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Absolute Calibration of Cluster Mira Variables to Provide a New Anchor for the Hubble Constant Determination

T0 review · 2 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-06 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read Mira stars in globular clusters put the Hubble constant at 73.06, an independent value that matches Cepheids and widens the gap with Planck.

desk verdict A genuinely new Mira anchor from globular clusters, carefully built and validated, but the H0 rests on a universal slope that the cluster data themselves call into question. read the letter →

arxiv 2507.10658 v2 pith:UZUTFSSE submitted 2025-07-14 astro-ph.GA astro-ph.COastro-ph.SR

Anupam Bhardwaj , Noriyuki Matsunaga , Caroline D. Huang , Adam G. Riess , Marina Rejkuba This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.GAastro-ph.COastro-ph.SR
keywords Miravariablesglobularclustersperiod-luminosityrelationdistancescaleHubbleconstanttensionnear-infraredphotometrytypeIasupernovae
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

Mira variables are pulsing red giant stars whose near-infrared brightness tracks their period tightly enough to serve as standard candles. This paper uses 41 oxygen-rich Miras in 18 Milky Way globular clusters, whose distances are known independently, to calibrate the Mira period-luminosity relation in the JHKs bands and in the HST F160W filter. The calibrated relation reproduces the geometric distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud, and then anchors distances to two type Ia supernova hosts, giving a Hubble constant H0 = 73.06 ± 2.67 km/s/Mpc (3.7% uncertainty). Because this value comes from an independent stellar population and anchor baseline, it strengthens the case that the local expansion rate is genuinely higher than the early-Universe value from Planck.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing object is the period-luminosity relation (PLR) of oxygen-rich Mira variables in the near-infrared, expressed as Mλ = aλ + bλ(log P − 2.3). The paper calibrates this relation from 40 O-rich cluster Miras with periods below 400 d using independent cluster distances, converts H-band photometry to the HST F160W system via F160W = H + 0.39(J − H), and fits a global F160W slope of −3.29 ± 0.07 with zero-point −6.290 ± 0.029 from the three-anchor baseline (globular clusters, LMC, NGC 4258). This global relation is then applied to Miras in NGC 1559 and M101 to calibrate the peak luminosity of their type Ia supernovae, which yields H0 through the standard distance-ladder equation.

What would settle it

Measure F160W PLRs for a larger sample of cluster Miras, especially with periods between 300 and 400 days, using independent cluster distances; if the cluster-only slope stays near −2.76 rather than converging to −3.29, the fixed global slope is wrong and the reported H0 would shift by an amount determined by the period distribution of host-galaxy Miras.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper claims that Mira variables in globular clusters provide an accurate absolute calibration of the Mira period-luminosity relation, independent of the usual LMC and NGC 4258 anchors, and that using all three anchors together yields distances to two type Ia supernova hosts and a Hubble constant H0 = 73.06 ± 2.67 km/s/Mpc. The Mira-based H0 is systematically larger than the Planck prediction and agrees with the Cepheid-based value, so the paper's core discovery is a third, independent stellar-anchor route to the same local H0 that keeps the Hubble tension at high significance.

Load-bearing premise

The distance ladder in this paper assumes that the Mira period-luminosity slope measured from the combined three anchors (−3.29 in F160W) also holds in the supernova host galaxies, even though the cluster-only slope is different (−2.76).

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • Cluster Miras become a viable third anchor for the first rung of the distance ladder, reducing reliance on the LMC and NGC 4258 alone.
  • The Mira-based H0 of 73.06 ± 2.67 km/s/Mpc agrees with Cepheid-based local values to within 0.1σ, so the Hubble tension with Planck is not an artifact of Cepheid calibration.
  • The observed metallicity independence of the Mira PLR over −1.7 < [Fe/H] < −0.1 means Mira distances are not hostage to abundance corrections the way Cepheid distances are.
  • The LMC distance modulus of 18.45 ± 0.04 mag from cluster-calibrated Miras validates the calibrations against a 1.2% geometric distance.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Editorial inference: Because Miras are intermediate-age stars, a Mira-based H0 probes a different stellar population than Cepheids; agreement between the two shifts suspicion from stellar physics to the distance-ladder or cosmological side.
  • Editorial inference: The dominant error is the 2.3% statistical uncertainty from only two SNe Ia hosts, so adding a few more Mira-observed hosts would be the fastest way to push this H0 below 2%.
  • Editorial inference: A testable extension is to observe Miras in additional globular clusters with Gaia DR4 parallaxes; if the cluster-only F160W slope moves from −2.76 toward −3.29, slope universality is confirmed, and if not, the global-slope assumption needs revision.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

2 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper presents homogeneous JHK_s time-series photometry of 55 long-period variables in 18 Galactic globular clusters. After membership and O-rich Mira selection, 41 stars are used to calibrate near-infrared Mira period-luminosity relations with Baumgardt & Vasiliev (2021) cluster distances. The calibration is validated by deriving an LMC distance modulus of 18.45 ± 0.04 mag, in agreement with the geometric value. The H-band photometry is transformed to the HST F160W system, and the authors combine the cluster calibration with the LMC and NGC 4258 anchors, adopting a global F160W slope of -3.29 ± 0.07. Using this three-anchor baseline, they measure distances to NGC 1559 and M101, calibrate the fiducial SN Ia luminosity, and obtain H0 = 73.06 ± 2.67 km/s/Mpc. The central claim is that this independent Mira-based baseline supports the local H0 value and strengthens the Hubble tension.

Significance. If the result holds, the paper provides a genuinely new, independent anchor for the distance ladder: Mira variables in globular clusters with homogeneous time-series photometry and independent cluster distances. The paper's strengths include the LMC validation step, a transparent error budget, explicit treatment of reddening, metallicity, and transformation uncertainties, and the use of three geometric/dynamical anchors rather than the previous two. The claimed 3.7% H0 measurement with a value in agreement with the Cepheid ladder is an important contribution to the Hubble-tension debate. The main caveat is the assumed universality of the Mira PLR slope, which is partially contradicted by the cluster-only slope; a robustness test is needed before the precision claim can be fully credited.

major comments (2)
  1. [4.2, Eq. (4); 4.3, Eq. (5)] The central H0 value rests on the assumption, stated in Section 4.2, that the F160W Mira PLR slope is universal. The cluster-only calibration gives β = -2.76 ± 0.18 (Eq. 3), while the global three-anchor fit gives β = -3.29 ± 0.07 (Eq. 4); the difference is about 2.7-3σ. The paper attributes this to the sparse 300-400 d coverage in clusters, but that explanation is not tested for the SN host samples, which are forced onto β = -3.29 in Eq. (5). The anchor zero-point agreement in Fig. 6 cannot validate the slope because all anchors are simultaneously fit with the same β. If the true host slope differs, the host zero-point shifts by (β_true - β_assumed)(<log P>_host - 2.3); with a plausible host mean log P near 2.3-2.4 and Δβ ≈ 0.5, this is up to ~0.05 mag, comparable to the full 0.081 mag error budget in Table 6. I request a robustness test in which the host distances and H0 are re-derived with the cluster-only slope, and ideally with the slope fitted to a matched period range in all anchors or left free for the hosts. If the shift is non-negligible, it should be added as a systematic.
  2. [3.3, Table 4] The astrometry-based luminosity fits yield zero-points that differ systematically from the distance-based fits by 0.04-0.06 mag in J/H/Ks. The text notes this 'hinting at an overcorrection in cluster parallaxes' and proceeds with the distance-based calibration. Since a 0.05 mag zero-point offset translates to ~2.3% in H0, and the total quoted H0 uncertainty is 3.7%, this potential systematic should be either propagated into the anchor distance error budget or explicitly argued to be absorbed by the quoted anchor distance systematics. The LMC distance agreement in Section 3.4 is supportive but does not directly exclude this offset, because a small compensating change in the LMC reddening or in the LMC zero-point would bring the derived LMC distance back into agreement.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Abstract and Section 3.2] The abstract states that cluster Mira PLRs 'do not show any dependence on iron abundance', but Section 5 later acknowledges that the clusters with Miras span a narrow -0.3 to -0.7 dex range and that an accurate quantification is not possible. Please soften the abstract or qualify the claim consistently with the later caveat.
  2. [4.3, Table 6] Please report the period range and mean log P of the 110 Miras in NGC 1559 and the 211 Miras in M101; these values are needed to assess whether the cluster-vs-global slope difference can bias the host zero-points.
  3. [3.4, Table 5] The LMC distance determination fixes the LMC slopes from Yuan et al. (2017). A brief test using the cluster-derived slopes instead would show how much of the slope difference is absorbed by the zero-point comparison and would strengthen the validation.
  4. [4.2] Equation (4) is called a 'global solution' but it is a fit to three anchor zero-points, not to the individual Mira measurements shown in Fig. 5. Please clarify the fitting procedure and the number of degrees of freedom, especially since the metallicity coefficient 0.09 ± 0.04 is derived from only three anchor points.
  5. [2.2] Table 2 reports NGC 5139 with [Fe/H] = -1.70 ± 0.26; the single Mira used from this cluster carries a large metallicity uncertainty. Please state explicitly how this affects the claimed metallicity-insensitivity in Section 3.2.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No circularity: the cluster-anchor calibration is external, and H0 is obtained from independent host-galaxy and SN data without reusing the target value as an input.

full rationale

The derivation chain is self-contained. Cluster Mira absolute magnitudes are built from independent cluster distances (Baumgardt & Vasiliev 2021; Vasiliev & Baumgardt 2021), and the LMC distance of 18.45 ± 0.04 mag is a cross-check, not an input, since the later anchor uses the geometric LMC modulus (Pietrzyński et al. 2019). The F160W PLR (Eq. 3) is obtained from ground-based H with a published transformation; the three-anchor fit in Eq. (4) treats the slope and zero-point as fitted nuisance parameters, and the concern that the global slope -3.29 differs from the cluster-only slope -2.76 (Eq. 3 vs Eq. 4) is an explicit assumption and robustness limitation (Section 4.2), not a circular reduction: the hosts are then fit with the same slope but their zero-points come from new HST data, and Eq. (8) combines those with external SN Ia apparent magnitudes (Scolnic et al. 2022, 2023) and the Hubble-flow intercept (Riess et al. 2022a). No equation reduces H0 to an input that already contains it; no fitted parameter is renamed as a prediction. Self-citations (Huang et al. 2018, 2020, 2024; Riess et al. 2022a) supply data or established calibrations that are external to the target H0 value and therefore do not constitute circular support.

Assumptions & free parameters 3 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central H0 determination rests on the universality of the Mira PLR slope, on the accuracy of external cluster distances, and on adopted extinction, transformation and metallicity assumptions. None of these are introduced ad hoc; they come from prior literature, but each carries uncertainty that propagates into the final error budget.

free parameters (3)
  • Global F160W PLR slope = -3.29 ± 0.07 mag/dex
    Fitted to the combined cluster, LMC and NGC 4258 anchors; applied to all SNe host galaxies. If the true slope is environment-dependent, the distance ladder is biased.
  • Anchor zero-point a0 = -6.290 ± 0.029 mag
    Inverse-variance weighted zero-point of the three anchor PLRs; the primary quantity setting the Mira luminosity scale.
  • Metallicity coefficient = 0.09 ± 0.04 mag/dex
    Fitted to the three anchor zero-points as a function of [Fe/H]; not applied in the final ladder but used to assign a systematic uncertainty.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption The Mira PLR slope is universal across environments for P < 400 d
    Section 4.2 states this is the basic assumption for the distance scale application; the cluster-only slope is shallower, and the difference is attributed to period distribution rather than environment.
  • domain assumption Globular cluster distances from Baumgardt & Vasiliev (2021) are accurate and independent
    Used to calibrate the cluster Mira luminosities in Section 3; if these distances share systematics with the distance ladder, the zero-point is biased.
  • standard math Fitzpatrick (1999) extinction law with R_V = 3.1 is applicable
    Used for reddening corrections in Section 2.2; variations were tested, and coefficients changed by less than 1-2 sigma.
  • domain assumption The H to F160W transformation of Huang et al. (2018) is valid for Miras
    Used in Section 4.1 to convert ground-based H-band magnitudes to HST F160W; the transformation was derived for Cepheids and may not perfectly match Miras.
  • domain assumption SNe Ia host galaxies have metallicities similar to NGC 4258 within ±0.2 dex
    Assumed in Section 4.3 for the metallicity systematic; based on H II region abundances and not on intermediate-age stellar populations.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Absolute Calibration of Cluster Mira Variables to Provide a New Anchor for the Hubble Constant Determination." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/UZUTFSSE

@misc{pith2026250710658,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Absolute Calibration of Cluster Mira Variables to Provide a New Anchor for the Hubble Constant Determination},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/UZUTFSSE}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2507.10658}
}
abstract

Mira variables in globular clusters can provide an accurate and precise absolute calibration of their period-luminosity relations (PLRs) to independently anchor the cosmic distance scale and determine the Hubble constant. We present homogeneous near-infrared ($JHK_s$) time-series photometric observations of a sample of 55 candidate long-period variables in 18 globular clusters covering a wide metallicity range ($-1.7 < \textrm{[Fe/H]} < -0.1$ dex). The Gaia proper motions, long-period variability information, and optical-infrared colors are used to identify 41 oxygen-rich Miras as members of the globular clusters. Mean luminosities of Miras in the $JHK_s$ bands are independently calibrated using the recommended distances and mean parallaxes to their host clusters. Cluster Mira PLRs exhibit scatter comparable to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) variables and do not show any dependence on iron abundance for a wide range of metallicities. We establish the accuracy of cluster Miras as independent anchors by determining a distance modulus to the LMC, $18.45 \pm 0.04$ mag, in agreement with the 1.2\% precise geometric distance. Our $H$-band photometry is transformed to derive Hubble Space Telescope F160W PLR for cluster Miras providing a three-anchor baseline with the LMC and NGC 4258. We employ three-anchor solution to determine distances to two type Ia supernovae host galaxies, NGC 1559 ($31.39\pm0.05$ mag) and M101 ($29.07\pm0.04$ mag), and provide a $3.7\%$ measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0 = 73.06\pm 2.67$ km~s$^{-1}$~Mpc$^{-1}$. Similar to Cepheids, our independent baseline solution results in a local $H_0$ determination that is systematically larger than its inference from the early universe probes, further supporting the ongoing Hubble tension.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2507.10658 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. The spatial distribution, proper motions, and optical-NIR color-magnitude diagrams of LPVs in N6441 (top) and N104 (bottom). The small/big circles in the coordinates represent 1/5 half light radius (rh(N6441) = 0.57′ and rh(N104) = 3.17′ , W. E. Harris 2010). The circles in the proper motion planes represent average scatter around the mean values along both axes. Representative ±5σ errors in the proper motions are a… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Top left: the differences in the proper motions between LPVs and their host globular clusters along right ascension and declination axes. LPVs with good astrometric solution (ruwe < 1.4) that are likely field stars are marked in blue asterisks. Top right: Half of the G-band variability amplitude for cluster and field LPVs taken from T. Lebzelter et al. (2023). LPVs with SR classification or low optical-NIR amplitude… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. JHKs period-luminosity relations for 47 LPVs in glob￾ular clusters after excluding significant outliers in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_3.png] view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (6 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Top: absolute calibration of PLR in HST F160W filter for 41 O-rich cluster Miras. The dashed line represents the best fitting linear regression for 40 Miras with periods smaller than 400 d. The small circle shows a Mira with residuals larger than ±2σ dotted lines. Bott…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Mira PLRs in F160W filter in three anchors – Globular clusters, LMC, and NGC 4258. The Milky Way field Miras are also shown in the bottom-right panel, but were not included in the global analysis. The global PLR shown in the top-left panel represents the best fitting l…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The zero-point variation among anchor PLRs for the fixed global slope as a function of metallicity. The dotted line shows a weighted variance mean of the Cluster, LMC, and NGC 4258 ze￾ro-points. The dashed line represents the two-parameter linear-fit to these three anc…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Template-fitted light curves of 55 long-period variables analyzed in this work in J (violet), H (blue), and Ks (red). The light curves in H/Ks bands in blue/red are offset by −0.1/ − 0.5 mag for visualization purposes. The grey data points represent literature photomet…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_8.png]
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_9.png]

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Forward citations

Cited by 2 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Hubble tension: a short review of theoretical explanations

    astro-ph.CO 2026-07 accept novelty 4.0 of 10

    A comprehensive review finds no theoretical Hubble-tension solution yet passes all consistency tests; new early-dark-energy chains reach high H0 only when the SH0ES calibration is added.

  2. The Hubble tension: A decade review

    astro-ph.CO 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 3.0 of 10

    Pure early or late fixes to the Hubble tension are tightly constrained; remaining options are combined early-late interacting dark energy or new physics at the local-to-homogeneous transition.

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