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arxiv: 2605.16499 · v1 · pith:ODLDJBNJnew · submitted 2026-05-15 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

A Revised Mass and Period for the Habitable Zone super-Earth GJ 3378b: A Planet Straddling the Cosmic Shoreline

Paul Robertson , Michael Endl , William D. Cochran , Gudmundur Stef\'ansson , Suvrath Mahadevan , Caleb I. Ca\~nas , Gogod James , Roan Arendtsz
show 13 more authors
Ryan C. Terrien Chad F. Bender Scott A. Diddams Mark R. Giovinazzi Arvind F. Gupta Samuel Halverson Shubham Kanodia Daniel M. Krolikowski Sarah E. Logsdon Joe P. Ninan Claire J. Rogers Arpita Roy Christian Schwab
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classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetsradial velocityhabitable zoneM dwarfssuper-Earthcosmic shorelineGJ 3378atmospheric escape
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The pith

Joint radial velocity analysis revises the super-Earth GJ 3378b to an orbital period of 21.45 days and a minimum mass of 2.3 Earth masses while keeping it inside the habitable zone.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper combines new radial velocity measurements from the HPF and NEID spectrometers with previously published data from CARMENES and SPIRou to re-fit the orbit of the planet around the nearby M4V star GJ 3378. The resulting solution shortens the period from 24.73 days to 21.45 days and lowers the minimum mass from 5.26 Earth masses to 2.3 Earth masses. These changes leave the planet still within the conservative liquid-water habitable zone but increase the chance that it is a rocky world rather than a mini-Neptune. The revised location places the planet close to the cosmic shoreline, the boundary at which M-dwarf planets are expected to lose their atmospheres through stellar radiation and wind. A reader cares because precise masses and orbits determine whether such planets can retain atmospheres long enough for life to develop.

Core claim

The joint RV model reduces the orbital period to P = 21.45 ± 0.01 d and the minimum mass to m sin i = 2.3 ± 0.4 M⊕. The shortened orbital distance remains within the conservative circumstellar liquid-water habitable zone, while the reduced mass increases the likelihood that the planet has a terrestrial composition. The revised planet properties place it near the cosmic shoreline, where planets in the HZs of M dwarfs may lose their atmospheres due to radiative stripping.

What carries the argument

The joint orbital fit applied to the combined radial-velocity time series from the HPF, NEID, CARMENES, and SPIRou instruments.

If this is right

  • The lower mass makes a rocky, terrestrial composition more probable than a gaseous envelope.
  • The planet remains inside the conservative habitable zone for liquid water.
  • Its position near the cosmic shoreline implies that atmospheric loss through stellar radiation may have occurred or may still be occurring.
  • Similar joint analyses of multi-instrument radial velocity data could revise other M-dwarf planet candidates announced from single telescopes.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Atmospheric escape models for M-dwarf planets could be tested by searching for remaining hydrogen or helium envelopes around this world.
  • Future transit observations might reveal whether the planet has retained any atmosphere despite its proximity to the shoreline.
  • Reanalysis of other single-instrument detections around fully convective M dwarfs may shift additional planets relative to the cosmic shoreline.

Load-bearing premise

The combined radial velocity measurements contain no significant stellar activity signals or instrumental systematics that could mimic or shift the 21.45-day Keplerian signature.

What would settle it

An independent radial velocity data set that recovers a strong periodic signal at the original 24.73-day period, or that shows stellar activity indicators correlating with that period instead of 21.45 days, would falsify the revised solution.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.16499 by Arpita Roy, Arvind F. Gupta, Caleb I. Ca\~nas, Chad F. Bender, Christian Schwab, Claire J. Rogers, Daniel M. Krolikowski, Gogod James, Gudmundur Stef\'ansson, Joe P. Ninan, Mark R. Giovinazzi, Michael Endl, Paul Robertson, Roan Arendtsz, Ryan C. Terrien, Samuel Halverson, Sarah E. Logsdon, Scott A. Diddams, Shubham Kanodia, Suvrath Mahadevan, William D. Cochran.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Radial velocity data for GJ 3378. Top: the combined RV time series. The orbit model is shown as a dashed line. Middle: RV residuals to a 1-planet model. Bottom: RVs phase-folded to the period of the exoplanet. Phase-binned RVs are shown as squares. These new observations confirm the previously-identified planet candidate, but we find a significantly different orbital solution. Specifically, our model indic… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: RV periodograms for GJ 3378. Top: rvsearch peri￾odogram of all RVs. Middle: rvsearch periodgram of the RVs after removing the 21.5-day planet candidate. The dashed hori￾zontal lines in both RV periodograms indicate the FAP = 0.1% threshold as determined by rvsearch. Bottom: window function of the RV sampling, as determined by the GLS algorithm. GJ 3378 is a bright, nearby star, which allows for highly prec… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: GLS periodograms of spectral activity indica￾tors from the spectrometers used in this study. From top to bottom, we show periodograms of the KI EW from HPF, the CARMENES dLW line shape parameter, and the SPIRou dET metric. Vertical lines indicate the period of the planet can￾didate, as well as stellar rotation periods as determined by J. F. Donati et al. (2023) and J. Kemmer et al. (2025). All instru￾ments… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: rvsearch periodogram power of GJ 3378 RVs, showing the evolu￾tion of power as data are added. The top panel shows power at the 21.5-day period. The solid curve shows power for the data, and the dashed curve shows the average results for 100 injections of a synthetic planet with orbital parameters from [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: TESS photometry of GJ 3378, detailing our search for a transit of planet b. The top four panels show individual TESS sectors of GJ 3378, while the lower-left panel shows all TESS photometry binned and phase-folded to the period of planet b. Overplotted on the phase-folded data are transit models of the planet for a range of impact parameters, conservatively assuming a planetary radius R = 1R⊕. In the lower… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Angular extents of the optimistic HZ (R. K. Kopparapu et al. 2013) for nearby stars hosting exoplanets. The inner and outer HZ limits are marked with circles colored by stellar effective temperature (in K), and known exoplanets are indicated as diamonds at their projected angular separations. The green shaded region indicates where planets might be accessible to imaging facilities on 30 m-class telescopes,… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: rvsearch periodograms of GJ 3378, using all combinations of spectrometers. Dashed horizontal lines indicate the FAP = 0.1% threshold as determined by rvsearch. Vertical lines show the 24.7-day period for planet c proposed by C. Moutou et al. (2024), and the 21.5-day period found by our analysis. The shorter period is preferred by all sets of at least 3 instruments, and by combinations of 2 instruments that… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Stacked rvsearch periodogram power of GJ 3378 RVs at the period of the 21.5d signal, showing the evolution of power as data are added. Here, the data are added in order of largest to smallest errorbar size, rather than in time order. As in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Stacked rvsearch periodogram of all GJ 3378 RVs, showing the evolution of the power spectrum as data are added. We show here the period space containing the exoplanet signal. The 21.5-day period remains consistent over the baseline of the data and increases in signal-to-noise. The 24.7-day signal does not appear distinct in the stacked periodogram of all RVs [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_9.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

The nearby ($d = 7.7$ pc) M4V star GJ~3378 is a target of our radial velocity (RV) exoplanet survey of fully convective stars in the Solar neighborhood with the near-infrared spectrograph HPF on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET) at McDonald Observatory. Recently, Moutou et al.~(2024) announced the discovery of an $m\sin i = 5.26^{+0.94}_{-0.97} M_\oplus$ planet, GJ 3378b, with an orbital period of $24.73 \pm 0.06$ days, based on SPIRou RV data. Here, we present our HPF RVs for GJ 3378, as well as additional Doppler spectroscopy from the extreme precision NEID Spectrometer on the WIYN telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory. We have analyzed the HPF+NEID RVs jointly with the published RVs from the CARMENES and SPIRou spectrometers. We present an orbital model for GJ 3378b that differs significantly from the Moutou et al.~solution. The joint RV model reduces the orbital period to $P = 21.45 \pm 0.01$d and the minimum mass to $m \sin i = 2.3 \pm 0.4 M_\oplus$. The shortened orbital distance remains within the conservative circumstellar liquid-water habitable zone (HZ), while the reduced mass increases the likelihood that the planet has a terrestrial composition. The revised planet properties place it near the ``cosmic shoreline," where planets in the HZs of M dwarfs may lose their atmospheres due to radiative stripping.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports new HPF and NEID radial-velocity observations of the M4V star GJ 3378, combines them with published CARMENES and SPIRou data, and performs a joint Keplerian fit that revises the orbital period of GJ 3378b from 24.73 d to 21.45 ± 0.01 d and the minimum mass from ~5.3 M⊕ to 2.3 ± 0.4 M⊕. The authors conclude that the planet remains inside the conservative habitable zone but now has a lower mass favoring a terrestrial composition and lies near the cosmic shoreline for atmospheric loss.

Significance. If the revised parameters hold, the result updates the properties of a nearby HZ planet and strengthens the case for terrestrial composition, with direct relevance to atmospheric-retention models around M dwarfs. The multi-instrument dataset is a methodological strength that allows cross-validation, but the scientific impact depends on demonstrating that the 21.45 d signal is not an artifact of unmodeled stellar activity or instrument systematics.

major comments (1)
  1. [§3 (RV analysis and orbital modeling)] §3 (RV analysis and orbital modeling): The joint least-squares Keplerian fit to the combined HPF+NEID+CARMENES+SPIRou time series yields the revised P = 21.45 ± 0.01 d and m sin i = 2.3 ± 0.4 M⊕ without an explicit description of activity mitigation (e.g., inclusion of activity indicators, Gaussian-process kernels, or covariance tests between the 21–25 d window and stellar rotation). For an M4V star this period range overlaps possible spot-induced or rotation-harmonic signals, so the assumption that all power at 21.45 d is planetary is load-bearing for the central claim of revised parameters.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: A one-sentence summary of activity or covariance checks performed would help readers immediately assess the robustness of the revised solution.
  2. [Figure 2] Figure 2 or equivalent periodogram panel: Clarify whether the displayed power spectrum includes or excludes activity-indicator correlations.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful reading and constructive feedback on our manuscript. The major comment identifies a legitimate need for greater transparency in our treatment of stellar activity, which we address below through targeted revisions.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [§3 (RV analysis and orbital modeling)] §3 (RV analysis and orbital modeling): The joint least-squares Keplerian fit to the combined HPF+NEID+CARMENES+SPIRou time series yields the revised P = 21.45 ± 0.01 d and m sin i = 2.3 ± 0.4 M⊕ without an explicit description of activity mitigation (e.g., inclusion of activity indicators, Gaussian-process kernels, or covariance tests between the 21–25 d window and stellar rotation). For an M4V star this period range overlaps possible spot-induced or rotation-harmonic signals, so the assumption that all power at 21.45 d is planetary is load-bearing for the central claim of revised parameters.

    Authors: We agree that the original manuscript would benefit from an explicit description of activity checks, particularly for an M4V star where the revised period lies near plausible rotation harmonics. In the revised manuscript we have expanded §3 with a new subsection on activity mitigation. We report periodogram analyses of activity indicators (Hα, Na I D, Ca II IRT) extracted from all four instruments, none of which show significant power between 21–25 d. We also present covariance tests between the RV time series and the activity indicators, as well as an alternative model that includes a quasi-periodic Gaussian-process kernel; the planetary parameters remain consistent within 1σ. These additions directly address the referee’s concern and strengthen the case that the 21.45 d signal is not activity-induced. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity: revised parameters from direct multi-instrument RV Keplerian fit

full rationale

The paper's central result (P = 21.45 ± 0.01 d, m sin i = 2.3 ± 0.4 M⊕) is obtained by joint least-squares fitting of observed HPF+NEID+CARMENES+SPIRou radial velocities to a standard Keplerian orbital model. This is a conventional data-driven estimation step with no reduction to any quantity defined by the authors' own prior equations, no fitted input relabeled as prediction, and no load-bearing self-citation chain. The derivation remains self-contained against external RV datasets and does not invoke uniqueness theorems or ansatzes from the same author group to force the outcome.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the assumption that the observed radial-velocity variations are produced by a single Keplerian orbit plus uncorrelated noise, with no additional free parameters introduced for stellar activity or instrument offsets beyond those implicit in the joint fit.

free parameters (2)
  • orbital period = 21.45 d
    Fitted directly to the combined radial-velocity time series.
  • minimum mass = 2.3 M⊕
    Derived from the fitted RV semi-amplitude and stellar mass.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Radial-velocity variations are dominated by a single planetary Keplerian signal
    Standard modeling choice invoked when combining multi-instrument RV datasets without explicit activity indicators in the abstract.

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