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Population Synthesis of Gravitational Wave Sources

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arxiv 2502.03523 v2 pith:MREH6E5C submitted 2025-02-05 astro-ph.HE astro-ph.SRgr-qc

classification astro-ph.HEastro-ph.SRgr-qc
keywords populationpopulationssynthesisgravitationalstellarwavebeendiscuss
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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The simulation of gravitational wave source populations and their progenitors is an endeavor more than eighty years in the making. This is in part due to a wide variety of theoretical uncertainties that must be taken into account when describing how stellar populations evolve over cosmic time to produce double stellar remnant binaries. Population synthesis software has been developed as a means to investigate these uncertainties under a wide variety of physical assumptions and stellar population formation environments. In this chapter we discuss the development history of population synthesis software with a special focus on work aimed at understanding the formation of gravitational wave populations. We detail the assortment of population synthesis tools in use today that simulate GW populations which are born and evolve in different astrophysical environments. We further discuss the GW population rates and features associated with each environment that have been predicted for both ground and space-based GW detectors. We finish with considerations of future work that combines possible constraints from electromagnetic surveys that may provide key findings that break current degeneracies in population synthesis predictions of GW source populations.

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Cited by 4 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. A Four-dimensional Model-agnostic Probe into the Astrophysical Origins of Binary Black Hole Subpopulations

    astro-ph.HE 2026-07 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

    A GPU-accelerated binned Gaussian process yields the first model-agnostic 4D BBH population in (m1, q, χeff, χp), revealing four mass-based subpopulations and new spin-mass-ratio correlations.

  2. Emulating compact binary population synthesis simulations with uncertainty quantification and model comparison using Bayesian normalizing flows

    astro-ph.HE 2025-06 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A Bayesian normalizing flow trained with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for population synthesis emulators of black hole mergers.

  3. Comparing population synthesis models of compact double white dwarfs to electromagnetic observations

    astro-ph.SR 2025-05 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    BPASS underpredicts the number of short-period double white dwarfs observed in the Milky Way by at least a factor of ten, while the SeBa model is broadly consistent with observations beyond 500 parsecs.

  4. Exploring the astrophysical origins of binary black holes using normalising flows

    astro-ph.HE 2025-08 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    Normalizing flows trained on five population synthesis models interpolate between simulation inputs and, applied to gravitational wave data, favor low spins, high common-envelope efficiency, and a dominant common-enve...

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