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arxiv: 2606.27476 · v1 · pith:L75XI3AInew · submitted 2026-06-25 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

Chemical Divergence and Water Depletion: Gas Properties of Evolved Upper Scorpius Disks Revealed by JWST/MIRI

Eshan Raul , Ke Zhang , Abygail Waggoner , Chengyan Xie , Nicholas Tallon , Andrea Banzatti , Colette Salyk , Klaus Pontoppidan
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Ilaria Pascucci Nicole Arulanantham Miguel Vioque Aaron Empey Carlo Manara Geoffrey A. Blake Paola Pinilla Feng Long Jinghuai Yao Jayatee Kanwar Naman S. Bajaj Mar\'ia Jos\'e Colmenares Till Kaeufer Benoit Tabone Edwin Bergin Lucas A. Cieza Mayank Narang James Miley Sebastiaan Krijt Giovanni Rosotti
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-29 01:05 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords protoplanetary disksUpper ScorpiusJWST/MIRImolecular emissionwater depletiondust trapschemical classification
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The pith

Upper Scorpius disks display high chemical diversity with depleted water and colder carbon molecules, where strong outer dust traps set the inner chemical outcome instead of dust cavities.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The survey of ten evolved disks ages 2-6 Myr uses JWST/MIRI spectra to detect and model lines from H2O, CO, C2H2, HCN, CO2 and other molecules via MCMC slab fits. Each disk receives a Water Classification by H2O line luminosity and a Chemotype by the dominant non-water species, revealing more variety than seen in younger regions. Carbon molecules show excitation temperatures below 300 K while water luminosities drop by factors of 10-1000 relative to 1-3 Myr disks. Disks that retain strong carbon features yet lack any H2O contradict the usual links to inner dust cavities or low gas-to-dust ratios, pointing instead to outer dust traps as the main control on terrestrial-zone chemistry.

Core claim

Upper Scorpius disks exhibit an unexpectedly high diversity of distinct chemical compositions. Disks with strong carbon-based molecular features but no observed H2O defy expectations of an inner-disk dust cavity or a low R_gas/R_dust ratio, instead suggesting that the presence of a strong outer-disk dust trap largely controls the chemical outcome of the terrestrial planet-forming region.

What carries the argument

Water Classification (Rich/Poor/Absent) and Chemotype (Organic-Rich/CO2-Dominated/Molecule-Absent) axes derived from MCMC slab modeling of molecular line luminosities, used to compare against ALMA dust-trap properties.

If this is right

  • Carbon molecules sit at excitation temperatures of 300 K or lower, colder than the 600-1000 K values typical in younger star-forming regions.
  • Water line luminosities fall by factors of 10-1000 compared with 1-3 Myr disks.
  • New wavelength regions are identified as diagnostics for species including C2H2, HCN, HC3N, and CO2.
  • Strong outer dust traps correlate with carbon-rich, water-absent inner chemistry, overriding the influence of inner cavities.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Disks that form terrestrial planets in systems with mature outer traps may inherit carbon-dominated rather than water-rich conditions.
  • ALMA maps of trap strength could be cross-checked against these chemotypes to test whether trap mass or location sets the inner outcome.
  • The observed spread in compositions at fixed age implies that local dust dynamics matter more than global age for chemical pathways.

Load-bearing premise

Non-detection of H2O lines reflects a genuine absence of water molecules in the inner disk rather than viewing geometry, optical depth, or limits in the slab modeling.

What would settle it

A direct detection of H2O emission in one of the Water-Absent disks at higher sensitivity or with alternate modeling would undermine both the classification and the outer-trap control claim.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.27476 by Aaron Empey, Abygail Waggoner, Andrea Banzatti, Benoit Tabone, Carlo Manara, Chengyan Xie, Colette Salyk, Edwin Bergin, Eshan Raul, Feng Long, Geoffrey A. Blake, Giovanni Rosotti, Ilaria Pascucci, James Miley, Jayatee Kanwar, Jinghuai Yao, Ke Zhang, Klaus Pontoppidan, Lucas A. Cieza, Mar\'ia Jos\'e Colmenares, Mayank Narang, Miguel Vioque, Naman S. Bajaj, Nicholas Tallon, Nicole Arulanantham, Paola Pinilla, Sebastiaan Krijt, Till Kaeufer.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Full MIRI/MRS of the Upper Sco sample over 4.9-28 µm, grouped primarily by Water Classification Type (as defined in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: The full sample of the normalized continuum subtracted spectra of the ten Upper Sco disks presented in this paper, grouped primarily by Chemotype (as defined in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Total best-fitting slab models for all Organic-Rich (OR) disks in the AGE-PRO Upper Scorpius sample, where the bottom row of each panel shows the individual molecular contributions, while the top row shows the total model fit to the data (black line). This plot is split into three wavelength windows for each disk; each window possesses a different y-axis flux scale in order to highlight relatively smaller … view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Total best-fitting slab models for our CO2-Dominated (CD) disks (USco 3 and 7), as well as the two disks with “tentative” CO2 features (USco 10 and 6), done in the same manner as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Plot showing the detection rate of different chemical classes of disks as defined in Sec. 3.2 for our AGE-PRO Upper Scorpius sample vs. the 19 K- and 7 M-type stars from the JDISCS C1 sample. All Upper Sco disks presented here are M-dwarfs. This shows the greatly increased chemical diversity of our more evolved Upper Scorpius sample, suggesting a divergence in chemistry at older ages. Within JDISCS C1, the… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Violin plots showing the line luminosity values of the different H2O temperature components, C2H2, HCN, and CO2, sorted by sample and spectral type. Our AGE-PRO Upper Sco sample (∼2-6 Myr) is compared to the younger JDISCS C1 sample (∼1–3 Myr), where our Upper Sco sample is entirely M-types. This demonstrates the trend of strong water depletion and generally weaker molecular emission in our more evolved sa… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: C2H2 and HCN cold organic feature shapes in the AGE-PRO Upper Scorpius (∼2-6 Myr) sample compared to the warmer organic features in the JDISCS C1 (1-3 Myr) sample (N. Arulanantham et al. 2025). The JDISCS C1 Average Organic Model is computed from only the average C2H2 and HCN contributions to the best-fitting models of disks in JDISCS C1 that demonstrate detections of both species, as warm H2O was especial… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: The top three panels show several line luminosities (as defined in Sec. 2.5) normalized by the 13 µm continuum luminosity, plotted as a function of the n13−26 spectral index, which shows how quickly the flux changes from 13-26 µm, indicative of a possible inner-disk dust cavity, for our Upper Scorpius sample (2-6 Myr) compared to the younger JDISCS C1 sample (∼1–3 Myr) These show that (excluding our faint … view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Cartoon depicting the different outer-disk dust trapping scenarios outlined in Sec. 4.3 for ALMA-resolved disks with distinct substructure from the AGE-PRO Upper Scorpius sample. Radial profiles (central column) of the Water-Poor (WP) disk USco 10, Water-Absent (WA)/CO2-Dominated (CD) disk USco 7, WA/Organic-Rich (OR) disk USco 8, and WA/Molecule-Absent (MA) disk USco 1 are all taken from M. Vioque et al. … view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Trend plots showing the line luminosity values of the different H2O temperature components, C2H2, HCN, and CO2 as a function of accretion luminosity serving as a proxy of age (where Lacc decreases with time; note inverse x-axis). Our AGE-PRO Upper Sco sample (∼2-6 Myr) is compared to the younger JDISCS C1 sample (∼1–3 Myr) , separated by spectral type, where our Upper Sco sample is entirely M-types. This … view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Trend plots showing our computed line luminosity values in the same manner as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p031_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Plot showing the ratio of the line-luminosity of several carbon-based molecules to H2O as a function of stellar luminosity (note inverse x-axis), done in a similar manner to S. L. Grant et al. (2025). We compare this to the JDISCS C1 (1-3 Myr) (N. Arulanantham et al. 2025) and MINDS (left panel, T. Henning et al. 2024) samples separated by spectral type. All AGE-PRO Upper Sco disks are M-types. A rough bo… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: SEDs of the AGE-PRO Upper Sco sample, done in a similar manner to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p033_13.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Total best-fitting slab model for our sole Water-Rich (WR) disk USco 5 from ∼11.75-26.55 µm. See [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p035_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Total best-fitting slab model for the Molecule-Absent disk USco 1 (WA, MA) showing tentative OH detections, possibly due to the presence of asymmetric OH doublets in the spectrum. See Sec. A.3 for comments. 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 Wavelength ( m) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Flux (mJy) H2 S(5) H2 S(4) H2O(H) CH4 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p037_15.png] view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: Total best-fitting slab model for lower wavelength regions of USco 2 with a tentative CH4 detection. We note that water emission at these wavelengths is typically not in LTE (A. Banzatti et al. 2025), and therefore the models in this region should be taken with caution, as our methodology employs LTE slab modeling (C. Salyk 2022), which typically overestimates these features [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full… view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: Total best-fitting slab model for the Water-Rich (WR) disk USco 5 showing lower wavelength regions with non-LTE water. Due to non-LTE emission, CO was modeled with two separate components, one for the 1-0 and one for the 3-2 and 2-1 vibrational transitions. The 1-0 transitions correspond to a (1000-1400K) component and the 3-2 and 2-1 transitions correspond to a warmer component (1400-1800K). This was don… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Tracing the chemical evolution of protoplanetary disks over time requires observations of disks at different ages. However, most JWST/MIRI surveys published to date have targeted younger ($\sim$1-3 Myr) rather than older systems. We present the results of a JWST/MIRI MRS survey of the inner regions of 10 protoplanetary disks (ages $\sim$2-6 Myr, spectral types M0-M4.5) in the Upper Scorpius region previously characterized by the ALMA AGE-PRO large program. Using MCMC slab modeling, we fit to a wide variety of detected molecules, including H$_2$O, CO, C$_2$H$_2$, $^{13}$CCH$_2$, HCN, HC$_3$N, CO$_2$, $^{13}$CO$_2$, C$_2$H$_6$, C$_4$H$_2$, and OH, as well as C$_6$H$_6$, CH$_3$, and H$_2$ visually. We classify each disk along two independent axes-a Water Classification based on H$_2$O line luminosity (Water-Rich, Water-Poor, or Water-Absent) and a Chemotype based on the dominant non-water chemistry (Organic-Rich, CO$_2$-Dominated, or Molecule-Absent)-and find an unexpectedly high diversity of distinct chemical compositions within our population. We leverage the heterogeneity of detected molecules in our sample to present new characteristic "diagnostic" wavelength regions for most species. We find that carbon-based molecules consistently exhibit markedly lower excitation temperatures ($\lesssim$300 K) compared to younger ($\sim$1-3 Myr) star-forming regions ($\sim$600-1000 K), hinting at relatively colder molecular reservoirs. We also determine that Upper Scorpius disks show systematically lower water luminosities by factors of 10-1000. In particular, disks with strong carbon-based molecular features but no observed H$_2$O defy expectations of an inner-disk dust cavity or a low ($\lesssim3$) $R_{\rm gas}/R_{\rm dust}$ ratio, instead suggesting that the presence of a strong outer-disk dust trap largely controls the chemical outcome of the terrestrial planet-forming region.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper presents JWST/MIRI MRS observations of 10 Upper Scorpius protoplanetary disks (ages ~2-6 Myr, M0-M4.5) previously characterized by ALMA AGE-PRO. Using MCMC slab modeling, the authors detect and fit molecules including H2O, CO, C2H2, HCN, CO2 and others, classify each disk on two axes (Water Classification: Rich/Poor/Absent based on H2O line luminosity; Chemotype: Organic-Rich/CO2-Dominated/Molecule-Absent), report lower carbon-molecule excitation temperatures (<300 K) and water luminosities (factors of 10-1000) than in younger regions, and interpret disks showing strong carbon features but no H2O as evidence that strong outer-disk dust traps control terrestrial-region chemistry, defying expectations from inner dust cavities or low R_gas/R_dust ratios.

Significance. If the Water-Absent classifications prove robust to modeling assumptions and the dust-trap correlation is quantitatively demonstrated against the ALMA data, the result would provide key constraints on how outer-disk structures influence inner-disk chemistry in evolved systems, with implications for terrestrial planet formation models. The diagnostic wavelength regions and direct comparison to younger star-forming regions are useful additions.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the claim that disks with carbon-based features but no observed H2O 'defy expectations' and indicate outer-disk dust traps control chemistry assumes non-detections reflect intrinsic depletion rather than geometry, optical depth, or slab-model limitations. The MCMC description provides no tests of inclination effects on projected emitting area, continuum optical depth, temperature structure priors, or LTE departures; a 1 dex shift in H2O upper limits would shrink the 'defy expectations' subsample and weaken the correlation.
  2. [Modeling and classification sections] Modeling and classification sections: no error bars, fit statistics (e.g., reduced chi-squared), or robustness checks against alternative slab models or priors are reported for the MCMC fits. This makes it impossible to assess whether the Water-Absent and Chemotype assignments are stable, directly affecting the central diversity and dust-trap claims.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states 'we classify each disk along two independent axes' but does not tabulate the final counts per class or list which disks fall into the key 'carbon features but no H2O' category used for the dust-trap interpretation.
  2. [Results] The phrase 'visually' for C6H6, CH3, and H2 detection is imprecise; the manuscript should specify the exact criterion (e.g., S/N threshold or visual inspection protocol) used for these species.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive comments, which highlight important aspects of our analysis and interpretation. We address each major comment below and describe the revisions planned for the manuscript.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the claim that disks with carbon-based features but no observed H2O 'defy expectations' and indicate outer-disk dust traps control chemistry assumes non-detections reflect intrinsic depletion rather than geometry, optical depth, or slab-model limitations. The MCMC description provides no tests of inclination effects on projected emitting area, continuum optical depth, temperature structure priors, or LTE departures; a 1 dex shift in H2O upper limits would shrink the 'defy expectations' subsample and weaken the correlation.

    Authors: We agree that the abstract language is strong and that non-detections could in principle arise from geometric or optical-depth effects rather than intrinsic depletion. Our Water-Absent classification is observationally defined by the absence of detectable H2O lines above the noise floor, and the correlation with ALMA dust-trap properties is presented as suggestive rather than definitive. In revision we will soften the abstract phrasing, add an explicit caveats paragraph in the discussion, and include supplementary MCMC runs that vary inclination, continuum optical depth, and temperature priors to quantify their impact on the derived luminosities and classifications. A sensitivity test to a 1 dex change in upper limits will also be shown. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Modeling and classification sections] Modeling and classification sections: no error bars, fit statistics (e.g., reduced chi-squared), or robustness checks against alternative slab models or priors are reported for the MCMC fits. This makes it impossible to assess whether the Water-Absent and Chemotype assignments are stable, directly affecting the central diversity and dust-trap claims.

    Authors: We concur that the absence of reported fit statistics and robustness tests reduces transparency. The revised manuscript will include (i) reduced chi-squared values for every slab-model fit, (ii) 1-sigma posterior uncertainties on all fitted parameters (including line luminosities), and (iii) an appendix with explicit robustness checks that repeat the MCMC analysis under alternative priors and slab-model assumptions (single- vs. two-temperature components). These additions will allow direct evaluation of the stability of the Water Classification and Chemotype assignments. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: observational classifications and inferences are data-driven

full rationale

The paper is an empirical JWST/MIRI survey that performs MCMC slab fits to observed spectra, classifies disks by measured H2O line luminosities and dominant chemistry, and offers an interpretive inference about outer-disk dust traps. No equations, predictions, or derivations are presented that reduce by construction to fitted parameters or self-citations. Classifications follow directly from the data; the dust-trap suggestion is post-hoc interpretation, not a self-referential derivation. This matches the default case of a self-contained observational study.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only; no explicit free parameters, axioms, or invented entities are stated. Slab modeling implicitly assumes local thermodynamic equilibrium or slab geometry for excitation temperatures, but these are standard in the field and not quantified here.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 6086 in / 1203 out tokens · 31745 ms · 2026-06-29T01:05:01.439631+00:00 · methodology

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