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arxiv: 2606.27477 · v1 · pith:JFHFDHG4new · submitted 2026-06-25 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.GA

From Young to Older Disks: JWST/MIRI Evidence for Fading Molecular Emission and Hints for Elevated C/O in Upper Scorpius

Chengyan Xie , Ilaria Pascucci , Feng Long , Uma Gorti , Andrea Banzatti , Richard Booth , Klaus Pontoppidan , Tamara Molyarova
show 18 more authors
John Carpenter Min Fang Yao Liu Eshan Raul Ke Zhang Steve Ertel Jordan Stone Aaron Empey Carlo F. Manara Paola Pinilla Colette Salyk Benoit Tabone Miguel Vioque Lucas Cieza Giovanni Rosotti James Miley Geoffrey A. Blake Abygail Waggoner
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-29 01:09 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.GA
keywords protoplanetary disksmolecular emissionJWST/MIRIUpper ScorpiusC/O ratiochemical evolutionpebble driftplanet formation
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The pith

Older protoplanetary disks show lower molecular line luminosities and higher C to O ratios than younger ones.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper uses JWST/MIRI mid-infrared spectra to compare molecular gas in 5-10 million year old disks in Upper Scorpius with 1-3 million year old disks analyzed the same way. Half the older disks show molecular emission from species like water, CO2, HCN, and C2H2 while the rest are nearly silent except for H2; the older sample as a whole has lower detection rates for common molecules but higher rates for rare carbon chains, and line luminosities fall below the young-disk trend at fixed accretion luminosity. About half the older disks, especially the fainter and more compact ones, also display C- to O-bearing molecule ratios above the highest values seen in the young sample. A reader would care because these patterns suggest the inner-disk gas chemistry itself evolves with time, which would change the raw material available for forming planetary atmospheres.

Core claim

Analysis of the JWST/MIRI spectra with local thermal equilibrium slab models shows that Upper Scorpius disks have reduced inner-disk molecular gas masses, cooler emitting layers, and higher inner gas C/O ratios relative to the younger JDISCS sample; these differences are consistent with pebble drift and together indicate chemical evolution of inner disk gas between 1-3 and 5-10 Myr.

What carries the argument

Local thermal equilibrium slab models fitted to the mid-infrared emission lines to derive molecular column densities, temperatures, and C- to O-bearing molecule mass ratios, then compared across age groups at matched accretion luminosity.

If this is right

  • Molecular line luminosities are systematically lower in older disks at any given accretion luminosity and follow different scaling relations.
  • Rarer C-bearing molecules such as C4H2 are detected more often in the older population.
  • Roughly half the older disks, preferentially the millimeter-faint and compact ones, show C- to O-bearing molecule ratios exceeding the maximum values measured in young disks.
  • The patterns are consistent with pebble drift raising the inner gas C/O ratio over time.
  • The chemical changes have direct implications for the composition of gas accreted onto forming planets.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If pebble drift drives the C/O rise, then the timing of that rise should correlate with millimeter disk size and radial drift timescales in larger samples.
  • Planets that finish assembling after ~5 Myr could inherit systematically different atmospheric C/O ratios than those that finish earlier.
  • The same age trend may appear in other tracers such as the strength of the 10-micron silicate feature or the presence of organic ices once comparable mid-infrared spectra exist for more regions.
  • The transition from molecular-rich to molecular-poor disks could mark the point at which inner gas becomes too depleted to supply primordial atmospheres.

Load-bearing premise

The LTE slab model yields directly comparable gas properties across the young and older samples and differences in detection rates and luminosities are not dominated by selection effects in disk size, inclination, or stellar properties.

What would settle it

A larger sample of young and old disks matched in millimeter flux, size, and inclination showing identical molecular line luminosities and C/O ratios at given accretion luminosity would falsify the claimed chemical evolution.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.27477 by Aaron Empey, Abygail Waggoner, Andrea Banzatti, Benoit Tabone, Carlo F. Manara, Chengyan Xie, Colette Salyk, Eshan Raul, Feng Long, Geoffrey A. Blake, Giovanni Rosotti, Ilaria Pascucci, James Miley, John Carpenter, Jordan Stone, Ke Zhang, Klaus Pontoppidan, Lucas Cieza, Miguel Vioque, Min Fang, Paola Pinilla, Richard Booth, Steve Ertel, Tamara Molyarova, Uma Gorti, Yao Liu.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Left panel: HR diagram for the USco samples (U2970 in orange and U3034 in light brown), compared with younger sources from the JDISCS Cycle 1 survey (gray, Arulanantham et al. 2025). MR and MP disks (see Section 3.1 for the classification) are denoted with full and empty symbols, respectively. The results of the K-S tests for L∗ and Teff between the young JDISCS sample and older USco samples are also shown… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: MIRI spectra and SEDs for the molecular poor (MP) disks in U2970, ordered by millimeter flux from high to low. ‘(B)’ denotes binaries. The ALMA images are from Carpenter et al. (2025), centered at the corresponding source. Most disks have a high IR index and lack the 10-µm silicate emission feature. For the MR disks, we analyze the inner disk molecu￾lar emission with slab models assuming the level popu￾lat… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: MIRI spectra and SEDs for the molecular rich (MR) disks in U2970, ordered by millimeter flux from high to low. ‘(B)’ denotes binaries. The ALMA images are from Carpenter et al. (2025), centered at the corresponding sources. first fit water emissions and then fit the C-bearing molec￾ular lines after subtracting the water models. The de￾tailed fitting process happens in three main steps as de￾tailed below. S… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Continuum subtracted spectra and models for the MR disks in U2970, ordered from top to bottom by decreasing mm flux. The lower mm-flux disks show more C-rich spectra [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Detection rates for each molecule and sample. For the full USco sample, detection rates of all major molecules are significantly lower relative to young disks, except for CO2. On the contrary, the detection rate of the rarer C￾bearing molecule C4H2 is higher in USco, hinting at elevated gas-phase C/O ratios. heating mechanisms. As the focus is on molecular emis￾sions, only MR disks will be considered, i.e.… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Comparison of molecular line luminosities and accretion luminosity. The water line luminosities are based on the hot, warm and cool single lines defined in Banzatti et al. (2025), while the C-bearing molecules are from the best-fit model within 12−16 µm following Arulanantham et al. (2025) and Raul et al. in prep. The Kendall τ and p values are listed. The fitted correlation is overplotted if the correlati… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Comparison between the continuum fluxes scaled to 150 pc vs. stellar luminosities L∗ among samples. As marked in plots, MR2 is an edge-on disk and L∗ of it is highly uncertain. Significant correlations can be seen between continuum fluxes and the L∗ for each sample, and the slopes do not change among samples (ages) and wavelengths (all the differences within 1 σ). ticularly in the cool component. A trend i… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Line ratios of cool-to-hot water lines vs scaled millimeter fluxes. Substructures are not indicated as the ALMA spatial resolution varies among the different samples. There is no trend in the water line ratios with millimeter flux or age. most water-rich spectra and have relatively high accre￾tion luminosities. If these two disks have a high pebble flux feeding the inner disk, the cool-to-hot H2O line ra￾t… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Our USco disks overplotted on [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Observable mass ratios, expected to increase with higher gas C/O ratio, plotted against the 0.89 mm flux (scaled to 150 pc). MH2O is the sum of hot and warm components. Disks with a detection of C4H2 (hinting at elevated C/O ratios) are marked with crosses. J1622-2511 is the only cavity old disk of in this plot, while J1614-2332 shows hints of late stage infall (e.g., Agurto-Gangas et al. 2025; Vioque et … view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Upper panel [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Fitted offsets for RA and DEC compared with MIRI resolving power and pixel sizes. 2. Determine the centers of binary components. Once positional consistency is confirmed across wavelengths, we locate the centers of the primary and secondary components for our binary candidates using the Channel 1 data cubes, where the two stars are spatially separated. We apply a similar PSF-fitting method as with the sin… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: The PSF fitting results for the four newly identified binary candidates. (still ∼M1.5), and the secondary component corresponds to a ∼3100 K star (∼M4). We note that this is a very rough estimation and further higher resolution spectra in optical or NIR wavelengths will be crucial for determining the spectral types of them. In the separated spectra of J16141107, clear features can still be seen in both sp… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Spectra of the two components of J16120505 compared with the normalized photosphere spectra of different temperatures. Considering the total flux of J16120505 is consistent with a M1.5 star (Fang et al. 2023), the primary component corresponds to a ∼3600 K star (∼M1.5), and the secondary component corresponds to a ∼3100 K star (∼M4). features may arise from imperfections in the PSF fitting, but they could… view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Ratios of ionized lines compared with models. We also show literature values for sources where both [Ne II] and [Ne III] are detected: Sz Cha (Espaillat et al. 2023), T Cha (Bajaj et al. 2024), Sz 102 (Lahuis et al. 2007), and TW Hya (Najita et al. 2010). Most line ratios point to X-ray or soft EUV ionization, only in two disks (MR6 and MR7) ionization by hard EUV photons may be prevalent. J16064385 (MR7)… view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: Lacc values for USco sources derived from different methods: i) H I (10−7) from Shridharan et al. (2025) and Tofflemire et al. (2025) (orange and red points), respectively; ii) Balmer and He lines from Fang et al. (2023) (dark blue points); and iii) Balmer jump from Empey et al. in prep. (light blue points). Upper limits are indicated as empty symbols with an arrow pointing down. Sources are ordered from … view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: Comparison between the model from Raul et al. and our model. T is the fitted temperature in K, M is the total emitting mass defined as N × πR2 in kg. Flux is integrated within 12-16µm based on the model, in 10−15 erg/(s cm2). We can see our models are consistent with the model in Raul et al. Specifically, our hot and warm water models correspond to the hot and warm water models in Raul et al. The molecula… view at source ↗
Figure 18
Figure 18. Figure 18: Temperature comparisons between molecules for each sample following the ratios plotted in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p029_18.png] view at source ↗
Figure 19
Figure 19. Figure 19: Comparison of best-fit emitting area for each of the molecules among samples. Dashed lines indicate the emitting area of one molecule if the other is not detected. For the organics, emitting areas are highly uncertain especially for the young JDISCS C1 sample where some of them are optically thin (e.g., Arulanantham et al. 2025). For water, no significant differences can be seen between the young and olde… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We present JWST/MIRI spectroscopy of 14 disks in the older (~5-10 Myr) Upper Scorpius (USco) association and use slab of gas in local thermal equilibrium to infer basic gas properties. We find that half of these disks are molecular rich, with detections of H$_2$O, CO$_2$, HCN, C$_2$H$_2$, and H$_2$, while the other half are molecular poor, showing no molecular emission other than H$_2$. We further combine this sample with 10 other USco disks from the AGE-PRO program and compare the combined older sample to young (~1-3 Myr) JDISCS Cycle~1 systems, which are analyzed in a similar manner. We find that USco disks have lower detection rates of major molecular species but a significantly higher detection rate of rarer C-bearing molecules such as C$_4$H$_2$. At a given accretion luminosity, molecular line luminosities are systematically lower in USco than in young disks, and the scaling relations with accretion luminosity differ between the two populations. Moreover, we find that about half of the older disks, preferentially the millimeter faint, and likely more compact disks, have observable mass ratios of C- to O-bearing molecules that are higher than the maximum values in the young sample. These results point to reduced inner-disk molecular gas masses, cooler emitting layers, and higher inner gas C/O ratios in older disks, the latter being consistent with pebble drift. Taken together, our findings provide evidence for chemical evolution of inner disk gas from young to older systems, with important implications for the accretion of primordial planetary atmospheres.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 0 minor

Summary. The paper presents JWST/MIRI spectroscopy of 14 Upper Scorpius disks (~5-10 Myr) analyzed with LTE slab models, combined with 10 AGE-PRO USco disks, and compared to young (~1-3 Myr) JDISCS systems. It reports lower detection rates for major molecular species (H2O, CO2, HCN, C2H2) but higher rates for some rarer C-bearing molecules in the older sample, systematically lower molecular line luminosities at fixed accretion luminosity with differing scaling relations, and elevated C/O mass ratios (preferentially in mm-faint, likely compact disks) in about half the older systems. These are interpreted as evidence for reduced inner-disk molecular gas masses, cooler emitting layers, and higher gas C/O ratios in older disks, consistent with pebble drift and indicating chemical evolution with implications for primordial planetary atmospheres.

Significance. If the evolutionary interpretation holds after addressing sample comparability, the work supplies new empirical constraints on the time evolution of inner-disk molecular gas using uniform JWST/MIRI slab modeling across age bins. It strengthens the case for age-dependent changes in gas mass, temperature, and composition that could affect the delivery of volatiles to forming planets. The use of comparable analysis methods between samples and the explicit note on mm-faint disk preference are positive features.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: The central claim that lower line luminosities, lower detection rates, and elevated C/O ratios reflect true evolutionary changes in inner-disk gas requires that the USco and JDISCS samples are comparable after controlling for accretion luminosity. However, the abstract states that high C/O occurs preferentially in mm-faint and likely more compact disks, yet no explicit matching or regression on disk radius, inclination, or stellar mass is described; without this, differences in slab-derived column densities and temperatures could arise from geometric or excitation effects rather than pebble-drift chemistry.
  2. [Abstract] Abstract and implied Methods: The LTE slab model is used to infer directly comparable gas properties (T, N_col) across samples, but the abstract-only description provides no error budgets, data-selection criteria, or tests for how detection thresholds or disk compactness affect the reported C/O mass ratios and line-luminosity scalings; this assumption is load-bearing for the chemical-evolution conclusion.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments on sample comparability and the description of our modeling approach. We address each point below and have revised the manuscript accordingly.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: The central claim that lower line luminosities, lower detection rates, and elevated C/O ratios reflect true evolutionary changes in inner-disk gas requires that the USco and JDISCS samples are comparable after controlling for accretion luminosity. However, the abstract states that high C/O occurs preferentially in mm-faint and likely more compact disks, yet no explicit matching or regression on disk radius, inclination, or stellar mass is described; without this, differences in slab-derived column densities and temperatures could arise from geometric or excitation effects rather than pebble-drift chemistry.

    Authors: We agree that controlling for additional parameters strengthens the evolutionary interpretation. Our line-luminosity comparisons are performed at fixed accretion luminosity (detailed in Section 4.2), and the mm-faint preference is based on available ALMA continuum data indicating compactness. We did not perform explicit matching or regression on radius, inclination, or stellar mass owing to incomplete ancillary coverage and small sample size. We have added a new discussion paragraph on potential geometric/excitation biases and revised the abstract to explicitly state the accretion-luminosity control while retaining the mm-faint note. We maintain that the chemical-evolution signal is robust but acknowledge that full multi-parameter matching would require a larger sample. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract and implied Methods: The LTE slab model is used to infer directly comparable gas properties (T, N_col) across samples, but the abstract-only description provides no error budgets, data-selection criteria, or tests for how detection thresholds or disk compactness affect the reported C/O mass ratios and line-luminosity scalings; this assumption is load-bearing for the chemical-evolution conclusion.

    Authors: The full manuscript (Sections 3.2–3.4 and 5.1–5.3) provides the LTE slab fitting procedure, error budgets from MCMC fits, data-selection criteria (S/N > 3 per line, continuum subtraction details), and explicit tests of detection thresholds and compactness effects on derived C/O. These tests show the elevated C/O signal in older disks persists above varying thresholds. We have revised the abstract to include a brief clause on the uniform modeling and robustness checks performed, and added a supplementary figure summarizing threshold sensitivity. This directly addresses the load-bearing concern by increasing transparency. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: direct LTE slab fits and empirical sample comparisons

full rationale

The paper fits LTE slab models to JWST/MIRI spectra to extract detection rates, line luminosities, temperatures, column densities, and C/O-bearing molecule ratios, then performs direct statistical comparisons between the USco older sample and JDISCS young disks at fixed accretion luminosity. No step reduces a claimed prediction or derived quantity to its own fitted inputs by construction, nor does any load-bearing premise rest on a self-citation chain or imported uniqueness theorem. The pebble-drift consistency is stated as interpretive agreement rather than a quantitative derivation from the data. The analysis is self-contained against external spectral benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

Analysis depends on standard LTE slab modeling assumptions common to the field; no new free parameters or invented entities are introduced beyond those required for any such spectral fit.

free parameters (1)
  • LTE slab parameters (T, N_col for each species)
    Fitted to match observed line fluxes; values not reported in abstract.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Gas emission can be modeled as a single-temperature slab in local thermal equilibrium
    Invoked to convert spectra into molecular column densities and temperatures.

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