The origin of metal-poor stars on prograde disk orbits in FIRE simulations of Milky Way-mass galaxies

In hierarchical structure formation, metal-poor stars in and around the Milky Way (MW) originate primarily from mergers of lower-mass galaxies. A common expectation is therefore that metal-poor stars should have isotropic, dispersion-dominated orbits that do not correlate strongly with the MW disk. However, recent observations of stars in the MW show that metal-poor ([Fe/H] < -2) stars are preferentially on prograde orbits with respect to the disk. Using the FIRE-2 suite of cosmological zoom-in simulations of MW/M31-mass galaxies, we investigate the prevalence and origin of prograde metal-poor stars. Almost all (11 of 12) of our simulations have metal-poor stars on preferentially prograde orbits today and throughout most of their history: we thus predict that this is a generic feature of MW/M31-mass galaxies. The typical prograde-to-retrograde ratio is ~2:1, which depends weakly on stellar metallicity at Fe/H] < -1. These trends predicted by our simulations agree well with MW observations. Prograde metal-poor stars originate largely from a single LMC/SMC-mass gas-rich merger 7 - 12.5 Gyr ago, which deposited existing metal-poor stars and significant gas on an orbital vector that sparked the formation of and/or shaped the orientation of a long-lived stellar disk, giving rise to a prograde bias for all low-metallicity stars. We find sub-dominant contributions from in-situ stars formed in the host galaxy before this merger, and in some cases, additional massive mergers. We find few clear correlations between any properties of our MW/M31-mass galaxies at z = 0 and the degree of this prograde bias as a result of diverse merger scenarios.