Probability of anomalously large Bit-Error-Rate in long haul optical transmission

We consider a linear model of optical pulse transmission through fiber with birefringent disorder in the presence of amplifier noise. Both disorder and noise are assumed to be weak, i.e. the average bit-error rate (BER) is small. The probability of rare violent events leading to the values of BER much larger than its typical value is estimated. We show that the probability distribution has a long algebraic tail.