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arxiv: 2607.00950 · v1 · pith:3YWA5VNOnew · submitted 2026-07-01 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

The Mid-Infrared Transmission Spectrum of the Temperate Sub-Neptune TOI-270 d

M{\aa}ns Holmberg , Nikku Madhusudhan , Martin Binet , Subhajit Sarkar , Frances E. Rigby , Julianne I. Moses This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-07-02 05:35 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanet atmospherestransmission spectroscopyJWST MIRIsub-NeptunesTOI-270 dmid-infraredmolecular absorption
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The pith

JWST MIRI observations of TOI-270 d show excess mid-infrared absorption beyond CH4 and CO2.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This paper presents the first mid-infrared transmission spectrum of the temperate sub-Neptune TOI-270 d, covering 5-12 micrometers with the JWST MIRI LRS instrument. The authors introduce an empirical relation linking detector settling timescale to measured flux to model and correct the spectral light curves. They report statistical preference for atmospheric models that include molecular line absorption, with ln B values between 2.8 and 5.3 over models lacking such absorption. The data display excess absorption that exceeds what methane and carbon dioxide can explain, aligning with prior near-infrared detections. An agnostic search across 203 species flags several candidate trace molecules for further evaluation.

Core claim

The MIRI transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d exhibits notable evidence of molecular features, favouring the presence of atmospheric absorption at ln B = 2.8-5.3 when comparing physically plausible models with and without molecular line absorption. The data show excess absorption beyond what could be attributed to CH4 and CO2 detected previously, in line with recent near-infrared results.

What carries the argument

The empirical relation between detector settling timescale and flux, used to model spectral light curves and extract the transmission spectrum.

If this is right

  • Additional trace molecules beyond CH4 and CO2 are present in the atmosphere of TOI-270 d.
  • Mid-infrared data from MIRI can identify atmospheric features inaccessible in the near-infrared.
  • The spectrum of TOI-270 d can be directly compared to that of K2-18 b to assess shared or distinct atmospheric properties.
  • Follow-up observations are required to confirm the identity of the additional absorbers.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Confirmation of candidate complex molecules would suggest disequilibrium chemistry or photochemical production in the atmosphere.
  • The detector-settling correction method could be applied to other MIRI datasets to increase measurement precision across sub-Neptune targets.
  • Excess mid-IR absorption may indicate carbon-bearing species more complex than simple hydrocarbons or CO2.

Load-bearing premise

The new empirical relation between detector settling timescale and flux accurately models the spectral light curves without introducing unaccounted systematics.

What would settle it

A higher-precision MIRI observation that matches a model containing only CH4 and CO2 with no residual excess absorption.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.00950 by Frances E. Rigby, Julianne I. Moses, M{\aa}ns Holmberg, Martin Binet, Nikku Madhusudhan, Subhajit Sarkar.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: MIRI LRS settling timescale as a function of flux. For the brightest targets, TOI-732 and TOI-270, we also include data points obtained without using the stan￾dard RSCD step, shown in lighter colours. The scale at the bottom illustrates the span of flux for the present TOI-270 observation at different wavelengths. The MIRI instrument exhibits a characteristic expo￾nential settling ramp at the start of each… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Comparison between the transmission spectra of TOI-270 d and K2-18 b observed with MIRI LRS. The spectrum for K2-18 b is obtained from Madhusudhan et al. (2025) and is offset by 91 ppm to align with the baseline of the TOI-270 d spectrum. Both spectra were reduced using JExoRES. For TOI-270 d, the RSCD step was not applied. integrations of each light curve. We use the relation derived in Section 2.1.2 to c… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The mid-infrared transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d obtained with the JWST MIRI LRS instrument and the JExoRES pipeline. The data points with error bars (in dark red) show the observed spectrum. The horizontal error bars correspond to the spectral bin width. The dark blue curve denotes the median retrieved spectral fit to this MIRI dataset using the canonical retrieval discussed in Section 3.2, while the t… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Retrieved spectra with the JWST MIRI LRS JExoRES data. The solid curves show median retrieved spectra obtained from the pRT retrievals conducted for the 3 species that reach moderate evidence, as described in Section 3.3. To these 3 species, we add Isoprene that reaches weak evidence (ln B ≥ 1) and has been proposed as a potential biomarker for Earth-like and H2-rich atmospheres (Zhan et al. 2021). Also sh… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: The effect of the RSCD step on the transmission spectrum. APPENDIX A. DATA REDUCTION ROBUSTNESS CHECKS We conduct a series of robustness checks to test the sensitivity of the MIRI transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d to different data reduction assumptions. First, given that our observation only has 17 groups per integration, we assess the effect of using the standard RSCD (Reset Switch Charge Decay) step. T… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Comparison between different prior assumptions for the detector settling timescale. The informed prior case uses the relation outlined in Section 2.1.2, while the broad prior case uses a broad log uniform prior for the timescale, as described in Appendix A. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wavelength ( m) 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.30 0.32 0.34 Transit depth (%) Pipeline comparison JExoRES JexoPipe [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fi… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Comparison between different data reduction pipelines. The spectra from the JExoRES and JexoPipe pipelines are shown in grey and green, respectively, and are described in Section 2. Both the default JExoRES spectrum shown and the JexoPipe spectrum omit the RSCD step. to facilitate comparison with prior studies, while the priors are expressed in terms of mass mixing ratios (which is the default parameteriza… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Posterior distributions from the canonical retrieval using the MIRI JExoRES (no RSCD step) data, as described in Section 3.2 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Spectral contributions of the 3 base molecular species, the 3 reaching ln B ≥ 2 with MIRI, and isoprene (as in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Spectral contributions of the 3 base molecular species, and the 4 reaching ln B ≥ 3 with NIRISS+NIRSpec, in the 0.6-5.2 µm range. The different curves show individual contributions from different molecules to a nominal model transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d shown in black and denoted as Combined. The model assumes a volume mixing ratio of 10−2 for CH4 and H2O; 10−3 for CO2, CS2, CH3F and SOF2; and 10−5 … view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: The near-infrared transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d obtained with the JWST NIRISS SOSS and NIRSPEC G395H instruments (Holmberg & Madhusudhan 2024; Constantinou et al. 2025). The model fit corresponds to the 4+C2H6 case, as described in Section 3.3. We choose to show this case even though CH3F and C3H5N achieve higher ln B values in the 4+X exploration (see [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p020_11.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Observations of temperate sub-Neptunes with JWST have ushered in a new era for atmospheric characterization of small exoplanets. In particular, the MIRI instrument provides a unique opportunity to search for molecules that are not easily accessible in the near-infrared, as demonstrated by recent mid-infrared observations of K2-18 b. In this work, we present the first mid-infrared transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d observed using the JWST MIRI LRS (5-12 $\mu$m) instrument. By leveraging archival MIRI LRS data, we establish a new empirical relation between the detector settling timescale and the flux, which helps accurately model the spectral light curves and improve the precision of the transmission spectrum. We find that there is notable evidence of molecular features in the MIRI transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d, favouring the presence of atmospheric absorption at $\ln B$ = 2.8-5.3 when comparing physically plausible atmospheric models with and without molecular line absorption. The data show excess absorption beyond what could be attributed to CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ detected previously, in line with recent near-infrared results. Through an agnostic search for 203 species, we identify several candidate trace molecules, most of which are complex molecules, evaluate their physical plausibility, and compare them against inferences from near-infrared observations. We also compare the MIRI spectrum of TOI-270 d to that of K2-18 b and find that random or systematic noise is unlikely to explain these observations. Future follow-up observations are necessary to definitively identify the additional absorbers beyond CH$_4$ and CO$_2$. These observations demonstrate the unique capability of JWST MIRI for atmospheric characterisation of temperate sub-Neptunes.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper presents the first JWST MIRI LRS (5-12 μm) transmission spectrum of the temperate sub-Neptune TOI-270 d. By deriving a new empirical relation between detector settling timescale and flux from archival MIRI LRS data, the authors model the spectral light curves, extract the transmission spectrum, and report notable evidence for molecular absorption (ln B = 2.8-5.3) in comparisons of physically plausible atmospheric models with and without line absorption. The spectrum shows excess absorption beyond prior CH4 and CO2 detections; an agnostic search over 203 species identifies candidate trace molecules (mostly complex), which are evaluated for plausibility and compared to NIR results. The MIRI spectrum is also compared to that of K2-18 b.

Significance. If the empirical correction and resulting spectrum are robust, the work provides the first mid-IR constraints on a temperate sub-Neptune, complements existing NIR data on TOI-270 d, and demonstrates MIRI LRS utility for such targets. The model-comparison framework and candidate-molecule search could help guide future observations if the extraction systematics are fully characterized.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract / data modeling] Abstract and data-modeling section: The new empirical relation between detector settling timescale and flux is the load-bearing step that produces the reported transmission spectrum and ln B values. The manuscript provides no functional form, list of archival visits used for derivation, fitting procedure, or independent validation (e.g., held-out visits, comparison to standard JWST pipeline reduction without the relation, or residual diagnostics). Without these, it is impossible to assess whether the relation introduces or removes systematics that affect the model evidence.
  2. [Results] Results section: The reported ln B = 2.8-5.3 range favoring molecular absorption is presented without accompanying details on the atmospheric-model priors, the exact functional form of the forward models, the treatment of error bars on the extracted spectrum, or the data-exclusion criteria. These omissions prevent evaluation of whether the evidence values are driven by the data or by modeling choices.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states that random or systematic noise is unlikely to explain the observations relative to K2-18 b, but does not specify the quantitative test or metric used for this statement.
  2. [Abstract] Notation for the Bayesian evidence (ln B) should be defined on first use and the reference model made explicit.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their detailed and constructive report. The two major comments correctly identify areas where additional methodological detail is needed to allow independent assessment of the empirical correction and the reported model evidence. We will revise the manuscript accordingly.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract / data modeling] Abstract and data-modeling section: The new empirical relation between detector settling timescale and flux is the load-bearing step that produces the reported transmission spectrum and ln B values. The manuscript provides no functional form, list of archival visits used for derivation, fitting procedure, or independent validation (e.g., held-out visits, comparison to standard JWST pipeline reduction without the relation, or residual diagnostics). Without these, it is impossible to assess whether the relation introduces or removes systematics that affect the model evidence.

    Authors: We agree that the current manuscript does not supply the full set of details required for independent evaluation. In the revised version we will add: (i) the explicit functional form of the empirical relation, (ii) the complete list of archival MIRI LRS visits used to derive it, (iii) the fitting procedure and any regularization or outlier handling, and (iv) validation tests including held-out visits, comparison to the standard JWST pipeline reduction, and residual diagnostics. These additions will be placed in a dedicated subsection of the data-modeling section. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Results] Results section: The reported ln B = 2.8-5.3 range favoring molecular absorption is presented without accompanying details on the atmospheric-model priors, the exact functional form of the forward models, the treatment of error bars on the extracted spectrum, or the data-exclusion criteria. These omissions prevent evaluation of whether the evidence values are driven by the data or by modeling choices.

    Authors: We will expand the results and methods sections to include the requested information: the full set of atmospheric-model priors, the precise functional form and assumptions of the forward models (including how molecular opacities are incorporated), the treatment of the extracted-spectrum uncertainties (including any inflation or covariance), and the data-exclusion criteria together with the rationale. This will make clear how the ln B values were computed and allow readers to judge the robustness of the evidence. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; empirical correction from archival data is independent of target spectrum and model comparisons

full rationale

The paper extracts the MIRI transmission spectrum of TOI-270 d by first deriving an empirical detector-settling relation from separate archival MIRI LRS data, then applying that relation to model the target light curves. The reported ln B = 2.8-5.3 values and candidate molecule identifications arise from subsequent Bayesian model comparisons and an agnostic search over 203 species performed on the extracted spectrum. These quantities are not equivalent by construction to the archival fit; the relation is external to the TOI-270 d dataset, and no self-citation, self-definitional loop, or fitted-input-renamed-as-prediction is present in the derivation chain. The analysis remains self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review prevents identification of specific free parameters or axioms; the central claim rests on the unstated validity of the new empirical relation and standard assumptions in transmission spectroscopy modeling.

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