Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? | Paper Citation Record

Observation d50aabc4-800e-4f07-bfee-dea5d82f949c · outbound

This paper cites Polymarket 2024 us election state data.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Polymarket 2024 us election state data

Reference 1

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Observation 21903b30-00f6-4100-af8c-f076a4b8a193 · outbound

This paper cites A new paradigm for polling.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? A new paradigm for polling

Reference 2

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Observation 04b89936-2a92-43a1-868e-7d261f4ec033 · outbound

This paper cites Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research

Reference 3

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:13.165824Z

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Observation a4f8cdf3-836b-4476-95a0-de44e05632a0 · outbound

This paper cites Us traders flock to an election-betting site they're banned from.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Us traders flock to an election-betting site they're banned from

Reference 4

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:22.896923Z

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Observation 7b8b79cc-b30d-4f45-bf2a-ccff1e0d8164 · outbound

This paper cites 2025 cryptocurrency adoption and consumer sentiment report.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? 2025 cryptocurrency adoption and consumer sentiment report

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:22.874167Z

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Observation f2dfde95-8ef9-494a-9b18-0f02947f293c · outbound

This paper cites Brodersen, Florian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, and Steven L.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Brodersen, Florian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, and Steven L

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:01.762233Z

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Observation 079fed99-f542-46c7-a093-f5d8c10ae978 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Unresolved cited work

Reference 7

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:13.057996Z

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Observation 33c9187b-8c35-46a7-a1dd-918f6c59aa6a · outbound

This paper cites Caldeira.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Caldeira

Reference 8

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:12.943892Z

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Observation 7bf63d15-3d9a-4665-aa2d-ae2750e1c52b · outbound

This paper cites Joseph Campbell.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Joseph Campbell

Reference 9

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:12.800062Z

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Observation a204b416-baf2-4e47-9b5b-a63c8d46fbb1 · outbound

This paper cites What Killed Intrade? The New Yorker, March 2013.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? What Killed Intrade? The New Yorker, March 2013

Reference 10

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:22.695725Z

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Observation b69b355d-54ce-4131-9141-965bc67556f3 · outbound

This paper cites Cftc orders event-based binary options markets operator to pay \ 1.4 million penalty.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Cftc orders event-based binary options markets operator to pay \ 1.4 million penalty

Reference 11

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:22.533470Z

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Observation 0318f46e-d65a-4ad5-b15d-ce3e4fbbb20a · outbound

This paper cites Polling Paradox: What Actually Shapes the Numbers? Good Authority, October 2024.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Polling Paradox: What Actually Shapes the Numbers? Good Authority, October 2024

Reference 12

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:22.433183Z

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Observation a78c3ad2-9a22-440d-8d7a-5874d605b9e6 · outbound

This paper cites A lot of state poll results show ties.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? A lot of state poll results show ties

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:22.295244Z

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Observation 0b7ffb91-15fc-49eb-8e32-397ea76812b4 · outbound

This paper cites Aapor task force on 2020 pre-election polls: Performance of the polls in the democratic primaries.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Aapor task force on 2020 pre-election polls: Performance of the polls in the democratic primaries

Reference 14

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:22.092879Z

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Observation 1bd39bb1-ebae-49cc-b7ab-198b94417c1c · outbound

This paper cites Polymarket plans u.s.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Polymarket plans u.s

Reference 15

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:21.920393Z

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Observation b6e1c2b2-49e8-419f-97d5-d5fa50b02970 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Unresolved cited work

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:02.593279Z

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Observation 9c7024d4-e0e0-4765-9089-8f1734e1b820 · outbound

This paper cites The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker

Reference 17

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:21.793624Z

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Observation 0bd556b6-2c03-404f-8e43-6f8a0829996c · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Unresolved cited work

Reference 18

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:12.678392Z

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Observation 6dd6d260-aaff-4bb8-927f-d5e17433971f · outbound

This paper cites Davis-Stober , David V.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Davis-Stober , David V

Reference 19

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:12.537603Z

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Observation 8379198a-88eb-4ded-a084-e8a98fd6c297 · outbound

This paper cites Republicans were into crypto long before trump.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Republicans were into crypto long before trump

Reference 20

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:14.002507Z

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Observation fc860752-cc2e-4ce0-8513-a9cfd3d358ed · outbound

This paper cites First votes in 'digest's' 1936 poll.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? First votes in 'digest's' 1936 poll

Reference 21

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:21.678628Z

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Observation 71e525de-8acd-41ae-899e-5c33c8e669b1 · outbound

This paper cites Political poll news site 538 to close amid larger shuttering across abc and disney.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Political poll news site 538 to close amid larger shuttering across abc and disney

Reference 22

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:21.553035Z

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Observation 2e9bef8f-0cf8-4ba5-88f5-bc5338766b9f · outbound

This paper cites October national poll: Biden with five-point lead one week out.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? October national poll: Biden with five-point lead one week out

Reference 23

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:21.393818Z

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Observation d625ce06-2298-4d24-942b-78766785d536 · outbound

This paper cites Erikson and Christopher Wlezien.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Erikson and Christopher Wlezien

Reference 24

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:12.356033Z

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Observation 7094c5dd-2a7c-4aac-a296-562f2bee4f53 · outbound

This paper cites and Harris.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? and Harris

Reference 25

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:13.777279Z

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Observation 0f7d2fa3-9d63-4f84-a4af-01c1fefaf234 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Unresolved cited work

Reference 26

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:21.279861Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation c437462f-7dd8-48f1-96ae-8ca9c75e5d59 · outbound

This paper cites Public Opinion and Polling around the World: A Historical Encyclopedia, volume 2.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Public Opinion and Polling around the World: A Historical Encyclopedia, volume 2

Reference 27

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:21.086512Z

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Observation 645cfd5c-5c0c-44cc-aeb3-5280e13e81b4 · outbound

This paper cites Getting it right: The art and science of competent polling.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Getting it right: The art and science of competent polling

Reference 28

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:20.950154Z

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Observation a7dba5b7-9934-48a6-8400-af138b45aec3 · outbound

This paper cites How Do People in the U.S.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? How Do People in the U.S

Reference 29

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:20.768410Z

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Observation 4e2faeff-981f-40c4-a65a-8f1c13244af9 · outbound

This paper cites Economic impact of united states presidential election years: A comparative analysis, September 2024.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Economic impact of united states presidential election years: A comparative analysis, September 2024

Reference 30

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:20.623825Z

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Observation f34ebcc4-457b-4a1a-9a2a-d3ca06486277 · outbound

This paper cites Biases of Online Political Polls: Who Participates? Socius, 4: 0 2378023118791080, January 2018.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Biases of Online Political Polls: Who Participates? Socius, 4: 0 2378023118791080, January 2018

Reference 31

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:12.202349Z

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Observation 22d80c72-b5eb-48ba-aa2c-047bcbc8ab89 · outbound

This paper cites Sunshine Hillygus.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Sunshine Hillygus

Reference 32

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:12.039391Z

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Observation 5969a6d1-3f34-4e4c-bbed-2405bf7a2998 · outbound

This paper cites Sunshine Hillygus and Todd G.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Sunshine Hillygus and Todd G

Reference 33

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:13.550641Z

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Observation 8d19e4f0-3ffb-43a2-b992-222fd7aa611c · outbound

This paper cites Elections insights: Why iowa markets are beating polls in 2024 predictions.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Elections insights: Why iowa markets are beating polls in 2024 predictions

Reference 34

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:20.469163Z

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Observation 000afe4a-fe29-4e23-82ea-89fe27dd6948 · outbound

This paper cites Behind biden's 2020 victory.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Behind biden's 2020 victory

Reference 35

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:20.303645Z

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Observation b0b9fe14-f044-483e-b1be-0b39c9946abf · outbound

This paper cites Wash trades as a stock market manipulation tool.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Wash trades as a stock market manipulation tool

Reference 36

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:11.851641Z

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correction dated 2020-12-03. Source: crossref record 10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100439->10.1016/j.jbef.2018.08.004:correction, observed 2026-07-11T03:11:46.707867+00:00. This notice travels one citation hop only.

Observation de5c9783-6784-4600-9224-99d5b06d41f0 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Unresolved cited work

Reference 37

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:20.132510Z

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Observation 265f73db-2f8c-45d0-9401-6af68cd13876 · outbound

This paper cites Jacobs and Robert Y.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Jacobs and Robert Y

Reference 38

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:11.639943Z

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Observation b60dee06-8697-4501-8630-54f6b20c3304 · outbound

This paper cites \ 16 billion will be spent in the 2024 election.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? \ 16 billion will be spent in the 2024 election

Reference 39

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:19.959543Z

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Observation 196fad85-791d-4da7-9e83-4b24cd1b1e3b · outbound

This paper cites Election polling errors across time and space.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Election polling errors across time and space

Reference 40

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:11.463553Z

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correction dated 2020-06-26. Source: crossref record 10.1038/s41562-020-0914-x->10.1038/s41562-018-0315-6:correction, observed 2026-07-11T03:02:46.499832+00:00. This notice travels one citation hop only.

Observation fe5f6c0d-31a6-405e-9b5b-1a6735135b76 · outbound

This paper cites Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline

Reference 41

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:19.767020Z

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Observation a440eb06-97ed-4035-8169-849787687409 · outbound

This paper cites Key things to know about u.s.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Key things to know about u.s

Reference 42

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:19.622386Z

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Observation 04690b26-9750-4a3c-9bf5-02041631f172 · outbound

This paper cites An evaluation of the 2016 election polls in the united states.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? An evaluation of the 2016 election polls in the united states

Reference 43

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:11.281669Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation d489c524-6ee1-4a25-b1bc-40dfc3f4f099 · outbound

This paper cites How public polling has changed in the 21st century.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? How public polling has changed in the 21st century

Reference 44

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:19.472837Z

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Observation 5fedd323-48c6-48b5-8b09-e83f28acb974 · outbound

This paper cites How money affects elections.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? How money affects elections

Reference 45

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:19.323521Z

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Observation d8cc04af-24a7-4413-a617-180b0cbca1f9 · outbound

This paper cites Larrick, Albert E.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Larrick, Albert E

Reference 46

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:11.136195Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 636a9b0d-7d3b-4bb0-a740-c587f3f397e6 · outbound

This paper cites Lauderdale, Delia Bailey, Jack Blumenau, and Douglas Rivers.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Lauderdale, Delia Bailey, Jack Blumenau, and Douglas Rivers

Reference 47

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:10.243261Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

correction dated 2021-05-19. Source: crossref record 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.01.008->10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012:correction, observed 2026-07-11T03:16:39.250683+00:00. This notice travels one citation hop only.

Observation 4892527c-141f-4235-81a2-afaf127f8593 · outbound

This paper cites Money in Politics: How Does It Affect Election Outcomes? SAGE Open, 14 0 (4): 0 21582440241279659, October 2024.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Money in Politics: How Does It Affect Election Outcomes? SAGE Open, 14 0 (4): 0 21582440241279659, October 2024

Reference 48

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:09.821137Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 70ed77de-0466-499d-916b-0fb98cf45c97 · outbound

This paper cites Donald trump and kamala harris spend \ 3.5bn in most expensive presidential election.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Donald trump and kamala harris spend \ 3.5bn in most expensive presidential election

Reference 49

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:19.148827Z

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Observation 323091e5-5f94-4974-bde2-fa46afb4005c · outbound

This paper cites Analyzing the effect of regional modality in polling surveys: A case study of the 2020 u.s.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Analyzing the effect of regional modality in polling surveys: A case study of the 2020 u.s

Reference 50

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:09.475656Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 975101bf-4e18-481a-8f7c-b4aff57a2cf7 · outbound

This paper cites The presidential election, us social policy, and whether canadians should care.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? The presidential election, us social policy, and whether canadians should care

Reference 51

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:18.957018Z

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Observation 8076eb9b-e936-4c4b-b828-462f4330290f · outbound

This paper cites Survey reveals 1 in 5 americans own crypto, with 76\ CryptoSlate, April 2025.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Survey reveals 1 in 5 americans own crypto, with 76\ CryptoSlate, April 2025

Reference 52

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:18.752062Z

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No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation d237bc19-f3fe-43ed-a9e6-6da89e0e185b · outbound

This paper cites Us appeals court clears kalshi to restart elections betting.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Us appeals court clears kalshi to restart elections betting

Reference 53

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:18.528777Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation ad9dab63-4fe0-420a-a477-e6a8e6cfe06e · outbound

This paper cites Calling the 2024 presidential race state by state.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Calling the 2024 presidential race state by state

Reference 54

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:18.349208Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 1450e251-94ce-46dd-9337-f7e4929b6dfe · outbound

This paper cites Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament

Reference 55

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:18.158871Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 4182734b-bb30-480e-bf98-e3a6daa13893 · outbound

This paper cites Comparing two types of online survey samples.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Comparing two types of online survey samples

Reference 56

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:17.986382Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 574bea1d-cca6-436b-a435-ad2dec169ba4 · outbound

This paper cites Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and hispanic adults.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and hispanic adults

Reference 57

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:17.761933Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 6e0bb387-6e08-4c53-9599-041cd3d116e2 · outbound

This paper cites Granger Morgan.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Granger Morgan

Reference 58

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:09.313644Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation f95758a6-98da-48d7-8358-85392bd116b6 · outbound

This paper cites How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't cnn business.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't cnn business

Reference 59

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:17.596917Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation a551a576-e4cf-4071-8648-0d635103abdf · outbound

This paper cites The polls and their context.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? The polls and their context

Reference 60

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:17.462491Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation d1367796-a6c3-4921-8efb-ea628e1b7268 · outbound

This paper cites How the u.s.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? How the u.s

Reference 61

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:17.309674Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 3e30d6e5-5263-477c-a691-17c2fa2a9386 · outbound

This paper cites Porter, and Paul Freedman.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Porter, and Paul Freedman

Reference 62

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:17.134900Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 2bc3c252-31e0-409b-88b2-a2980e53a86f · outbound

This paper cites Jd vance says cryptocurrency can help everyday americans.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Jd vance says cryptocurrency can help everyday americans

Reference 63

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:16.905497Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 52aef1b0-8578-48de-9083-7c79576e6dec · outbound

This paper cites What the 2024 polls got right --- and what they got wrong.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? What the 2024 polls got right --- and what they got wrong

Reference 64

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:16.715620Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 2eaf3944-9954-434a-b52a-1e83729921c5 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Unresolved cited work

Reference 65

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:16.514810Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 9304969d-f91e-4ca7-aabb-04cb3656b066 · outbound

This paper cites A mystery \ 30 million wave of pro-trump bets has moved a popular prediction market, 2024.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? A mystery \ 30 million wave of pro-trump bets has moved a popular prediction market, 2024

Reference 66

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:16.390737Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 83bf04df-3440-4e8a-bcad-0aba7c99afc7 · outbound

This paper cites Three things to look for in any election poll.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Three things to look for in any election poll

Reference 67

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:16.231998Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 13a9a4f1-0026-4f90-a5a7-3584aa5b8add · outbound

This paper cites Ban the polls: Uk election strategists slam `inaccurate' voter surveys.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Ban the polls: Uk election strategists slam `inaccurate' voter surveys

Reference 68

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:16.052426Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation a62b6737-9463-4fab-b9d2-b6c51ed1d69b · outbound

This paper cites Political bias in prediction markets: Evidence from the u.s.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Political bias in prediction markets: Evidence from the u.s

Reference 69

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:15.836882Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation ee99ab48-b24e-4f69-aba2-011673418d74 · outbound

This paper cites Trump's polymarket odds spike as elon musk touts presidential betting predictor.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Trump's polymarket odds spike as elon musk touts presidential betting predictor

Reference 70

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:15.540638Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 20f3d118-e570-4562-90ef-f4c43f76e86a · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Unresolved cited work

Reference 71

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:15.318549Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 031ade35-a8a6-4bb0-a0a9-b22bc36310ee · outbound

This paper cites Exclusive: Election betting site polymarket gives trump a 67\ Fortune Crypto, October 2024.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Exclusive: Election betting site polymarket gives trump a 67\ Fortune Crypto, October 2024

Reference 72

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:15.138215Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 9fe9b9b2-ba5e-49ab-bcc4-a24371f1f466 · outbound

This paper cites Scott and Hal R.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Scott and Hal R

Reference 73

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:14.961887Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation df742fef-39a2-4e42-aa42-40242d095467 · outbound

This paper cites What's behind Trump's Surge in Prediction Markets? Silver Bulletin, October 2024.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? What's behind Trump's Surge in Prediction Markets? Silver Bulletin, October 2024

Reference 74

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:14.756824Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 237b9cb6-14f2-4eb7-b3db-864b48e204d9 · outbound

This paper cites Final silver bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Final silver bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Reference 75

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:14.557914Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 262b75a4-e918-40ca-9309-d7c5b57ce6b5 · outbound

This paper cites Soll and Richard P.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Soll and Richard P

Reference 76

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:09.172439Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation ebca1522-405f-44c9-94e3-f643eb5e3d0f · outbound

This paper cites Polymarket nailed the 2024 election call---then came the fbi.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Polymarket nailed the 2024 election call---then came the fbi

Reference 77

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:13.356485Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 906e0f27-1d40-45ce-9518-38ae9e8976a4 · outbound

This paper cites The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations

Reference 78

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:14.329267Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 200b8952-acee-4844-802b-5eb40a0a16a1 · outbound

This paper cites Public opinion polling by newspapers in the presidential election campaign of 1824.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Public opinion polling by newspapers in the presidential election campaign of 1824

Reference 79

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:08.992544Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation fd2cdcd1-d176-4dbf-92c5-e85b4697a56e · outbound

This paper cites Prediction markets.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? Prediction markets

Reference 80

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:08.667984Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation cce6bcbd-6eee-420a-aec8-b67d123c7c38 · outbound

This paper cites The us presidential election shows the limits of the `science' of polling - impact of social sciences.

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? The us presidential election shows the limits of the `science' of polling - impact of social sciences

Reference 81

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T18:17:14.140979Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Coverage vector

Reference resolution

Outbound references

Pith citing papers