conditional conformal prediction sets provide per-action safety guarantees for risk-averse policies that optimize conditional value-at-risk through pinball-loss minimization.

  3. Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies

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    Risk-controlled post-processing yields a threshold-structured policy that follows the baseline except where an oracle fallback sharply reduces conditional violation risk, achieving O(log n/n) expected excess risk in i...