Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

As of 14 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 35 of 35 outbound references and 10 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2506.00723.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2506.00723 v1

Coverage vector

measured 35 of 35 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:13.238164Z

measured 45 of 45 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00

measured 10 of 10 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-08T04:31:04.385535Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-07-03T14:48:32.596036Z

Reference resolution

35 of 35 outbound references displayed

verified exact2
verified fuzzy22
unresolved11
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation be73dd28-81e0-42a8-8dc8-e01252230a94 · outbound

This paper cites Who predicted 2022?, 2023.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Who predicted 2022?, 2023

Reference 1

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:17.610428Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 15730f2b-f060-411c-b62f-2c89ace57b7b · outbound

This paper cites A backtesting protocol in the era of machine learning.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters A backtesting protocol in the era of machine learning

Reference 2

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:17.485240Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation ce37d9e5-8aa5-4eec-9649-fe766e973ef4 · outbound

This paper cites The probability of backtest overfitting.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters The probability of backtest overfitting

Reference 3

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:17.360878Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation c33d3321-55c5-4d0e-8c73-437e02d93db8 · outbound

This paper cites Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting, 2024.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting, 2024

Reference 4

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:17.233335Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation de7a0767-3adf-40c2-a02e-3b53253eb1c4 · outbound

This paper cites Long-horizon predictability: a cautionary tale.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Long-horizon predictability: a cautionary tale

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:17.071504Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 4c3f244a-ed12-4e92-89a0-e1d1596abd4e · outbound

This paper cites AI forecasting bots incoming: comment section, 2024.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters AI forecasting bots incoming: comment section, 2024

Reference 6

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:16.940861Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 037507d0-6e59-480a-8909-10b6c301879e · outbound

This paper cites Point-in-time vs.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Point-in-time vs

Reference 7

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:16.780192Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 81d3b48b-6987-454d-a686-529767dd38d6 · outbound

This paper cites Are LLMs Prescient? A Continuous Evaluation using Daily News as the Oracle.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Are LLMs Prescient? A Continuous Evaluation using Daily News as the Oracle

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:10.072436Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 1034a219-7dc6-4945-bbc2-7064498400e2 · outbound

This paper cites Polymarket settles a market incorrectly -- again, 2024.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Polymarket settles a market incorrectly -- again, 2024

Reference 9

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:16.689678Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 084f463d-3204-4746-9242-a9438e42eb8c · outbound

This paper cites Survivorship bias and mutual fund performance.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Survivorship bias and mutual fund performance

Reference 10

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:16.564852Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 93bbe428-7ea9-49c9-9544-5ce20d872745 · outbound

This paper cites Knowledge cutoff issues of GPT -4o regarding Phan et al.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Knowledge cutoff issues of GPT -4o regarding Phan et al

Reference 11

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:13.757585Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 1c467d53-bd57-4b8a-9770-f932f675f4ec · outbound

This paper cites Approaching human-level forecasting with language models, 2024.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Approaching human-level forecasting with language models, 2024

Reference 12

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:16.416133Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 2f2fb106-dc43-41f6-b143-ff665d282ee4 · outbound

This paper cites Introducing the SalemCSPi forecasting tournament, 2022.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Introducing the SalemCSPi forecasting tournament, 2022

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:16.267368Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 10b7605b-328b-414b-bfb2-c073521dcc7b · outbound

This paper cites The emerging science of machine learning benchmarks.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters The emerging science of machine learning benchmarks

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:10.531282Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4206fdb4-2ab0-45c9-8bfb-4752d2fa8abb · outbound

This paper cites Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:10.604051Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a23e1240-1b11-4fd8-b1a1-b396f8969ca0 · outbound

This paper cites asgeirtj/system\_prompts\_leaks/claude.txt, 2025.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters asgeirtj/system\_prompts\_leaks/claude.txt, 2025

Reference 16

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:16.056698Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 4261ec35-ba33-4678-b329-acfc6b24422d · outbound

This paper cites ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:10.828930Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 3af1629b-f9e9-4d1c-893f-d1f57703d2f4 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Unresolved cited work

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:15.733151Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation c3a89c4a-108d-4a58-a55e-a451665968ab · outbound

This paper cites Questionable practices in machine learning.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Questionable practices in machine learning

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:11.167415Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation e4337b8f-8b2c-44c6-b27f-7d7c9406e5ab · outbound

This paper cites Acx2025 tournament, 2025.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Acx2025 tournament, 2025

Reference 20

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:15.449049Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation f1dd5fa7-feed-4d11-8c08-b93fb932308d · outbound

This paper cites Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:11.460739Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation cb59e2c4-b5c7-4314-91db-9dc4371b1c52 · outbound

This paper cites LLMs are superhuman forecasters, 2024.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters LLMs are superhuman forecasters, 2024

Reference 22

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:15.261662Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 03c3e534-b96b-4478-a828-ba15118f16e4 · outbound

This paper cites White House planning face-to-face meeting with Biden , Xi , 2023.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters White House planning face-to-face meeting with Biden , Xi , 2023

Reference 23

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:15.152038Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 620e4317-0d9c-4058-8413-8af487b3e1ed · outbound

This paper cites Against calibration, 2023.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Against calibration, 2023

Reference 24

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:14.980940Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 293735f7-c0f8-4e09-975c-8e979dfeb9e0 · outbound

This paper cites Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations

Reference 25

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:14.776963Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation bdbc0f9b-f1ae-4efe-a513-e64993ed50e7 · outbound

This paper cites Wisdom of the silicon crowd: LLM ensemble prediction capabilities rival human crowd accuracy.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Wisdom of the silicon crowd: LLM ensemble prediction capabilities rival human crowd accuracy

Reference 26

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:14.605476Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 648b7389-af1c-4a8e-8eb0-89b27978a1cd · outbound

This paper cites Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms

Reference 27

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:13.513497Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 25dddb8a-09c6-497c-b130-65a4dcef2246 · outbound

This paper cites Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk

Reference 28

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:14.404486Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 74a58ae5-6806-4c10-8ac8-76e40365a06d · outbound

This paper cites Risk-adjusted performance of mutual funds.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Risk-adjusted performance of mutual funds

Reference 29

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:14.286663Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation b5daf215-3ab5-484f-bcd8-4303013fc21f · outbound

This paper cites PROPHET : An inferable future forecasting benchmark with causal intervened likelihood estimation.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters PROPHET : An inferable future forecasting benchmark with causal intervened likelihood estimation

Reference 30

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:12.780222Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5860ebad-17b9-471c-98f0-d79321ead696 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Unresolved cited work

Reference 31

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:12.926278Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0b6b46fc-3ac1-4d28-be7b-f2bda0e20f4c · outbound

This paper cites Biden , Xi talks in san francisco, 2023.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Biden , Xi talks in san francisco, 2023

Reference 32

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:14.088043Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 45783a36-cbed-4005-8c2a-bace7637202f · outbound

This paper cites Haooowang/llm-knowledge-cutoff-dates, 2025.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Haooowang/llm-knowledge-cutoff-dates, 2025

Reference 33

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:13.939127Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 563017a7-53f1-4f38-8427-44b697a05264 · outbound

This paper cites Continual Learning for Large Language Models: A Survey.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Continual Learning for Large Language Models: A Survey

Reference 34

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:13.143938Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f9828a89-a1a4-4c55-8a63-67ecea5018c4 · outbound

This paper cites Forecasting Future World Events with Neural Networks.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Forecasting Future World Events with Neural Networks

Reference 35

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:13.238164Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

Observation ea63d7ae-fdf2-44c3-a6f4-daf17c074fd1 · inbound

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts cites this paper.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.301050Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation dc9bdf19-a263-4c7d-ace7-a5a1d7382167 · inbound

Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs cites this paper.

Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 33

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T12:06:01.790093Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation d7b565c1-5342-4cde-8ccc-302464aeda7e · inbound

Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs cites this paper.

Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 33

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T19:33:20.775008Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4fddfe23-5ead-4288-9c8b-e0e9468a9566 · inbound

OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking cites this paper.

OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 10

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T23:41:16.852549Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 581b2b62-0eb3-4eb6-8def-1f9932c4e0ac · inbound

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most cites this paper.

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 6

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-22T05:24:38.182496Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 1308da45-df6a-4fa8-9541-48f021f3391b · inbound

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most cites this paper.

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 6

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-25T06:05:26.173990Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 96a2d95c-533a-408f-a97b-695b4234adc6 · inbound

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting cites this paper.

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 15

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T19:47:18.746566Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation f722227c-1417-4514-a413-5aff1b4cdb29 · inbound

Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry cites this paper.

Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 23

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T14:48:32.597385Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 7af55740-3045-4809-8594-c92e94661666 · inbound

Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models cites this paper.

Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 24

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T14:36:29.370385Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7f3bb58b-25dc-4411-b7fa-83f44904762a · inbound

Temporal Leakage in LLM Backtesting: Measurement, Validation, and Adjusted Scores cites this paper.

Temporal Leakage in LLM Backtesting: Measurement, Validation, and Adjusted Scores Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-08T04:31:04.385535Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.