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The ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO): I. Program Overview and Summary of First Results

T0 review · 3 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-07 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read A 30-disk ALMA survey finds that protoplanetary gas disks lose most of their mass within a few million years.

desk verdict AGE-PRO I delivers the first systematic gas mass and size census across disk lifetimes; the order-of-magnitude early decline is probably real, but the Ophiuchus anchor is biased and the cross-region comparability assumption is untestable, so the evolutionary reading should stay provisional. read the letter →

arxiv 2506.10719 v2 pith:HORRXSMJ submitted 2025-06-12 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.GAastro-ph.SR

Ke Zhang , Laura M. Pérez , Ilaria Pascucci , Paola Pinilla , Lucas A. Cieza , John Carpenter , Leon Trapman , Dingshan Deng
show 14 more authors
Carolina Agurto-Gangas Anibal Sierra Nicolás T. Kurtovic Dary A. Ruíz-Rodríguez Miguel Vioque James Miley Benoît Tabone Camilo González-Ruilova Rossella Anania Giovanni P. Rosotti Estephani TorresVillanueva Michiel R. Hogerheijde Kamber Schwarz Aleksandra Kuznetsova
This is my paper
classification astro-ph.EPastro-ph.GAastro-ph.SR
keywords ProtoplanetarydisksGasdiskmassGas-to-dustratioCOisotopologuesN2H+ALMAevolutionMHDwinds
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

AGE-PRO is an ALMA survey designed to measure how the gas in protoplanetary disks changes over the disk lifetime, using 30 carefully matched disks around M3-K6 stars in three regions of different age. Its central result is that the median gas disk mass drops by an order of magnitude between Ophiuchus (<1 Myr) and Lupus (1-3 Myr), from about 6 to 0.68 Jupiter masses, and then stays roughly constant in Upper Sco (2-6 Myr) at 0.44 Jupiter masses. The dust mass keeps declining over the same intervals, so the gas-to-dust mass ratio swings from 122 to 46 and back to 120, a sign that gas and dust evolve on different timescales. This matters because planet formation models depend on how much gas remains and for how long, and the result favors MHD wind-driven accretion over turbulent viscosity.

What carries the argument

The central instrument is an age-ladder sample: ten disks per region, selected from identical stellar mass and continuum luminosity ranges, in Ophiuchus (0.5-1 Myr), Lupus (1-3 Myr), and Upper Sco (2-6 Myr), observed with the same ALMA line setups ($^{12}$CO, $^{13}$CO, C$^{18}$O, and N$_2$H$^+$ for the Class II disks; C$^{17}$O for the embedded ones). Gas masses come from comparing these line fluxes plus the 1.3 mm continuum to a large grid of thermo-chemical models; the N$_2$H$^+$-to-CO ratio constrains the CO abundance and breaks the usual CO-to-H$_2$ conversion degeneracy that has made gas masses uncertain.

What would settle it

A direct test would be to measure median gas masses with the same method in another very young region such as Perseus or Orion and in another 1-3 Myr region; if a young region shows median gas masses near the Lupus value, or if an independent gas mass tracer such as HD lines gives substantially different Lupus and Upper Sco masses, the order-of-magnitude early decline would be in doubt. The same data would also show whether the Ophiuchus sample's high-inclination bias explains its high masses.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's core discovery, stated on its own terms, is that the gaseous component of protoplanetary disks is already largely depleted by 1-3 Myr while the solid component continues to evolve: median gas masses fall from 6 Jupiter masses in Ophiuchus to 0.68 Jupiter masses in Lupus to 0.44 Jupiter masses in Upper Sco, with a wide spread of about two orders of magnitude within each region, whereas median dust masses decline steadily from 14.4 to 4.7 to 1.9 Earth masses. The resulting gas-to-dust ratio decreases from 122 to 46 and then rises to 120, which the paper interprets as dust growth and drift outpacing gas depletion after 1 Myr. Companion population-synthesis models reproduce the median properties only with MHD wind-driven accretion from initially compact disks with a time-declining magnetic field; turbulence-driven models overpredict the gas masses of disks older than 1 Myr by an order of magnitude.

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing premise is that the three regions started from similar initial disk conditions and followed similar evolutionary paths, so a difference between Ophiuchus, Lupus, and Upper Sco can be read as an age difference; if Ophiuchus simply formed more massive disks, the evolutionary ladder collapses.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • The median gas disk mass falls by an order of magnitude before 1-3 Myr (from 6 to 0.68 Jupiter masses) and then changes little out to 2-6 Myr (0.44 Jupiter masses).
  • Gas and dust disk masses decline on different timescales, so the median gas-to-dust ratio first decreases from 122 to 46 and then increases to 120.
  • Typical gas disk radii measured from $^{12}$CO are 74-110 au, much smaller than the 100-1000 au gas disks of the well-studied massive disks.
  • Population-synthesis fits favor MHD wind-driven accretion over turbulent viscosity; the turbulence-driven models overpredict the gas mass of disks older than 1 Myr by an order of magnitude.
  • CO is near interstellar abundance in the embedded disks but depleted to about $10^{-5}$ in 1-6 Myr disks, with no further depletion from Lupus to Upper Sco.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Inference: the early gas depletion implies the main epoch of gas-giant formation must be pushed toward the first million years, before the reservoir is drained.
  • Inference: because the gas-to-dust ratio is non-monotonic, continuum-only surveys cannot rank disks by evolutionary stage; dust mass is not a safe proxy for remaining gas.
  • Inference: the Lupus-to-Upper Sco plateau could be partly a survivor effect, since only the most massive disks remain at 2-6 Myr; the median of survivors need not trace the evolution of any individual disk.
  • Inference: a decisive extension is to apply the same line set to a fourth region of intermediate age or to re-measure the same regions with independent gas tracers such as HD, which would separate initial-condition differences from true time evolution.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper presents the AGE-PRO ALMA Large Program overview and first results, based on a sample of 30 disks around M3-K6 stars in Ophiuchus (<1 Myr), Lupus (1-3 Myr), and Upper Sco (2-6 Myr). It describes the survey design, sample selection, calibration, imaging, and the methods used in companion papers to derive gas masses, dust masses, and gas disk sizes. The headline result is a decline in median gas disk mass from ~6 MJup in Ophiuchus to 0.68 MJup in Lupus and 0.44 MJup in Upper Sco, with a gas-to-dust mass ratio that falls from ~122 to 46 and then rises to 120. Population synthesis models for MHD wind-driven accretion with compact initial disks and declining magnetic fields are reported to reproduce the median disk properties, whereas turbulent-viscosity models overpredict older disk gas masses by an order of magnitude. The paper explicitly frames the age interpretation as conditional on the assumption that the three regions had similar initial conditions and evolutionary paths.

Significance. If the main age trend holds, this is the first systematic population-level constraint on gas disk mass evolution, with direct bearing on disk evolution mechanisms and planet formation timescales. The paper has several concrete strengths: a well-defined sample with a narrow stellar mass range, a public data release (visibilities, image cubes, radial profiles, measured properties), careful self-calibration procedures, and explicit acknowledgement of key limitations such as survivor bias and the cross-region comparability assumption. The comparison between MHD wind and turbulent-viscosity population synthesis is a valuable step forward. However, the robustness of the headline trend depends on two unquantified issues: the inclination-biased Ophiuchus anchor and the methodological break between the embedded and Class II gas mass measurements. These issues are acknowledged in the text but not quantitatively addressed, so the central claim is currently defensible only with substantial caveats.

major comments (3)
  1. [7.1.2, 2.1] The Ophiuchus sample contains 4 disks with inclinations >=70 deg and 3 with >=60 deg, a strong excess over random orientation. The paper notes this in Section 7.1.2 but does not assess how it affects the C17O line fluxes used for the Oph gas masses, which anchor the reported order-of-magnitude decline. Because high-inclination disks have larger projected column densities and can have systematically different CO line fluxes and optical depths, the inferred median Oph gas mass of ~6 MJup may be biased. Please quantify the inclination effect (e.g., a correlation test of gas mass vs inclination, or a radiative-transfer calculation of the C17O flux dependence on inclination) or state explicitly that the Oph median is not robust until such a test is performed.
  2. [2.4.1, 4.3, 7.4] The Ophiuchus gas masses are derived from C17O assuming ISM-level CO abundance, whereas the Lupus and Upper Sco masses are derived from 13CO/C18O/N2H+ with model-constrained CO abundance. A systematic offset between these two methods would directly affect the reported decline, and the paper does not provide a cross-calibration on common objects. In addition, the claim in Section 7.4 that the embedded CO abundance is confirmed to be ISM-level is partly circular: the Oph gas masses already assume this abundance, so the median gas-to-dust ratio of 122 is a consistency check rather than an independent confirmation. Please add a discussion of the systematic uncertainty from the method break, and either provide independent evidence for ISM xCO in embedded disks or reframe the Section 7.4 statement.
  3. [2.1, 7.1.1] The three-region age ladder assumes similar initial conditions and evolutionary paths, as stated in the abstract and Section 2.1. The paper's own Section 7.1.1 says that the similarity between the younger and older regions remains unclear. Given that ten Ophiuchus disks anchor the entire evolutionary trend, the paper should provide a sensitivity analysis: for example, what initial-mass offset between Ophiuchus and the older regions would bring the Oph median down to the Lupus median? Without such an analysis, the 'appears to decrease' conclusion is untestable from the current data. A more cautious framing that separates the inclination-bias correction from the initial-condition assumption would help readers assess the claim.
minor comments (6)
  1. [3.1] In the self-calibration description, 'depdending on the source SNR' should read 'depending on the source SNR.'
  2. [2.4.1] 'the more rare C17O line' should read 'the rarer C17O line.'
  3. [6.3.2] The sentence 'The results showed that the median gas mass of the three regions appears to decrease' mixes past and present tense; suggest 'The results show that the median gas mass of the three regions appears to decrease.'
  4. [Figure 8 caption] The caption states 'RCO,90% are measured as radius that encloses 90%'; it should read 'RCO,90% is the radius enclosing 90%.'
  5. [7.1.2] The statement that the Ophiuchus sample is highly inclined would be clearer if it mentioned that these disks were not spatially resolved in previous surveys, so the inclination bias was only revealed by the new AGE-PRO continuum imaging.
  6. [6.1] The paper describes the Oph-to-Lupus gas mass drop as 'one order of magnitude,' but the medians differ by a factor of about 9; consider 'nearly an order of magnitude' for precision.

Circularity Check

1 steps flagged · score 6.0 of 10

The claimed confirmation of ISM-level CO in embedded Ophiuchus disks is circular: those gas masses were derived assuming ISM-level xCO, and the resulting gas-to-dust ratio near 100 is then presented as independent support for that same abundance.

  1. self definitional [Section 2.4.1 and Section 7.4 (also Table 4 and Figure 8)]
    "For Ophiuchus sources (<1 Myr), we used C17O (2-1) and assume ISM level xCO of 10−4 to measure gas disk masses. ... Using the Ophiuchus sample from AGE-PRO, we confirm that the CO abundance at the embedded stage is indeed close to the ISM level. This is supported by our finding of high gas disk masses derived from C17O (2-1) line fluxes and a median gas-to-dust mass ratio close to the ISM ratio of 100."

    The Ophiuchus gas masses are computed by assuming ISM-level xCO as an input, and the resulting gas-to-dust ratio (~122) is then cited as evidence that the embedded CO abundance is ISM-level. This is the same assumption reappearing as a 'confirmation': the CO abundance fixes the conversion from C17O flux to gas mass, the gas mass divided by dust mass returns a ratio near 100, and that ratio is used to validate the abundance. No independent constraint (e.g., N2H+, as used for Lupus and Upper Sco) is applied to the Ophiuchus disks, so the embedded xCO confirmation reduces to the input assumption by construction. The Ophiuchus point in the headline gas-to-dust ratio trend is therefore partly constructed rather than measured.

full rationale

The central gas-mass evolutionary claim rests on observed C17O, 13CO, C18O, and N2H+ line fluxes, Keplerian masking, and thermochemical model grids; those measurements and the Lupus/Upper Sco xCO constraints are not circular. The cross-region 'similar initial conditions' premise is an explicit assumption, not a circular reduction, and the paper acknowledges its limitations in Section 7.1. However, one clear circular step exists: Ophiuchus gas masses are derived assuming ISM-level xCO, and Section 7.4 then presents the resulting gas-to-dust ratio near 100 as confirmation that embedded CO is ISM-level. That confirmation uses the output of the assumption to validate the assumption itself, and the Ophiuchus g2d value feeding the headline non-monotonic gas-to-dust trend is partly constructed from that input. Because this circularity affects an auxiliary but headline-adjacent claim rather than the main direction of gas-mass decline, the overall score is 6 (partial circularity) rather than higher.

Assumptions & free parameters 5 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central measurements, line fluxes and disk sizes, are direct observables. The derived quantities, gas masses and gas-to-dust ratios, depend on assumed dust opacities, dust temperatures, an assumed ISM-level CO abundance for the embedded sample, and on thermochemical model grids. The population synthesis comparison depends on model parameter choices such as compact initial disks and a declining magnetic field. No genuinely invented entities such as new particles or forces are introduced.

free parameters (5)
  • xCO (CO-to-H2 abundance ratio) for Ophiuchus sample = 1e-4 (assumed ISM level)
    Gas masses of the embedded Ophiuchus disks are derived from C17O fluxes assuming ISM-level CO abundance (Sections 2.4.1 and 4.3). The gas-to-dust ratio near 122 and the CO abundance confirmation in Section 7.4 depend on this assumption.
  • Dust opacity scaling kappa_nu = 2.3 (nu/230 GHz) cm2/g
    Standard Hildebrand (1983) conversion used for dust masses in Section 4.3. Dust masses enter the gas-to-dust ratio and dust evolution comparisons.
  • Average dust temperature = 20 K
    Adopted for dust mass estimates in Section 4.3, following Andrews et al. (2013) and Manara et al. (2023).
  • Initial disk radius in population synthesis models = 5-10 au (compact)
    The MHD wind-driven model match in Section 6.1 requires initially compact disks, as stated in Section 6.3.3 and detailed in Tabone et al. (2025).
  • Magnetic field time evolution in population synthesis models = declining with time
    The MHD wind-driven model match requires a magnetic field that declines with time, per Section 6.1 and Section 6.3.3; the functional form is deferred to Tabone et al. (2025).
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption The three star-forming regions had similar initial conditions and evolutionary paths.
    Explicitly stated in the abstract and Section 2.1, defended in Section 7.1.1. The entire age-ladder interpretation depends on this premise, and direct validation for the embedded Ophiuchus population is unavailable.
  • domain assumption CO isotopologue and N2H+ line fluxes trace total gas mass through thermochemical models.
    Gas masses rest on comparisons with a large DALI thermochemical model grid described in AGE-PRO V (Trapman et al. 2025a), as outlined in Section 4.3.
  • ad hoc to paper ISM-level C/H and O/H elemental abundances apply to embedded disks younger than 1 Myr.
    Assumed for the Ophiuchus gas mass estimates in Sections 2.4.1 and 4.3; the same assumption is then used to support the ISM-level CO abundance claim in Section 7.4.
  • domain assumption Isochronal ages from Baraffe et al. (2015) and Feiden (2016) evolutionary tracks give reliable relative ages for Lupus and Upper Sco.
    Individual ages and stellar masses for Lupus and Upper Sco are derived from these tracks in Section 2.2; the region age ordering is the backbone of the evolution claim.
  • domain assumption The 90% flux radius of 12CO emission traces the gas disk size.
    Gas disk sizes for Lupus and Upper Sco are measured as the radius enclosing 90% of 12CO (2-1) flux, fitted with beam-convolved Nuker profiles (Section 4.2 and AGE-PRO XI). The mapping from emission radius to physical gas radius is model-dependent.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of The ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO): I. Program Overview and Summary of First Results." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/HORRXSMJ

@misc{pith2026250610719,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: The ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO): I. Program Overview and Summary of First Results},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/HORRXSMJ}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2506.10719}
}
abstract

We present the ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO), a Large Program of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). AGE-PRO aims to systematically trace the evolution of gas disk mass and size throughout the lifetime of protoplanetary disks. It uses a carefully selected sample of 30 disks around M3-K6 stars in three nearby star-forming regions: Ophiuchus (0.5-1 Myr), Lupus (1-3 Myr), and Upper Sco (2-6 Myr). Assuming the three regions had similar initial conditions and evolutionary paths, we find the median gas disk mass appears to decrease with age. Ophiuchus disks have the highest median gas mass (6 M$_{\rm Jup}$), while the Lupus and Upper Sco disks have significantly lower median masses (0.68 and 0.44 M$_{\rm Jup}$, respectively). Notably, the gas and dust disk masses appear to evolve on different timescales. This is evidenced by the median gas-to-dust mass ratio, which decreases from 122 in the youngest disks ($<$1 Myr) to 46 in Lupus disks, and then increases to 120 in the Upper Sco disks. The median gas disk sizes range between 74-110 au, suggesting that typical gas disks are much smaller than those of well-studied, massive disks. Population synthesis models suggest that magneto-hydrodynamic wind-driven accretion can reproduce median disk properties across all three regions, when assuming compact disks with a declining magnetic field over time. In contrast, turbulent-driven models overestimate gas masses of $>$1 Myr disks by an order of magnitude. Here we discuss the program's motivation, survey design, sample selection, observation and data calibration processes, and highlight the initial results.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2506.10719 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Top: Hertzsprung-Russell diagram of the AGE-PRO sample. The pre-main-sequence evolutionary tracks and isochrones are from Feiden (2016); Baraffe et al. (2015). Ophiuchus sources do not have well-constrained stellar luminosity due to high extinction. We instead plot their luminosity ranges based on statistical ages of Class I and Flat spectrum sources (0.5-1 Myr) (Evans et al. 2009). Bottom: 1.3mm-continuum luminosit… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Stellar mass distributions in the AGE-PRO sam￾ples of the Ophiuchus, Lupus, and Upper Sco star-forming regions. The squares show the median stellar mass in each region, suggesting similar median stellar masses. H2 mass is HD, which has only been detected in three protoplanetary disks by Herschel (Bergin et al. 2013; McClure et al. 2016; Kama et al. 2020) and is not observ￾able with current facilities. Millimeter con… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. 1.3 mm (Left panels) and 12CO (2-1) moment zero images (Right panels) of the AGE-PRO sample. The orders are from the brightest 1.3 mm continuum source to the faintest one within each star-forming region. Images are 2′′×2 ′′and colors are peak normalized and shown with a linear color stretch. The exception is Lupus 10 (V1094 Sco) which is shown in a 5 ′′×5 ′′image and its continuum image is shown with an asinh stretc… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (10 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Example of the 1.3 mm continuum and moment zero images of key science lines observed in the AGE-PRO program. The full gallery of line images are shown in Ruiz-Rodriguez et al. (2025); Deng et al. (2025); Agurto-Gangas et al. (2025). The white contours indicate the 3 σ …
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Example of how the curve-of-growth method is used for measuring integrated fluxes and disk sizes. Shown from left to right are the 12CO (2-1) integrated intensity map of Lupus 3, its deprojected azimuthally averaged radial profile, and the integrated flux curve-of-grow…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Integrated line fluxes of the Lupus and Upper Sco disks. 10 0 10 2 Flux@150pc (mJy) 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 p-value =0.08 1.3mm Lupus Upper Sco 10 2 10 4 Flux@150pc (mJy. km/s) 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 p-value =0.49 12CO (2-1) 10 1 10 3 Flux@150pc (mJy. km/s) 0.00 0.2…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: The cumulative distributions of continuum and line fluxes of the Lupus and Upper Sco sample. The p-values are from logrank tests for the two cumulative distributions, including upper limits. The p-values suggest that the continuum distributions of the two regions might…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Comparison of disk properties in the Ophiuchus, Lupus, and Upper Sco samples. The circles are individual values and the squares are median values listed in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_8.png]
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: shows the spectral energy distributions (SED) of the 30 disks included in the AGE-PRO sample. 16 14 12 10 8 Oph_1 Oph_2 Oph_3 Oph_4 Oph_5 16 14 12 10 8 Oph_6 Oph_7 Oph_8 Oph_9 Oph_10 16 14 12 10 8 Lupus_1 Lupus_2 Lupus_3 Lupus_4 Lupus_5 16 14 12 10 8 Lupus_6 Lupus_7 Lu…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Isochronal ages of the Lupus and Upper Sco samples of AGE-PRO. The circles are individual ages and the squares represent the median ages of each group. The ages were derived based on stellar properties listed in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p025_10.png]
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Comparison between the ages derived by the AGE-PRO program (Deng et al. 2025; Agurto-Gangas et al. 2025) and isochronal ages from CMD fitting of astrometric clusters by Ratzenb¨ock et al. (2023a,b). Although the ages of Ratzenb¨ock et al. (2023a,b) are older than our …
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Left: Radial intensity profile of the 12CO molecular emission of Upp Sco 8 when cleaning to 1, 2, 3, and 4σ (see color code). The solid and dashed lines represent cases where the JvM correction is applied and not applied, respectively. Right: Curve of growth of the CO…
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Comparison of disk properties in the Ophiuchus (0.5-1 Myr), Lupus (1-3 Myr), young Upper Sco group (2-3 Myr), and old Upper Sco group (4-6 Myr). This is the same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p027_13.png]

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Pith tools

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