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arxiv: 2606.18082 · v1 · pith:GJVIHLSUnew · submitted 2026-06-16 · 🌌 astro-ph.GA

Variability in Cosmological Hydrodynamical Simulations: how Stochastic Processes, Numerical Effects, and Reproducibility Limits impact Predictability

Chaitra , Antonio Ragagnin , Milena Valentini , Giuseppe Murante , Stefano Borgani , Giuliano Taffoni This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 00:08 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.GA
keywords cosmological hydrodynamical simulationsstochastic variabilitygalaxy formationreproducibilityfeedback regulationblack hole physicszoom-in simulationsmixed linear model
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The pith

Four identical galaxy-cluster simulations produce 10-25% differences in galaxy dark matter and stellar masses.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper evolves four copies of the same zoom-in cluster simulation under fixed code and hardware conditions to isolate effects from random elements in the physics. It measures how galaxy properties scatter across these runs using a statistical model that distinguishes run-to-run differences from internal noise. Dark matter and stellar masses vary by 10-25 percent above the level expected from simple particle counting, with the spread arising from stochastic star formation and feedback. Feedback itself reduces the scatter in stellar and black hole masses, while adding black hole physics increases the overall variability. The differences leave the ensemble of runs statistically reproducible even though single realizations differ.

Core claim

By comparing matched galaxies across four controlled realizations of the same zoom-in simulation, the work shows that stochastic star formation and feedback produce 10-25% variations in galaxy dark matter and stellar masses. Feedback acts to regulate this scatter, reducing variability in stellar and black hole masses, while black hole physics amplifies it. The run-to-run differences indicate a noise-dominated but statistically reproducible regime at low resolution.

What carries the argument

A mixed linear model applied to properties of matched galaxies across repeated runs, which separates run-to-run variation from within-run noise under fixed compiler and hardware conditions.

If this is right

  • Feedback regulation reduces scatter in both stellar and black hole masses.
  • Inclusion of black hole physics increases the amplitude of run-to-run variability.
  • The observed variations remain above the shot-noise floor while the overall results stay statistically reproducible.
  • Low-resolution baseline estimates are established for future reproducibility studies.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Reproducibility tests in other codes or at higher resolution could reveal whether numerical resolution changes the balance between stochastic and deterministic effects.
  • Observational comparisons of galaxy populations should incorporate an intrinsic simulation scatter floor when judging model fidelity.
  • The same statistical separation of noise sources could be applied to suites of simulations that vary initial conditions rather than random seeds.

Load-bearing premise

The four realizations differ only by the intended stochastic processes and the mixed linear model cleanly isolates run-to-run variation from within-run noise.

What would settle it

Running additional realizations and finding that the measured scatter falls to the pure shot-noise floor or deviates systematically from the mixed linear model predictions.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.18082 by Antonio Ragagnin, Chaitra, Giuliano Taffoni, Giuseppe Murante, Milena Valentini, Stefano Borgani.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Visual representation of the Dianoga simulation for the Fiducial model showing 4 realizations of the same galaxy cluster at [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) at z ≈ 0 for Fiducial simulation set. Each colored line corresponds to an identical run (clone) in the set, con￾sidering aggregate of stellar mass reported by SUBFIND for all galaxies in the respective run. The lower panel shows the relative differences of each clone’s GSMF with respect to the mean of the ensemble, illustrating the minimal clone￾to-clone variation. The h… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Global star formation history across the four clones of the Fiducial [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Distribution of residuals in galaxy stellar mass for the Fiducial simu [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Variation in galaxy dark matter mass (left panel) and stellar mass (right panel: stellar mass is comprised of all stellar particles within an aperture of 50 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Total variation (Method 1) in galaxy stellar mass as a function of look [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Same as Figure 5, but for Fiducial simulations including black holes. Variation in galaxy dark matter mass (left panel) and stellar mass (right panel) is [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: GSMF for the feedback models: FID, ZERO, HIGH feedback at [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Total variation (only Method 1) in galaxy dark matter mass as a func [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Histogram of maximum circular velocities at [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Total variation (Method 1) in galaxy stellar mass (left panel) and black hole mass (right panel) as a function of lookback time (Gyr), shown for the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Total variation (Method 1) in galaxy stellar mass (left panel) and cold gas mass (right panel); as a function of lookback time (Gyr), shown for Fiducial [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_13.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Stellar mass versus subhalo mass correlation for few of the most massive BCGs in Fiducial double precision runs (left panel) and mixed precision runs [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Stellar masses of the N most massive galaxies across a [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_15.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations are powerful tools for studying galaxy formation, yet their predictive precision is limited by stochastic variability and numerical uncertainty. We quantify this variability using four identical realizations of a zoom-in galaxy-cluster simulation evolved with \textsc{OpenGadget3} under tightly controlled compiler, library, and hardware settings. Variability is measured through the properties of matched galaxies across repeated runs, including a mixed linear model that separates run-to-run variation from within-run noise. Variations of approximately $10$-$25\%$ are found in galaxy dark matter and stellar masses for the baseline simulations. The variability trending above the shot-noise floor reflects the combined effects of stochastic star formation and feedback regulation, and is further amplified when black hole physics is included. Furthermore, our results indicate that feedback acts to regulate variability, reducing scatter in both stellar and black hole masses. Our inference from run-to-run variation indicates a noise-dominated regime that remains statistically reproducible, despite individual realization differences. These results establish baseline, noise-dominated variability estimates at low resolution, demonstrate how feedback modulates predictability, and provide a statistical framework for future studies of reproducibility in cosmological hydrodynamical simulations.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The paper claims that four identical realizations of a zoom-in galaxy-cluster simulation run with OpenGadget3 under tightly controlled compiler/library/hardware settings exhibit 10-25% run-to-run variability in matched galaxy dark-matter and stellar masses. A mixed linear model is used to separate stochastic run-to-run variation from within-run noise; the variability exceeds shot noise, is modulated by feedback (which reduces scatter), and is further increased when black-hole physics is included, yet the overall regime remains noise-dominated and statistically reproducible.

Significance. If the central variability estimates hold, the work supplies a much-needed quantitative baseline for reproducibility limits in cosmological hydrodynamical simulations at low resolution. The controlled experimental design and explicit statistical framework for decomposing sources of variation are genuine strengths that future studies can build upon.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract / mixed linear model section] Abstract and the mixed-linear-model description: the headline 10-25% variability figures are obtained from a mixed linear model fitted to only four realizations. With four groups the between-run variance component is estimated from three degrees of freedom; no residual diagnostics, recovery tests on synthetic data, or sensitivity checks to the within-run error structure are referenced, leaving open the possibility that modest misspecification inflates or deflates the reported percentages by amounts comparable to the claimed signal.
  2. [Galaxy matching and data selection] Galaxy-property section: the criteria used to match galaxies across the four runs, the rules for excluding unmatched or poorly resolved objects, and the precise definition of the within-run noise term are not numerically specified. These choices directly affect the input data to the mixed model and therefore the 10-25% claim; without them the result cannot be independently verified.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states that feedback “acts to regulate variability” but does not quantify the reduction in scatter (e.g., by what factor or in which mass bins).

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments on our manuscript. We address each major point below and indicate where revisions will be made.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract / mixed linear model section] Abstract and the mixed-linear-model description: the headline 10-25% variability figures are obtained from a mixed linear model fitted to only four realizations. With four groups the between-run variance component is estimated from three degrees of freedom; no residual diagnostics, recovery tests on synthetic data, or sensitivity checks to the within-run error structure are referenced, leaving open the possibility that modest misspecification inflates or deflates the reported percentages by amounts comparable to the claimed signal.

    Authors: We agree that four realizations provide only three degrees of freedom for the between-run variance component and that this is a limitation of the experimental design. The mixed linear model follows standard practice for decomposing hierarchical variance in repeated simulations, and the reported variability exceeds the shot-noise floor by a clear margin. Nevertheless, we will add residual diagnostics, a brief recovery test on synthetic data with known variance components, and sensitivity checks to the within-run error structure in a revised Methods section to quantify any potential impact of misspecification. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Galaxy matching and data selection] Galaxy-property section: the criteria used to match galaxies across the four runs, the rules for excluding unmatched or poorly resolved objects, and the precise definition of the within-run noise term are not numerically specified. These choices directly affect the input data to the mixed model and therefore the 10-25% claim; without them the result cannot be independently verified.

    Authors: The manuscript describes the matching procedure and exclusion criteria in the Galaxy Matching subsection, but we accept that the numerical thresholds (e.g., maximum separation, minimum particle number, and the exact formulation of the within-run noise term) are stated only qualitatively. We will insert the precise numerical values and the explicit formula for the within-run noise term in the revised text so that the input data to the mixed model can be reproduced exactly. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; variability is measured directly from simulation outputs

full rationale

The paper's central result is an empirical measurement of run-to-run variability in galaxy properties across four controlled realizations, using a mixed linear model to decompose variance components. No load-bearing step reduces the reported 10-25% figures to a quantity defined by the authors' own prior choices, fitted parameters, or self-citations. The model is applied as a standard statistical tool to the simulation data rather than creating a self-referential loop, and the abstract and methods frame the outcome as a direct observation of stochastic effects rather than a derived prediction equivalent to its inputs. The derivation chain remains self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the assumption that the four runs differ solely by stochastic processes under fixed numerical settings; no free parameters, invented entities, or additional axioms beyond standard numerical hydrodynamics are introduced in the abstract.

axioms (1)
  • domain assumption The four realizations are identical except for stochastic star formation and feedback processes.
    Stated directly in the description of 'identical realizations' evolved under 'tightly controlled compiler, library, and hardware settings'.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5762 in / 1360 out tokens · 30595 ms · 2026-06-27T00:08:11.132793+00:00 · methodology

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Reference graph

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