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arxiv: 1007.4580 · v2 · submitted 2010-07-26 · 📊 stat.CO

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Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments

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classification 📊 stat.CO
keywords computerexperimentsnuggetcommonerrormeasurementmodelssurrogate
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Most surrogate models for computer experiments are interpolators, and the most common interpolator is a Gaussian process (GP) that deliberately omits a small-scale (measurement) error term called the nugget. The explanation is that computer experiments are, by definition, "deterministic", and so there is no measurement error. We think this is too narrow a focus for a computer experiment and a statistically inefficient way to model them. We show that estimating a (non-zero) nugget can lead to surrogate models with better statistical properties, such as predictive accuracy and coverage, in a variety of common situations.

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