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arxiv: 2606.02473 · v1 · pith:LPBW36ISnew · submitted 2026-06-01 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.SR

Orbit Refinement of WASP-18 b and Evidence Against the Existence of WASP-18 c

Avinash Salguneswaran Nediyedath , Kyle A. Pearson , Tara Fetherolf , Andre O. Kovacs This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-28 12:26 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.SR
keywords WASP-18 btransit ephemeristransit timing variationsradial velocityexoplanethot Jupiterorbital period
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The pith

Refined ephemeris for WASP-18 b shows no consistent transit or radial velocity signals for a second planet.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper collects 205 transit light curves from TESS, CHEOPS and other sources to tighten the orbital period of WASP-18 b to 0.94145252 days with a propagated timing uncertainty of only 2.41 seconds by 2030. It then folds 449 radial velocity measurements from five spectrographs into the same analysis and searches for periodic signals that would indicate an additional planet. No significant, repeatable periodicity appears in both the transit-timing and radial-velocity data sets at once. A reader would care because an accurate ephemeris lets future telescopes schedule observations without accumulating timing error, and because ruling out extra planets clarifies whether hot Jupiters like WASP-18 b are typically alone or accompanied.

Core claim

Using the combined transit and radial-velocity data sets, the authors derive a new linear ephemeris for WASP-18 b and find that the most significant periodicities identified in either data type fail to appear consistently in the other; they therefore conclude that the previously proposed companion WASP-18 c does not produce detectable, dynamically relevant signals and is likely spurious.

What carries the argument

A high-precision linear ephemeris fitted to 205 transits, cross-checked against periodic signals extracted from 449 radial-velocity points, with consistency between the two data types required before any second planet is accepted.

If this is right

  • The updated ephemeris can be used to schedule observations through at least 2030 with sub-three-second timing uncertainty.
  • Claims of additional planets in hot-Jupiter systems should be tested for consistency across independent transit-timing and radial-velocity data sets.
  • The WASP-18 system is consistent with a single-planet architecture on the timescales probed by the current observations.
  • The derived Love number k2 = 0.62199 +/- 0.0011 provides a constraint on the internal structure of WASP-18 b.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Similar single-method detections of additional companions around other hot Jupiters may also be spurious when subjected to multi-technique consistency tests.
  • Future space-based photometry or high-precision radial-velocity campaigns can treat the published ephemeris as a reliable zero-point for searching smaller TTV signals.
  • The absence of a second planet reduces the dynamical complexity that would otherwise need to be modeled when interpreting the planet's inflated radius or tidal evolution.

Load-bearing premise

That any real, dynamically relevant second planet would produce detectable and consistent periodic signals in both transit-timing and radial-velocity data when observations from multiple instruments are combined.

What would settle it

New transit-timing or radial-velocity observations that reveal the same periodicity in both data types at the period previously claimed for WASP-18 c.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.02473 by Andre O. Kovacs, Avinash Salguneswaran Nediyedath, Kyle A. Pearson, Tara Fetherolf.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Target pixel files for WASP-18 (TIC 100100827) during TESS observations created using tpfplotter (Aller et al. 2020) that shows potential contamination and dilution from neighboring stars. The 11 × 11 pixel flux map displays the electron flux (e −/s) per pixel. The orange-red outlined region defines the photometric aperture selected for light curve extraction. The red circles indicate sources identified in… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Top panels: Nested sampling posterior triangle plots and posterior distributions using EXOTIC for WASP-18 b for TESS sectors 30 and 69. The data points are color-coded to the likelihood of each fit, with darker colors indicating a higher likelihood. Bottom panels: Example phase-folded transit light curves of WASP-18 b for TESS sectors 30 and 69, respectively. The gray points represent the light curve photo… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Combined residuals using Exoplanet Watch, ETD, ExoClock, Literature (see [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Top two rows: Phase-folded best-fit model (gray line) plotted against RV observations across three distinct temporal segments to account for the long observational baseline. Third Row: RV observations along with the best-fit model in phase space of the WASP-18 b orbital period. Bottom Row: Residuals from the RV measurements [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Posterior probability distributions for the WASP-18 b orbital solution derived from MCMC sampling. Dashed vertical lines in the 1D histograms represent the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles. The tight constraint on ˙ω and its consistency with previous literature confirms the stability of the apsidal signal over our 15-year observational baseline [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Top: Lomb-Scargle periodograms for the combined mid-transit times (left) and the TESS-only photometry (right). The orbital period of the planet is 1 epoch (0.94145252 days). The combined dataset exhibits several peaks above the 99% false alarm probability (FAP; Power ≈ 0.1), which are sensitive to sampling rates and represent significant aliasing artifacts from inhomogeneous ground-based observations. In c… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Top Panel: Lomb-Scargle Periodogram of the RV residuals. There are multiple peaks above the 99% FAP (Power ∼ 0.06) but none of them corroborate with previous findings of the WASP-18 c (∼2.1 days). Middle Panel: RV residuals fit with the periodogram fourier model of 1.4065 days and a linear model. Both show similar BIC values. Bottom Panel: RV residuals phase-folded at the highest detected peak of 1.4065 da… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We present an updated transit ephemeris for the exoplanet WASP-18 b and critically examine the existence of a proposed second planet, WASP-18 c. Using 205 transit light curves from TESS, CHEOPS, Exoplanet Watch, Exoplanet Transit Database and previous literature, we derive a refined mid-transit time of 2460933.096346 +/- 0.000022 BJD_TDB and an orbital period of 0.94145252 +/- 1.1 x 10^-8 days for WASP-18 b. Our forward-propagated ephemeris to January 1, 2030, shows a timing uncertainty of 2.41 seconds. This high-precision refinement serves as a robust baseline to test for Transit Timing Variations (TTVs), ensuring that any reported deviations are not artifacts of an insufficiently constrained orbital period. In addition, we analyze 449 radial velocity (RV) measurements from the CORALIE, HARPS, PFS, HIRES and ESPRESSO spectrographs to search for signatures of WASP-18 c, a previously proposed additional planetary companion, and also estimated the k2 love number as 0.62199 +/- 0.0011. However, we do not find significant variations in either transit timing or RV data that support the presence of WASP-18 c. Moreover, the most significantly identified periodicities are not consistently measured across the transit or RV datasets, strongly arguing against the existence of a dynamically relevant second planet in the system. Our results indicate that the claimed WASP-18 c signal is likely spurious in nature. Overall, this work enhances our understanding of the WASP-18 system and provides a valuable resource for future observational campaigns with the refinement of the b planet orbit and falsified status of the previously defined c planet.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

0 major / 3 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports a refined ephemeris for WASP-18 b derived from 205 transit light curves compiled from TESS, CHEOPS, Exoplanet Watch, Exoplanet Transit Database, and literature sources, giving a mid-transit time of 2460933.096346 ± 0.000022 BJD_TDB and orbital period of 0.94145252 ± 1.1×10^{-8} days, with a propagated timing uncertainty of 2.41 s to 2030. It further analyzes 449 radial-velocity measurements from CORALIE, HARPS, PFS, HIRES, and ESPRESSO, estimates the Love number k2 = 0.62199 ± 0.0011, and concludes that no consistent periodic signals appear in either the transit-timing or RV datasets that would support the previously proposed companion WASP-18 c; the claimed signal is therefore judged spurious.

Significance. If the non-detection is robust, the work supplies a high-precision ephemeris that will be directly useful for scheduling future transit observations and for testing dynamical models of the WASP-18 system. The multi-instrument consistency check on periodicities adds a concrete falsification test for an additional planet and illustrates the value of combining large transit and RV archives when assessing candidate companions.

minor comments (3)
  1. The abstract states that periodicities were identified but does not specify the periodogram algorithm, normalization, or false-alarm-probability threshold used; a brief methods paragraph describing these choices would strengthen the non-detection claim.
  2. The quoted period uncertainty (1.1 x 10^-8) mixes decimal and scientific notation; adopt consistent scientific notation throughout the manuscript and tables.
  3. The forward-propagated ephemeris uncertainty of 2.41 s is quoted without stating whether it includes only the linear term or also higher-order contributions from period derivatives; a short derivation or reference to the propagation formula would clarify this.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

0 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their positive assessment of our manuscript, including the recognition of the utility of the refined ephemeris and the value of the combined TTV and RV analysis in testing the WASP-18 c candidate. The recommendation for minor revision is noted. No specific major comments were raised in the report.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity identified

full rationale

The paper's derivation consists of standard least-squares fitting of an ephemeris to 205 external transit light curves from TESS, CHEOPS and other listed instruments, followed by a periodogram search on 449 RVs from five independent spectrographs. Neither the refined mid-transit time/period nor the non-detection of WASP-18 c reduces to any quantity defined by the authors' prior work; both are direct statistical outputs from the input observations. The k2 Love-number estimate is likewise a fitted parameter. No self-citations, ansatzes, or uniqueness theorems are invoked as load-bearing steps in the provided text, so the chain remains self-contained against external data.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

3 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the validity of combining heterogeneous transit and RV datasets and on the assumption that non-detection of consistent periodicities rules out a second planet; no new entities are postulated.

free parameters (3)
  • mid-transit time = 2460933.096346 BJD_TDB
    Fitted parameter reported as 2460933.096346 +/- 0.000022 BJD_TDB
  • orbital period = 0.94145252 days
    Fitted parameter reported as 0.94145252 +/- 1.1e-8 days
  • k2 love number = 0.62199
    Estimated parameter reported as 0.62199 +/- 0.0011
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Heterogeneous transit and RV datasets from different instruments can be jointly analyzed without dominant unmodeled systematics that would mask or mimic planetary signals.
    Invoked when merging TESS, CHEOPS, Exoplanet Watch, CORALIE, HARPS, PFS, HIRES and ESPRESSO data.

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