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arxiv: 2606.25359 · v1 · pith:XH52PFGYnew · submitted 2026-06-24 · 🌌 astro-ph.GA

Cosmological Galaxy Formation Modelling in the Era of the Square Kilometre Array

Claudia del P. Lagos (1) , Carlton M. Baugh , Connor Bottrell , Romeel Dave , Gabriella De Lucia , Jindra Gensior , Filip Hu\v{s}ko , Cedric G. Lacey
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Danail Obreschkow Kyle Oman Chris Power Nicole Thomas Ruby J. Wright Lizhi Xie ((1) International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR) M468 University of Western Australia Crawley WA Australia)
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-25 21:30 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.GA
keywords galaxy formationcosmological simulationssemi-analytic modelsSquare Kilometre Arrayatomic hydrogenmolecular gasradio continuumforward modeling
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The pith

Galaxy formation models must combine simulations across scales with forward modeling to interpret Square Kilometre Array observations of cold gas and radio emission.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper reviews advances showing that cosmological hydrodynamical simulations and semi-analytic models now jointly match many observed properties of atomic hydrogen, molecular gas, and radio continuum from star formation and active galactic nuclei. It identifies the ongoing difficulty of connecting sub-parsec star formation physics to gigaparsec cosmic structure as the main remaining obstacle to using the Square Kilometre Array to map galaxies across cosmic time. The central proposal is that a coordinated wedding-cake strategy linking simulations at different resolutions, plus forward modeling of observables and AI-driven emulators, will let these models both explain SKA data and actively guide future observations.

Core claim

Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations and semi-analytic models now jointly reproduce many observed gas properties, yet the challenge of bridging physical scales from sub-parsec star formation to gigaparsec cosmic structure remains. A coordinated wedding-cake strategy that unites simulations of different scales, forward modelling of observables to ensure fair comparison with data, and integration of AI-driven emulators will enable theoretical models to both interpret and guide SKA science on the cold gas and radio continuum of galaxies across cosmic time.

What carries the argument

The wedding-cake strategy that unites simulations of different scales, together with forward modelling of observables.

If this is right

  • Models will predict atomic hydrogen, molecular gas distributions, and radio continuum from star formation and active galactic nuclei across cosmic time.
  • Forward modelling will produce simulated observables that can be compared directly to SKA data without selection biases.
  • AI-driven emulators will speed up exploration of model parameters and uncertainty quantification.
  • Theoretical models will shift from post-observation interpretation to active prediction and experimental design for SKA surveys.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same coordinated multi-scale approach could be adapted to prepare models for other upcoming large radio or optical surveys.
  • Success of the strategy might isolate specific physical processes that still require new implementations in the simulations.
  • One could test the framework by applying it to predict SKA-detectable signals in particular galaxy types or redshift ranges not yet observed.

Load-bearing premise

The scale-bridging challenge can be solved by coordinating existing simulations of different resolutions and adding forward modelling plus emulators, without needing fundamental new physics.

What would settle it

SKA observations revealing gas properties or radio emission patterns that remain irreproducible by any combination of current hydrodynamical and semi-analytic models after forward modelling and emulator application.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.25359 by Australia), Carlton M. Baugh, Cedric G. Lacey, Chris Power, Claudia del P. Lagos (1), Connor Bottrell, Crawley, Danail Obreschkow, Filip Hu\v{s}ko, Gabriella De Lucia, Jindra Gensior, Kyle Oman, Lizhi Xie ((1) International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR), M468, Nicole Thomas, Romeel Dave, Ruby J. Wright, University of Western Australia, WA.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Modified from Crain and van de Voort (2023) to show the processes that are happening at different scales and place them into the context of what is directly simulated and what is modelled via so called “subgrid physics models”. The exact transition of when one goes from directly simulating to modelling depends on the tools at hand. The arrows at the top show the regions that are typically directly simulate… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: The distribution of gas particles or cells in the temperature vs density plane at 𝑧 = 0 in three different cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Eagle (left panel) (Crain et al., 2017) lacked an explicit model of the ISM and instead imposed an equation of state. Here, pixels are coloured by the mass fraction, showing that most of the gas mass in the 𝑧 = 0 universe is in the form of hot, low-density gas.… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Left panels: Joint distribution of HI column density (𝑁HI) and velocity dispersion (𝜎). Pairs of values are drawn from corresponding pixels in the 0 th and 2 nd moment maps of high- (∼ 25” ; top row – HR) and low-resolution (∼ 65” ; bottom row – LR) spectral cubes obtained with MeerKAT (left column) for a sample of 5 L★ galaxies. The centre and right columns show the same measurement for samples of galaxie… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: A compilation of observed galaxies collected by Santos-Santos et al. (2020) in the space of 𝜂rot and 𝜂bar. The 𝜂rot parameter is the ratio of the rotation curve amplitude at a suitably chosen ‘inner’ radius (𝑉fid) and its maximum (𝑉max), and serves as a proxy for the rotation curve shape: a higher (lower) value of 𝜂rot is suggestive of a dark matter cusp (core). The horizontal grey line marks the expectati… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: The HI velocity width function is a strong constraint on the halo mass function of gas rich galaxies and therefore a potential test of cosmological models, but faithfully modelling the galaxy distribution in HI mass (𝑀HI) and line width (𝑤50) requires capturing the complexity of cold gas dynamics. A detailed forward model of the spectra of galaxies in the GALFORM semi-analytic model (green line, adapted fr… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Taken from Figures 4 and 7 in Gensior et al. (2024). The maps on the left show face-on projection of the HI surface density for four example galaxies in the EMP-Pathfinder simulations employing a constant star formation efficiency (top) and an efficiency that depends on the turbulence of the ISM (bottom). The plot on the right shows radial profiles of the HI disc scale heights of the simulated galaxies, sh… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: The HI mass function at 𝑧 = 0 (solid lines), 𝑧 = 1 (dashed lines), and 𝑧 = 2 (dotted lines) in 3 semi-analytic models (Shark, GAEA, GALFORM) and 3 cosmological hydrodynamical simulations (Eagle, TNG and Simba), as labelled in each panel. Observations at 𝑧 ≈ 0 from Zwaan et al. (2005) and Jones et al. (2018) are shown as grey circles and crosses, respectively; while the inferred HI mass function at 𝑧 ≈ 1 fr… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: The HI mass vs halo mass relation at 𝑧 = 0 in 3 cosmological hydrodynamical simulations (TNG and two Eagle realisations) and 3 semi-analytic models of galaxy formation (Shark, GAEA and GALFORM). Also included is the empirical results of Padmanabhan et al. (2017) for reference. For Eagle we also show individual massive halos with symbols in the regime where medians cannot be calculated due to the low number… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: The Radio Luminosity Function (RLF) at 1.4 GHz between 𝑧=0 and 4 in the Shark semi-analytic model (Lagos et al., 2018, 2024). The top panels show the contribution from star formation; the middle panels from AGNs; and the lower panels show the combined contributions (i.e. star formation and AGNs). Comparisons are made with observational data of galaxies classified as star forming galaxies in the top panels… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p023_11.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Over the past decade, galaxy formation simulations have advanced dramatically, transforming our ability to model the interstellar medium (ISM) and predict galaxies' radio emission. Yet the challenge of bridging physical scales--from sub-parsec star formation to gigaparsec cosmic structure--remains. The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will map the cold gas and radio continuum of galaxies across cosmic time, demanding models that couple physical realism with cosmological reach. This chapter reviews the state-of-the-art in cosmological galaxy formation modelling in preparation for the SKA. We outline progress in simulating atomic hydrogen (HI), molecular gas, and radio continuum emission from both star formation and active galactic nuclei, highlighting how cosmological hydrodynamical simulations and semi-analytic models now jointly reproduce many observed gas properties. We emphasise the need for a coordinated, ``wedding-cake'' strategy that unites simulations of different scales, for forward modelling of observables to ensure fair comparison with data, and for the integration of new technologies such as AI-driven emulators to accelerate progress. Together, these efforts will enable theoretical models to both interpret and guide SKA science, turning simulations from passive interpreters into active engines for discovery.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

0 major / 1 minor

Summary. This review chapter summarizes advances in cosmological hydrodynamical simulations and semi-analytic models for predicting atomic (HI) and molecular gas properties as well as radio continuum emission from star formation and AGN. It states that these models now jointly reproduce many observed gas properties, identifies the persistent challenge of bridging sub-parsec to gigaparsec scales, and advocates a coordinated 'wedding-cake' multi-scale simulation strategy together with forward modeling of observables and AI-driven emulators to prepare for and interpret SKA data.

Significance. As a synthesis of the literature on ISM and radio modeling in cosmological contexts, the chapter provides a timely overview for the community ahead of SKA operations. Its emphasis on practical coordination strategies and new computational tools (emulators, forward modeling) offers guidance that could help turn existing simulation frameworks into more effective tools for both interpreting and planning SKA observations, provided the cited progress is accurately represented.

minor comments (1)
  1. The abstract paragraph on the 'wedding-cake' strategy would benefit from a brief parenthetical definition or cross-reference to the section where the term is first introduced in the main text, to aid readers unfamiliar with the concept.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

0 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their positive and constructive review. We are pleased that the manuscript is viewed as a timely synthesis providing useful guidance for the community ahead of SKA operations, and we appreciate the recommendation to accept.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

Review paper with no derivations or predictions that reduce to inputs

full rationale

This document is a review chapter summarizing published progress in hydrodynamical simulations and semi-analytic models for HI, molecular gas, and radio continuum. It advocates a wedding-cake multi-scale strategy, forward modeling, and AI emulators but presents no new equations, parameter fits, quantitative predictions, or derivation chains. All cited results come from external literature; the text contains no self-contained technical claims that could be circular by construction. This matches the default expectation of no significant circularity for review-style papers.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

This is a review paper summarizing existing work; no new free parameters, axioms or invented entities are introduced.

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