Probing the neutrino mass hierarchy with the rise time of a supernova burst

The rise time of a Galactic supernova (SN) bar-nue lightcurve, observable at a high-statistics experiment such as the IceCube Cherenkov detector, can provide a diagnostic tool for the neutrino mass hierarchy at "large" 1-3 leptonic mixing angle theta_13. Thanks to the combination of matter suppression of collective effects at early postbounce times on one hand and the presence of the ordinary Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein effect in the outer layers of the SN on the other hand, a sufficiently fast rise time on O(100) ms scale is indicative of an inverted mass hierarchy. We investigate results from an extensive set of stellar core-collapse simulations, providing a first exploration of the astrophysical robustness of these features. We find that for all the models analyzed (sharing the same weak interaction microphysics) the rise times for the same hierarchy are similar not only qualitatively, but also quantitatively, with the signals for the two classes of hierarchies significantly separated. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that the two cases should be distinguishable at IceCube for SNe at a typical Galactic distance 99% of the times. Finally, a preliminary survey seems to show that the faster rise time for inverted hierarchy as compared to normal hierarchy is a qualitatively robust feature predicted by several simulation groups. Since the viability of this signature ultimately depends on the quantitative assessment of theoretical/numerical uncertainties, our results motivate an extensive campaign of comparison of different code predictions at early accretion times with implementation of microphysics of comparable sophistication, including effects such like nucleon recoils in weak interactions.