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arxiv: 2606.03740 · v3 · pith:PE2KIEDZnew · submitted 2026-06-02 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.SR

KRONOS I: The 1{-}2.8μm JWST Transmission Spectrum of the 23 Myr V1298 Tau c

Matthew M. Murphy , Matthew C. Nixon , Adina D. Feinstein , Luis Welbanks , Girish M. Duvvuri , Saugata Barat , Benjamin V. Rackham , Darryl Z. Seligman
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Michael Radica Ian J. M. Crossfield Kevin France John H. Livingston Jonathan Lunine Rafael Luque Catriona Murray Sagnick Mukherjee Biruk Nardos Sydney Petz Hinna Shivkumar
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-28 08:13 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.SR
keywords exoplanet atmospherestransmission spectroscopyJWSTyoung planetsatmospheric metallicityV1298 Tau cwater vaporsub-Neptunes
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The pith

The 23-Myr-old exoplanet V1298 Tau c shows atmospheric metallicity lower than mature planets of similar mass.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper reports the JWST NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum of V1298 Tau c, a young super-Earth progenitor. Analysis detects water vapor but no other molecules and infers an atmospheric metallicity of roughly 15 times solar. This value aligns with measurements for other young planets yet sits below those reported for mature planets of comparable mass and temperature. The authors interpret the pattern as tentative evidence that the mass-metallicity relation for exoplanets changes with age. A reader would care because the result bears on how planetary atmospheres acquire and retain heavy elements from formation onward.

Core claim

The authors obtain the 1-2.8 micron transmission spectrum of V1298 Tau c and detect H2O with a log10 volume mixing ratio of -1.83 +0.68/-0.77. Retrievals with and without stellar heterogeneity priors both yield an atmospheric metallicity [O/H] of 14.8 +56.0/-12.28 times solar. This metallicity matches values for other young planets, including the outer companion V1298 Tau b, but is systematically lower than metallicities reported for mature planets of similar mass and temperature. The paper therefore concludes that these results supply tentative but growing evidence that the exoplanet mass-metallicity relation evolves with planetary age.

What carries the argument

Atmospheric retrieval applied to the NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum, which extracts molecular volume mixing ratios and the metallicity [O/H] from the strength of absorption features.

If this is right

  • Metallicities measured for young planets remain similar to one another even across a range of planet masses.
  • Mature planets of comparable mass and temperature exhibit higher metallicities than the young sample.
  • Atmospheric metallicity must change after the first few tens of millions of years through ongoing accretion, mixing, or escape.
  • Further transmission spectra of young planets will be required to confirm whether the age trend is general.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Planet-formation models that tie metallicity only to core mass may need an explicit time dimension to match both young and mature observations.
  • Uniform re-analysis of existing young- and mature-planet spectra with identical retrieval setups would test whether the apparent age offset survives removal of methodological differences.
  • If the trend holds, it predicts that even younger planets should display still lower metallicities, a prediction testable with future observations of systems younger than 10 Myr.

Load-bearing premise

The retrieved [O/H] metallicity can be compared directly to literature values for mature planets without systematic offsets arising from differing retrieval assumptions, stellar activity corrections, or wavelength coverage.

What would settle it

A retrieval of the same spectrum that adopts the exact priors, activity corrections, and wavelength range used in a mature-planet study and returns a metallicity consistent with the mature sample would falsify the claimed age evolution.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.03740 by Adina D. Feinstein, Benjamin V. Rackham, Biruk Nardos, Catriona Murray, Darryl Z. Seligman, Girish M. Duvvuri, Hinna Shivkumar, Ian J. M. Crossfield, John H. Livingston, Jonathan Lunine, Kevin France, Luis Welbanks, Matthew C. Nixon, Matthew M. Murphy, Michael Radica, Rafael Luque, Sagnick Mukherjee, Saugata Barat, Sydney Petz.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: The band-integrated (∼0.85–2.83 µm) transit light curve of V1298 Tau c, normalized to the visit median flux, as observed using JWST/NIRISS SOSS on UT 2025 September 6. The transit contact points (t1–t4) are labeled. We see a significantly curved out-of-transit baseline and nu￾merous starspot crossing events (SCEs). ‡ these efforts, best practices for the reduction process are now relatively well known, and… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Detrended light curves and best-fit models of the NIRISS/SOSS Order 1 broadband light curve. Gray points are at the native time cadence of ∼13 s, and black points are binned to ∼5 min cadence. Each panel shows the result of the four methods we implemented to account for stellar surface heterogeneity features in the light curve: 1) masking the features, 2) modeling them as Gaussians, 3) modeling them with f… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The results of four independent methodologies for handling starspot crossing events during a transit of V1298 Tau c observed with JWST NIRISS/SOSS. Top: The ∼0.8–2.8 µm transmission spectra of V1298 Tau c at a resolution of R=100. The color corresponds to the fitting routine used (see Sections 3.2–3.5). The spectra are manually offset by 21 ppm for Case 1, 20 ppm for Case 3, and 120 ppm for Case 4 to have … view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: The 0.8–2.8µm spectrum of V1298 Tau. Top: Comparing the observed spectrum to the best-fit 3-compo￾nent model, and the individual components scaled by their respective covering fractions. Bottom: The corresponding data-model residuals. NIRISS/SOSS is flux calibrated to the ∼1% level according to the JWST User Documentation which is on the order of the magnitude of our residuals rela￾tive to the spectrum (≲5… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Our fiducial transmission spectrum of V1298 Tau c (black points) compared to the median retrieved models with (blue line) and without (orange line) enforcing informed stellar heterogeneity priors, each binned down to R=100. The 1, 2, and 3σ model uncertainties are illustrated by the colored shaded regions. We achieve excellent fits to the observed spectrum, which are largely insensitive to the exact stella… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Posterior distributions of key parameters from our atmospheric retrievals with (blue) and without (orange) informed stellar heterogeneity priors, as well as the best-fit pressure-temperature profile. The blue dotted lines illustrate the normal priors applied to fhet, Thet, and Tphot for the run with informed priors. The black line in the Mp panel represents the dynamical mass constraint of J. H. Livingston… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: , along with the best-fit retrieved model of S. Barat et al. (2024). The absolute transit depth and rela￾tive depths around the 1.4µm H2O feature are consistent between visits and facilities. As discussed by S. Barat et al. (2024), the HST spec￾trum exhibits relatively higher scatter and transit depth uncertainties, most likely due to a very limited pre￾transit baseline. Combined with its limited wavelengt… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Results of tests for evening-morning limb asym￾metry on V1298 Tau c. Top: The timing bias spectra from our uniform-limb spectroscopic fits in Cases 1 (blue) and 2 (green), compared to the analytic model (black line) of M. M. Murphy et al. (2024). Bottom: The evening- (or￾ange) and morning-limb (blue) spectra compared to their corresponding uniform-limb spectra (gray). The Case 2 re￾sults are all offset by … view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Placing V1298 Tau c into context with other young and mature exoplanets. Top: atmospheric metallicity versus planet mass. The masses for V1298 Tau bc are from J. H. Livingston et al. (2026). Bottom: bulk density ver￾sus equilibrium temperature. We present systems with con￾strained ages in color and assume systems without ages are mature (> 1 Gyr). Planets with lower limits on atmospheric metallicity are p… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Top: The transmission spectrum of V1298 Tau c, at a resolution R=50, derived assuming three different limb darkening profiles when fitting the spectroscopic light curves, and enforcing only uniform priors on the coefficients. In each case, we mask all starspot crossing features seen in the light curve. Middle: The fitted transit depth uncertainties from each case. Bottom: The difference in transit depths … view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Comparing the best-fit logarithmic limb darkening coefficients u1 (top) and u2 (bottom) from Cases 1, 2, and 4 to predictions from ATLAS (solid) and Phoenix (dashed) stellar models. ‡ reflect a difference in where the coefficient profile turns over, as the models predict the peak value to occur around ∼1.55 µm but we instead measure it near ∼1.4 µm. Evident by the error bar sizes in each panel, we also fi… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Comparing the best-fit quadratic limb darkening coefficients u1 (top) and u2 (bottom) from Cases 3 to predictions from ATLAS (solid) and Phoenix (dashed) stellar models. ‡ upward slope. At longer wavelengths where the profiles all flatten, the freely fitted coefficients are fairly consistent in magnitude with the Phoenix model predictions, and slightly offset relative to the ATLAS values. N. M. Kostogryz … view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Corner plot from our retrieval using informed stellar heterogeneity priors. V1298 Tau not only has a significant magnetic field strength, but that its strength may vary by nearly ∼2× over a few years (B. Finociety et al. 2023). Therefore, the magnetic field of V1298 Tau is likely driving the observed discrepancies in the limb darkening coefficients. B. FULL ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVAL RESULTS Here we provide th… view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Corner plot from our retrieval using uninformed stellar heterogeneity priors. C. COLLECTION OF LITERATURE METALLICITIES In Section 8.1, we present a collection of metallicities for mature exoplanets. These are based on a variety of methodologies, and are inferred from the presence and estimated abundances of various combinations of molecules: H2O (GJ 9827 d and TOI-421 b; C. Piaulet-Ghorayeb et al. 2024; … view at source ↗
read the original abstract

While recent JWST observations of mature super-Earths and sub-Neptunes have frequently revealed featureless transmission spectra, their inflated progenitors offer a unique window into understanding their primordial compositions. As part of the Keys to Revealing the Origin and Nature Of sub-neptune Systems (KRONOS) JWST program, we present the NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum of V1298 Tau c, a $\sim$23 Myr super-Earth progenitor orbiting a young Solar analog. We detect H$_2$O in V1298 Tau c's atmosphere with a $\log_{10}$ volume mixing ratio of $-1.83^{+0.68}_{-0.77}$, but no additional molecules from these data alone. We find consistent results for the planetary atmospheric properties in both retrievals with and without informed priors on stellar heterogeneities based on the observed stellar spectrum. We infer an atmospheric metallicity [O/H] of $14.8^{+56.0}_{-12.28}\times$ the solar value. This metallicity is similar to literature measurements for other young planets, including its massive outer companion V1298~Tau~b. In contrast, this measured metallicity is systematically lower than the metallicities of mature planets of similar mass and temperature. Altogether, these results provide tentative but growing evidence that the exoplanet mass--metallicity relation evolves with planetary age.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents the 1-2.8 μm JWST NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum of the ~23 Myr super-Earth progenitor V1298 Tau c. It reports a detection of H2O with log10 volume mixing ratio -1.83^{+0.68}_{-0.77}, no other molecules, and consistent atmospheric retrievals with and without informed stellar heterogeneity priors. The retrieved metallicity is [O/H] = 14.8^{+56.0}_{-12.28}×solar, stated to be similar to other young planets (including V1298 Tau b) but systematically lower than mature planets of comparable mass and T_eq, providing tentative evidence that the exoplanet mass-metallicity relation evolves with planetary age.

Significance. If the metallicity posterior is robust and the cross-study comparison holds, the result would supply useful constraints on atmospheric evolution or formation pathways as a function of age. A clear strength is the demonstration of consistent retrieval outcomes with and without stellar priors drawn from the observed stellar spectrum. The broad asymmetric uncertainties on [O/H], however, limit the strength of any evolutionary interpretation.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: The assertion that the metallicity is 'systematically lower' than literature values for mature planets of similar mass and temperature is not supported by the reported posterior 14.8^{+56.0}_{-12.28}×solar. The lower bound reaches only ~2.5×solar, which overlaps the range of many mature sub-Neptune metallicities; the 'systematically lower' statement therefore depends on the upper tail and requires a quantitative statistical comparison or explicit lower-bound test to remain load-bearing for the evolutionary claim.
  2. [Retrieval results] Retrieval results: The [O/H] value is derived from a single-molecule (H2O) detection over the limited 1-2.8 μm range with the paper's specific cloud/haze and stellar-heterogeneity parameterization. No section demonstrates that this setup produces metallicities on the same scale as the mature-planet retrievals being compared; differing forward-model assumptions, cloud treatments, or wavelength coverage could shift the inferred value by factors of several, directly affecting the central age-evolution claim.
minor comments (2)
  1. The asymmetric uncertainties on [O/H] should be tabulated alongside the young- and mature-planet comparison values to allow readers to assess overlap directly.
  2. Clarify in the text whether the 'informed priors on stellar heterogeneities' test fully addresses activity-induced offsets or only internal consistency.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful reading and valuable comments on our manuscript. We respond to each major comment below and indicate where revisions will be made.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: The assertion that the metallicity is 'systematically lower' than literature values for mature planets of similar mass and temperature is not supported by the reported posterior 14.8^{+56.0}_{-12.28}×solar. The lower bound reaches only ~2.5×solar, which overlaps the range of many mature sub-Neptune metallicities; the 'systematically lower' statement therefore depends on the upper tail and requires a quantitative statistical comparison or explicit lower-bound test to remain load-bearing for the evolutionary claim.

    Authors: We agree that the broad and asymmetric uncertainties on the [O/H] posterior result in overlap with some mature-planet values at the lower bound. The abstract statement reflects that the median lies below typical literature values for mature planets of comparable mass and T_eq, supporting the tentative evolutionary interpretation already qualified in the text. We will revise the abstract to explicitly note the lower-bound overlap and qualify the phrasing as 'tentatively lower' while retaining the comparison to the median. A full statistical test across all literature posteriors lies beyond the scope of this work. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Retrieval results] Retrieval results: The [O/H] value is derived from a single-molecule (H2O) detection over the limited 1-2.8 μm range with the paper's specific cloud/haze and stellar-heterogeneity parameterization. No section demonstrates that this setup produces metallicities on the same scale as the mature-planet retrievals being compared; differing forward-model assumptions, cloud treatments, or wavelength coverage could shift the inferred value by factors of several, directly affecting the central age-evolution claim.

    Authors: We acknowledge that the limited wavelength range and single-molecule constraint, combined with our specific cloud/haze and heterogeneity treatment, could introduce scale differences relative to other studies. Our retrieval follows standard forward-modeling practices used in the broader JWST sub-Neptune literature. We will add a dedicated discussion paragraph in the retrieval results section that explicitly addresses potential systematic offsets arising from wavelength coverage, cloud parameterization, and model assumptions, while reiterating the tentative nature of the age-evolution claim. This addition will qualify the comparison without requiring a full re-analysis of literature data. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity in retrieval-based metallicity measurement

full rationale

The paper's central result is an observational retrieval of [O/H] from the JWST NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum of V1298 Tau c, yielding a posterior with large uncertainties. This metallicity is obtained via standard atmospheric retrieval forward modeling with external priors on stellar heterogeneities derived from the observed stellar spectrum; it is not defined in terms of itself, nor does any equation reduce the reported value to a fitted input by construction. The claim of tentative evidence for an evolving mass-metallicity relation rests on direct comparison to independent literature values for other planets, without self-citation chains, uniqueness theorems, or ansatzes that would force the outcome. No load-bearing step matches the enumerated circularity patterns.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The analysis rests on standard atmospheric retrieval assumptions and two fitted quantities extracted from the spectrum; no new entities are postulated.

free parameters (2)
  • H2O log10 volume mixing ratio = -1.83
    Fitted directly from the transmission spectrum data.
  • atmospheric metallicity [O/H] = 14.8 x solar
    Derived metallicity scaled to solar; central value and asymmetric uncertainties reported.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Standard 1D atmospheric retrieval models accurately recover volume mixing ratios and metallicity from NIRISS/SOSS data when stellar heterogeneities are accounted for.
    Invoked to justify both informed-prior and uninformed retrievals.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5883 in / 1297 out tokens · 25067 ms · 2026-06-28T08:13:27.162310+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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