Posets for $F$-polynomials in cluster algebras from surfaces

We prove a simple formula for arbitrary cluster variables in the marked surfaces model. As part of the formula, we associate a labeled poset to each tagged arc, such that the associated $F$-polynomial is a weighted sum of order ideals. Each element of the poset has a weight, and the weight of an ideal is the product of the weights of the elements of the ideal. In the unpunctured case, the weight on each element is a single $\hat{y}_i$, in the usual sense of principal coefficients. In the presence of punctures, some elements may have weights of the form $\hat{y}_i/\hat{y}_j$. Our search for such a formula was inspired by the Fundamental Theorem of Finite Distributive Lattices combined with work of Gregg Musiker, Ralf Schiffler, and Lauren Williams that, in some cases, organized the terms of the $F$-polynomial into a distributive lattice. The proof consists of a simple and poset-theoretically natural argument in a special case, followed by a hyperbolic geometry argument using a cover of the surface to prove the general case.