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Skewness of a randomized quasi-Monte Carlo estimate

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arxiv 2405.06136 v2 pith:33YST74Y submitted 2024-05-09 math.NA cs.NAstat.CO

classification math.NAcs.NAstat.CO
keywords epsilonintervalsskewnesssomeundercarloconfidencegenerator
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abstract

Some recent work on confidence intervals for randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) sampling found a surprising result: ordinary Student $t$ 95% confidence intervals based on a modest number of replicates were seen to be very effective and even more reliable than some bootstrap $t$ intervals that were expected to be best. One potential explanation is that those RQMC estimates have small skewness. In this paper we give conditions under which the skewness is $O(n^\epsilon)$ for any $\epsilon>0$, so 'almost $O(1)$'. Under a random generator matrix model, we can improve this rate to $O(n^{-1/2+\epsilon})$ with very high probability. We also improve some probabilistic bounds on the distribution of the quality parameter $t$ for a digital net in a prime base under random sampling of generator matrices.

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  1. Error estimation for quasi-Monte Carlo

    math.NA 2024-12 accept novelty 2.0 of 10

    A review of uncertainty quantification for quasi-Monte Carlo that recommends Student's t intervals from at least 10 randomized replicates and identifies near-symmetry of RQMC errors as a promising but unproven basis f...

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