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arxiv: 2605.18953 · v1 · pith:2E3QO3HJnew · submitted 2026-05-18 · 🌌 astro-ph.SR · astro-ph.EP· astro-ph.IM

Astrometric exoplanet detection survives solar-like stellar contamination

Conaire Deagan , Benjamin T. Montet , P. Tuthill , M. Ferraro , R. Lyu , E. Sheehan This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-20 08:07 UTC · model grok-4.3

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keywords astrometryexoplanetsstellar activitysolar jitterphotometric centroidEarth-like planetsnoise floor
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The pith

Measurements of the Sun show stellar activity produces less astrometric jitter than an Earth-mass planet at 1 parsec

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper measures photometric centroid shifts in high-resolution images of the Sun across nearly a decade and three wavelengths to quantify the astrometric noise caused by starspots and faculae. It scales those shifts to the apparent size a solar twin would have at different distances and compares the resulting jitter values to the known astrometric wobble an Earth-like planet would induce. The measured jitter is lower than the planetary signal at 1 parsec, which implies that instrument precision rather than intrinsic stellar variability sets the practical limit for detecting Earth-mass planets around nearby Sun-like stars. The work also introduces spot simulations to test activity extremes and shows the jitter varies with the solar cycle but stays below the Earth threshold even at peak activity.

Core claim

High-resolution solar images yield a typical astrometric jitter of 0.342 μas pc at 607 nm, ranging from 0.058 μas pc in quiet periods to 1.294 μas pc at activity maximum; this floor lies below the approximately 3 μas signal expected from an Earth-mass planet at 1 pc around a Sun-like star, so stellar contamination does not prevent Earth-like detections once instrumental precision is reached.

What carries the argument

Photometric centroid jitter extracted from solar disk images and scaled to angular units per parsec to represent astrometric noise

If this is right

  • Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars at 1 pc produce a larger astrometric signal than the stellar noise floor in the studied wavelength.
  • Mars-mass planets sit closer to or below the noise level during high-activity epochs, complicating their detection.
  • Future astrometric missions can treat stellar activity as a secondary rather than primary error source for Earth analogs once they reach micro-arcsecond precision.
  • The noise floor rises and falls with the stellar cycle, so scheduling observations during quieter phases improves sensitivity.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same scaling approach could be applied to other stars with measured rotation periods to predict their individual jitter floors without new imaging.
  • If the wavelength dependence observed here holds for other spectral types, near-infrared astrometry would see even lower relative jitter for cooler stars.
  • Combining these solar-derived limits with existing radial-velocity surveys would tighten occurrence-rate estimates for low-mass planets.

Load-bearing premise

The centroid shifts seen in the Sun's visible light images scale directly to the astrometric jitter that other solar-like stars would show when viewed from Earth.

What would settle it

Repeated high-precision astrometric observations of a confirmed solar twin at known distance that measure jitter significantly higher than 0.342 μas pc across multiple activity cycles.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.18953 by Benjamin T. Montet, Conaire Deagan, E. Sheehan, M. Ferraro, P. Tuthill, R. Lyu.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: A comparison between exoplanet detection using RV and astrometry for a planet on a circular, edge-on orbit around a 1 𝑀⊙ star. The position of the Solar System planets have also been marked. This work calculates the astrometric signal at a distance chosen to align with Alpha Centauri The grey dots indicate confirmed exoplanet parameters only; their positions do not reflect detection signal strength. Both R… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: A demonstration of the limitations of the PSPT data processing pipeline, which did not process the limb uniformly with the rest of the Solar disc. The solid blue line is the stated extent of the solar disk in the original dataset, and the dashed red line is the extent to which the data has been cleaned. Note between the red and blue lines there exists a slight intensity increase — an example of the differe… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The impact that a cropped measurement has on the photometric centre of the solar disk. Here, the inner disk boundary is at 98.3% of the full radius - the median value of the cleaned/full radii ratio in the PSPT dataset. The image shows two simulated Sunspots, one in the lower left quadrant, and one in the upper right quadrant on the limb of the disk. This spot is heavily foreshortened. A typical Solar quad… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: The photocentroid deflection induced by reflected starlight from planets. The effect induced by Earth - assuming a maximal albedo and phase - has been marked. Bond albedo of 0.34 (Hanel et al. 1981) reduces the deflection by a factor of ∼ 3 smaller. The signal is further diminished away from full phase and varies coherently with the orbital period, making it potentially distinguishable. Further work is nee… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: The photocentroid deflection induced by reflected starlight from comets. The contours show the logarithm of the photocentroid deflection in 𝜇as pc. Data for comet brightnesses and perihelion distances are from Knight et al. (2010), who analysed photometry of over 900 Kreutz sungrazers observed by SOHO from 1996–2005. The Great Comet of 1882 has been marked as an extreme historical example. of 1882 reported… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The two toy models of trojan dust cloud over-densities. The upper panel is model 1, with a 10x overdensity compared to the same radius back￾ground zodiacal dust. The lower panel is model 2, where 90% of the dust is contained within the trojan dust cloud. (∼ 1.3 − 2.0 𝜇as pc) than the ∼ 1.1 − 1.3𝜇as pc found in earlier work, depending on waveband and study (see [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Calendar-year correlations between solar irradiance variability and photocentre jitter, by component and waveband. Solid lines represent the per-year point measurements, with the shaded regions showing the 95% confidence intervals, estimated via bootstrapping. Coloured horizontal dotted lines show the corresponding pooled correlation over the full data range. The grey dashed line marks zero correlation. Th… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Kernel Density Estimates (KDEs) of the astrometric jitter of the Sun aligned in the equatorial frame. The entirety of the PSPT dataset is plotted, demonstrating how the astrometric jitter varies over several orders of magnitude, and is heavily wavelength-dependent. This demonstrates the need for careful waveband selection when designing astrometric telescopes, as including lines associated with stellar act… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: The 90-day rolling average of the standard deviation of the absolute photometric deflection (i.e. astrometric signal) of the Sun in three wavelengths, spanning from 2005-2015. The rapid changes in variation indicates that short term jitter trends are heavily impacted by quasi-random spot clusters appearing. The presence of the Solar cycle is evident in this data. Notably, the active wavelength of Calcium-i… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Monthly mean International Sunspot Number from the World Data Center SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium (Clette & Lefèvre 2015b). Error bars represent the standard deviation among contributing observatories. Horizontal bars indicate the temporal coverage of solar astrometric studies: this work (PSPT data), Makarov et al. (2010), Lagrange et al. (2011), and Shapiro et al. (2021). Despite the cycle that th… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Pearson correlations between the rolling standard deviations of TSI and astrometric jitter as a function of window size. Panels show the X – equatorial – component (top), Y – polar – component (middle), and radial magnitude R (bottom). Curves are for the blue and red wavebands, with shaded regions being 95% confidence levels, estimated via bootstrapping. Most display similar shapes: An initial rapid incre… view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: The relationship between number of spots and astrometric jitter (upper) and the spot filling factor and astrometric jitter (lower) for three dif￾ferent spot distribution schema. The blue circles represent the evenly spaced schema, where spots of uniform size are spaced according to a fibonacci spi￾ral, for maximum astrometric deflection cancellation. The orange diamonds represent the randomly spaced schem… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: A diagram of the shape of the photometric deflection caused by a single starspot rotating at a constant rate across a stellar disk, from −𝜋/2 (left limb / bluer) to +𝜋/2 (right limb / redder). The signal includes foreshortening and limb-darkening. The size of both the signal and starspot are not to scale. Meunier & Lagrange (2022) depend on the full frequency structure of the stellar signal, so the actual… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: The auto-correlation of the equatorial and axial (polar) astrometric signals, for the three PSPT wavelengths. The rotation period of the Sun is indicated by the grey shaded region. Given that the data was not uniformly sampled, we linearly interpolate the data in order for the autocorrelation to be performed. To ensure that this interpolation did not induce spurious structure in the above figure, we also … view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Astrometric monitoring of stars provides a promising method for discovery of low-mass planets around nearby Sun-like stars. The astronomical community has proposed several telescopes designed to perform high-precision astrometric observations. One limiting factor intrinsic to stars is the astrometric noise - or "jitter" - induced by surface stellar activity such as starspots and faculae. Despite previous estimates, the relative size of this signal has not been empirically measured from direct photometric observations. We analyse high-resolution images of the Sun to quantify the photometric centroid jitter across three narrow wavelength regions over nearly a decade, spanning high and low activity periods of the Solar cycle. We compare our findings to previous theoretical estimates. We scale this jitter to simulate how a Solar-twin would appear at various distances, establishing an astrometric noise floor below which detection is significantly complicated by stellar activity. We also introduce starspot simulations that augment our data. We find the typical astrometric jitter of the Sun at \(\lambda = 607.2 \pm 0.25\text{nm}\) to be \(0.342\mu \text{as pc}\), ranging between \(0.058\mu \text{as pc}\) and \(1.294\mu \text{as pc}\) for low and high activity periods, respectively. This is lower than the expected \(\approx 3\mu \text{as}\) astrometric signal that an Earth-like planet would produce around a Sun-like star, at 1 pc. Therefore, the astrometric noise floor imposed by intrinsic stellar activity sets a detection limit below one Earth but greater than Mars around Solar-analog stars, making instrument precision the limiting factor for Earth-like exoplanet searches.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper analyzes high-resolution solar images across three narrow wavelength bands over nearly a solar cycle to empirically measure photometric centroid jitter. It scales these measurements geometrically to astrometric jitter for solar-twin stars at various distances, augments the data with starspot simulations, and compares results to prior theoretical estimates. The central result is a typical jitter of 0.342 μas pc (range 0.058–1.294 μas pc) at 607.2 nm, which lies below the ~3 μas signal expected from an Earth-mass planet at 1 pc. The authors conclude that stellar activity imposes a noise floor permitting detection limits below one Earth but above Mars around solar analogs, leaving instrument precision as the dominant limitation.

Significance. If the scaling and representativeness hold, the work supplies a rare empirical benchmark for astrometric stellar noise rather than purely model-based estimates. The long-baseline solar observations and simulation augmentation constitute a concrete, falsifiable reference point that can inform design requirements for proposed astrometric missions targeting nearby solar-like stars.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim that instrument precision rather than activity sets the limit for Earth-like detections rests on the measured solar jitter (0.342 μas pc typical; 0.058–1.294 μas pc range) being representative of solar-analog stars at arbitrary distances. The manuscript provides no quantitative discussion of how differences in spot-size distribution, latitude preference, filling factor, or contrast among other solar-like stars could push typical jitter above the reported range, which would reverse the conclusion that activity is sub-dominant.
minor comments (2)
  1. The abstract states that results are compared to previous theoretical estimates but does not name the specific works or quantify the level of agreement; adding these references and a brief comparison table would improve clarity.
  2. The wavelength band 607.2 ± 0.25 nm is given as an example; the other two narrow bands should be specified explicitly, together with the rationale for their selection.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive and detailed review of our manuscript. The major comment raises an important point about the representativeness of solar measurements for the broader population of solar-analog stars. We address this directly below and have incorporated revisions to strengthen the discussion of this limitation while preserving the empirical focus of the work.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim that instrument precision rather than activity sets the limit for Earth-like detections rests on the measured solar jitter (0.342 μas pc typical; 0.058–1.294 μas pc range) being representative of solar-analog stars at arbitrary distances. The manuscript provides no quantitative discussion of how differences in spot-size distribution, latitude preference, filling factor, or contrast among other solar-like stars could push typical jitter above the reported range, which would reverse the conclusion that activity is sub-dominant.

    Authors: We agree that the central conclusion depends on the Sun serving as a reasonable proxy for solar analogs. Our approach uses direct, high-resolution observations of the Sun across a full activity cycle in three narrow bands, which provides an empirical anchor that is independent of many modeling assumptions used in prior theoretical work. The reported range already reflects substantial variation tied to activity level. We augmented the observations with starspot simulations to test sensitivity to spot parameters. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that other solar-like stars could exhibit different spot-size distributions, preferred latitudes, filling factors, or contrasts, potentially increasing jitter beyond the observed solar range. In the revised manuscript we have added a dedicated paragraph in the discussion section that explicitly addresses these factors, notes the absence of a full population-level quantitative model, and qualifies the detection-limit statements to reflect that the solar benchmark may represent a lower envelope rather than a universal value. This addition makes the limitations transparent without altering the core empirical result. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

Empirical solar image analysis yields astrometric jitter floor with no circular reduction

full rationale

The paper measures photometric centroid jitter directly from high-resolution solar images across wavelengths and activity levels, then applies a geometric distance scaling to obtain astrometric units. This is an observational result grounded in external data (solar images) rather than any derivation that reduces to fitted parameters, self-definitions, or self-citation chains. The central claim—that activity noise lies below the Earth signal at 1 pc—follows from the measured values without circularity. No load-bearing self-citations or ansatzes are required for the reported numbers.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The claim rests on the assumption that solar data generalize to other stars and that linear scaling with distance applies without additional wavelength-dependent effects.

free parameters (1)
  • activity-period scaling
    Jitter values are reported separately for low and high activity periods without explicit fitting procedure shown.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption The Sun is a representative solar-analog star for activity-induced astrometric jitter.
    Invoked to extend solar measurements to other stars.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 7729 in / 1219 out tokens · 50001 ms · 2026-05-20T08:07:57.422861+00:00 · methodology

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