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arxiv: 2505.10517 · v5 · submitted 2025-05-15 · 🧬 q-bio.QM

A Tutorial on Structural Identifiability of Epidemic Models Using StructuralIdentifiability.jl

Pith reviewed 2026-05-22 14:34 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🧬 q-bio.QM
keywords structural identifiabilityepidemic modelsSEIR modelsODE identifiabilityparameter estimationJulia packagevector-borne diseasesinfectious disease modeling
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The pith

Structural identifiability analysis using StructuralIdentifiability.jl shows that epidemic model parameters can often be recovered only as combinations rather than individually, depending on observed variables and initial conditions.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

Structural identifiability determines whether parameters in an epidemic model can be uniquely recovered from ideal, noise-free data, serving as a prerequisite for reliable parameter estimation. This tutorial demonstrates a systematic workflow to perform global structural identifiability analysis on ordinary differential equation models using the Julia package StructuralIdentifiability.jl. The approach is applied to SEIR variants with asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission, vector-borne disease models, and systems that include hospitalization and disease-induced mortality. Results indicate that identifiability depends on model structure, the choice of observed variables, and assumptions about initial conditions, while identifiable parameter combinations can exist even when individual parameters are not globally identifiable. A visual strategy embeds these results into compartmental diagrams to improve interpretation and communication.

Core claim

The paper presents a reproducible framework for integrating global structural identifiability analysis into epidemic modeling workflows using StructuralIdentifiability.jl, illustrated across SEIR models with asymptomatic transmission, vector-borne models, and systems incorporating hospitalization and mortality; it establishes that identifiability depends critically on model structure, observed variables, and initial-condition assumptions, and that identifiable parameter combinations may exist even when individual parameters are not globally identifiable.

What carries the argument

StructuralIdentifiability.jl package, which applies algebraic methods to determine global identifiability of parameters in systems of ordinary differential equations given specified observation functions and initial conditions.

If this is right

  • Identifiability analysis should precede parameter fitting in epidemic model calibration to avoid non-unique estimates.
  • Changing which compartments or variables are observed can render previously non-identifiable parameters identifiable or create identifiable combinations.
  • Compartmental diagrams with embedded identifiability results provide a practical tool for communicating findings to interdisciplinary teams.
  • The same workflow applies across model classes including SEIR variants, vector-borne diseases, and models with hospitalization and mortality.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The tutorial framework could be tested on models with time-dependent transmission rates or age-structured populations to check whether identifiability patterns change.
  • Combining this structural analysis with practical identifiability checks under noisy data would give a fuller picture of what can be reliably estimated in real outbreaks.
  • Similar step-by-step tutorials using the same package could be developed for ODE models in ecology or pharmacology to broaden adoption beyond infectious disease applications.

Load-bearing premise

The tutorial assumes that the StructuralIdentifiability.jl package correctly implements the algebraic algorithms for checking global identifiability without errors or unstated limitations for the specific epidemic ODE structures and observation functions used in the examples.

What would settle it

Simulate noise-free data from one of the example models under the package's reported identifiability results and attempt to fit the model; if a parameter labeled globally identifiable yields inconsistent estimates across different initial conditions or observation choices, that would contradict the analysis for that model.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2505.10517 by Gerardo Chowell, Necibe Tuncer, Omar Saucedo, Yuganthi R. Liyanage.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: As illustrated in this figure, the number of publications that include structural [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: SEIR model flow diagram and structural identifiability results. The top panel [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Flow diagram of the SEIR model extended to account for symptomatic and [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Flow diagram of the SEIR model with infectious asymptomatic individuals. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Flow diagram of the SEIR model extended to include disease-induced mortality. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Flow diagram of the SEIR model incorporating disease-induced mortality and [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p024_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Flow diagram of the simple vector-borne disease model. This model captures the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p027_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Flow diagram of the vector-borne disease model incorporating asymptomatic hu [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p029_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Flow diagram of the Ebola transmission model. The model captures multiple [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p032_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Flow diagram of Model M8 showing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Diagram reproduced with permission from Chowell et al. (2023). 44 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p044_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Flow diagram of the SEUIR model that accounts for both reported and un [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p051_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Flow diagram of the SEUIHRD model. This model captures key aspects [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p052_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Flow diagram of the SEIR model incorporating both zoonotic spillover infec [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p058_13.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Structural identifiability is the theoretical ability to uniquely recover model parameters from ideal, noise-free data and is a prerequisite for reliable parameter estimation in epidemic modeling. Despite its importance for calibration and inference, structural identifiability analysis remains underused and inconsistently applied in infectious disease modeling. This paper presents a user-oriented methodological tutorial demonstrating how global structural identifiability analysis can be systematically integrated into epidemic modeling workflows. We provide a reproducible framework for conducting structural identifiability analysis of ordinary differential equation models using the Julia package StructuralIdentifiability.jl. The workflow is illustrated across commonly used epidemic models, including SEIR variants with asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission, vector-borne disease models, and systems incorporating hospitalization and disease-induced mortality. We also introduce a visual communication strategy that embeds identifiability results directly into compartmental diagrams, facilitating interpretation and interdisciplinary communication. Our results show that identifiability depends critically on model structure, the choice of observed variables, and assumptions about initial conditions, and that identifiable parameter combinations may exist even when individual parameters are not globally identifiable. Emphasizing transparent implementation, interpretation, and communication, this work provides practical guidance and comparative insights across model classes. The tutorial is designed as both a reference and a teaching resource for researchers and educators seeking to incorporate structural identifiability analysis into epidemic model development. All code and annotated diagrams are publicly available to ensure reproducibility and reuse.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 3 minor

Summary. This manuscript is a tutorial demonstrating the use of the Julia package StructuralIdentifiability.jl to perform global structural identifiability analysis on ordinary differential equation epidemic models. It illustrates the workflow on SEIR variants with asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission, vector-borne models, and extensions incorporating hospitalization and disease-induced mortality. The paper claims that identifiability depends critically on model structure, choice of observed variables, and initial-condition assumptions, that identifiable parameter combinations may exist even when individual parameters are not globally identifiable, and that results can be communicated effectively via annotated compartmental diagrams. All code is made publicly available for reproducibility.

Significance. If the package correctly implements the underlying algorithms for the illustrated ODE systems and observation maps, the tutorial provides a clear, practical, and reproducible framework that could help integrate structural identifiability checks into standard epidemic modeling practice. The emphasis on visual communication of results and the public code repository are strengths that support reuse and teaching. The work addresses a genuine gap in consistent application of identifiability analysis within infectious disease modeling.

major comments (1)
  1. The tutorial presents identifiability conclusions for the concrete models (e.g., SEIR with asymptomatic transmission and the vector-borne example) solely as outputs from StructuralIdentifiability.jl. No cross-validation against manual differential-algebra derivations, known analytic results for these standard models, or outputs from alternative packages such as SIAN or DAISY is provided for any of the examples. This is load-bearing for the central claim that the workflow can be systematically integrated, because the reported rankings and identifiable combinations rest on the unverified behavior of the package for the specific observation functions and initial-condition assumptions used.
minor comments (3)
  1. The manuscript would benefit from a short subsection or paragraph explicitly stating the version of StructuralIdentifiability.jl used and any known limitations of the package for epidemic ODE classes.
  2. Figure captions for the compartmental diagrams could more explicitly describe which parameters or combinations are shown as identifiable versus non-identifiable.
  3. A brief comparison table summarizing identifiability outcomes across the different model classes and observation scenarios would improve readability and allow readers to quickly grasp the dependence on structure and observations.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive and positive assessment, including the recommendation for minor revision. We address the single major comment below by agreeing that additional validation would strengthen the manuscript and outlining the planned changes.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: The tutorial presents identifiability conclusions for the concrete models (e.g., SEIR with asymptomatic transmission and the vector-borne example) solely as outputs from StructuralIdentifiability.jl. No cross-validation against manual differential-algebra derivations, known analytic results for these standard models, or outputs from alternative packages such as SIAN or DAISY is provided for any of the examples. This is load-bearing for the central claim that the workflow can be systematically integrated, because the reported rankings and identifiable combinations rest on the unverified behavior of the package for the specific observation functions and initial-condition assumptions used.

    Authors: We agree that cross-validation would improve the tutorial's robustness and help readers trust the workflow. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated subsection (likely in Section 3 or as an appendix) that (i) recalls known analytic identifiability results for the classic SEIR model from the literature and shows that StructuralIdentifiability.jl reproduces them under the same observation and initial-condition assumptions, and (ii) provides a side-by-side comparison with SIAN outputs for the simpler SEIR variants. For the more complex vector-borne and hospitalization models we will note that exhaustive manual derivations become intractable and instead cite the original validation benchmarks of StructuralIdentifiability.jl together with the public code repository so that readers can reproduce or extend the checks. These additions directly address the load-bearing concern while preserving the tutorial's practical focus. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: tutorial reuses external package on standard models without self-referential derivations

full rationale

The paper is a user-oriented tutorial demonstrating the application of the existing StructuralIdentifiability.jl package to common compartmental epidemic models (SEIR variants, vector-borne, hospitalization extensions). It presents no new derivations, parameter fits, predictions, or uniqueness theorems that reduce to the paper's own inputs or self-citations. Identifiability results are shown as outputs of the external tool applied to standard ODE structures and observation functions, with emphasis on reproducibility via public code. The central claims concern workflow integration and dependence on model structure/observations/initial conditions, which are supported by the package's algebraic methods rather than any internal loop or fitted renaming. This is self-contained instructional content against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The tutorial relies on established theory of structural identifiability for ODE systems and the correctness of the cited Julia package; no new free parameters, ad-hoc axioms, or invented entities are introduced.

axioms (1)
  • standard math Standard algebraic and differential-algebraic methods for testing global structural identifiability apply without modification to the compartmental ODE models considered.
    The workflow presupposes that the theoretical framework implemented in StructuralIdentifiability.jl is valid for the SEIR, vector-borne, and hospitalization models shown.

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Forward citations

Cited by 2 Pith papers

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  1. A Replica Exchange Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Disconnected Implicit Manifolds via Tubular Relaxation

    math.NA 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    A replica exchange MCMC algorithm couples constrained and relaxed chains to sample from disconnected implicit manifolds defined by nonlinear constraints.

  2. A Tutorial on Symbolic Structural Identifiability Analysis of ODE Models in Julia

    stat.ME 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 2.0

    A tutorial on using StructuralIdentifiability.jl to assess local and global identifiability in ODE models with examples from epidemiology, pharmacokinetics, and systems biology.

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