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Cover Your Basis: Comprehensive Data-Driven Characterization of the Binary Black Hole Population

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arxiv 2210.12834 v3 pith:NBQUUH5I submitted 2022-10-23 astro-ph.HE astro-ph.GA

Bruce Edelman , Ben Farr , Zoheyr Doctor This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.HEastro-ph.GA
keywords distributionpopulationmassmergermodelsnon-parametricpeakspower
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abstract

We introduce the first complete non-parametric model for the astrophysical distribution of the binary black hole (BBH) population. Constructed from basis splines, we use these models to conduct the most comprehensive data-driven investigation of the BBH population to date, simultaneously fitting non-parametric models for the BBH mass ratio, spin magnitude and misalignment, and redshift distributions. With GWTC-3, we report the same features previously recovered with similarly flexible models of the mass distribution, most notably the peaks in merger rates at primary masses of ${\sim}10\,M_\odot$ and ${\sim}35\,M_\odot$. Our model reports a suppressed merger rate at low primary masses and a mass ratio distribution consistent with a power law. We infer a distribution for primary spin misalignments that peaks away from alignment, supporting conclusions of recent work. We find broad agreement with the previous inferences of the spin magnitude distribution: the majority of BBH spins are small ($a<0.5$), the distribution peaks at $a\sim0.2$, and there is mild support for a non-spinning subpopulation, which may be resolved with larger catalogs. With a modulated power law describing the BBH merger rate's evolution in redshift, we see hints of the rate evolution either flattening or decreasing at $z\sim0.2-0.5$, but the full distribution remains entirely consistent with a monotonically increasing power law. We conclude with a discussion of the astrophysical context of our new findings and how non-parametric methods in gravitational-wave population inference are uniquely poised to complement to the parametric approach as we enter the data-rich era of gravitational-wave astronomy.

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Cited by 7 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. A Four-dimensional Model-agnostic Probe into the Astrophysical Origins of Binary Black Hole Subpopulations

    astro-ph.HE 2026-07 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

    A GPU-accelerated binned Gaussian process yields the first model-agnostic 4D BBH population in (m1, q, χeff, χp), revealing four mass-based subpopulations and new spin-mass-ratio correlations.

  2. When (not) to trust Monte Carlo approximations for hierarchical Bayesian inference

    astro-ph.HE 2025-09 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

    A unified error statistic E-hat measures information lost to Monte Carlo noise in hierarchical Bayesian inference, with a recommended cutoff of 0.2 bits.

  3. A new group of low-spin $50-70M_\odot$ Black Holes and the high pair-instability mass cutoff

    astro-ph.HE 2025-10 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    GWTC-4.0 reveals low-spin black holes up to ~68.5 Msun, implying a higher pair-instability mass cutoff and a lower 12C(alpha,gamma)16O rate.

  4. Aligned Hierarchical Black Hole Mergers in Active-Galactic-Nuclei Disks Revealed by GWTC-4

    astro-ph.HE 2025-09 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    GWTC-4 reveals a high-spin, high-mass black hole subpopulation with spin-orbit alignment, interpreted as evidence for hierarchical mergers in AGN disks.

  5. Nowhere left to hide: revealing realistic gravitational-wave populations in high dimensions and high resolution with PixelPop

    astro-ph.HE 2025-06 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Modeling all significant correlations with the nonparametric model PixelPop recovers the true black-hole merger rate in a simulated 400-event gravitational-wave catalog, while simpler models introduce bias.

  6. The Long Road to Alignment: Measuring Black Hole Spin Orientation with Expanding Gravitational-Wave Datasets

    astro-ph.HE 2025-05 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Simulated gravitational-wave catalogs show spin-tilt peaks at alignment are hard to confirm even with 1500 events, while integrated tilt fractions are robust.

  7. The first decade of gravitational-wave measurements of black hole spins

    gr-qc 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 1.0 of 10

    A review summarizing formation-channel predictions, waveform effects, and population-level constraints on stellar-mass black hole spins from the first decade of gravitational-wave observations.

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