Stability and instability towards delocalization in MBL systems

We propose a theory that describes quantitatively the (in)stability of fully MBL systems due to ergodic, i.e. delocalized, grains, that can be for example due to disorder fluctuations. The theory is based on the ETH hypothesis and elementary notions of perturbation theory. The main idea is that we assume as much chaoticity as is consistent with conservation laws. The theory describes correctly -even without relying on the theory of local integrals of motion (LIOM)- the MBL phase in 1 dimension at strong disorder. It yields an explicit and quantitative picture of the spatial boundary between localized and ergodic systems. We provide numerical evidence for this picture. When the theory is taken to its extreme logical consequences, it predicts that the MBL phase is destabilised in the long time limit whenever 1) interactions decay slower than exponentially in $d=1$ and 2) always in $d>1$. Finer numerics is required to assess these predictions.