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arxiv 2506.10340 v1 pith:BYRZAHUN submitted 2025-06-12 econ.TH

Seeding an Uncertain Technology

classification econ.TH
keywords productwhenagentsinitialnetworkoptimalseedsstartup
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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I study how a startup with uncertainty over product quality and no knowledge of the underlying diffusion network optimally chooses initial seeds. To ensure widespread adoption when the product is good while minimizing negative perceptions when it is bad, the optimal number of initial seeds should grow logarithmically with network size. When there are agents of different types that govern their connectivity, it is asymptotically optimal to seed agents of a single type: the type that minimizes the marginal cost per probability of making the product go viral. These results rationalize startup behavior in practice.

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