Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

As of 8 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 0 of 0 outbound references and 20 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2409.19839.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2409.19839 v5

Coverage vector

measured 0 of 0 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 20 of 20 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00

measured 20 of 20 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-08T20:20:35.292300Z

measured 1 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-08-05T02:28:24.338817Z

Reference resolution

0 of 0 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy0
unresolved0
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

1
arxiv_reference, observed 2026-08-05T02:28:24.338817Z

Outbound references

No outbound reference observations are available for this paper version.

Pith citing papers

Observation a3a53c92-9084-487d-83ff-e3cc00420273 · inbound

LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future cites this paper.

LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-08T20:20:35.292300Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4261ec35-ba33-4678-b329-acfc6b24422d · inbound

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters cites this paper.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:10.828930Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0cd05966-ff5e-464d-9e8a-51b3cec2e9f0 · inbound

Predicting Empirical AI Research Outcomes with Language Models cites this paper.

Predicting Empirical AI Research Outcomes with Language Models ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:05:55.960132Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 9fb22fb3-1bb9-470f-8581-28824d80fba4 · inbound

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents cites this paper.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:22.891847Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c193ab5d-2522-42e1-a708-437b014007b9 · inbound

PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data cites this paper.

PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 14

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-13T19:18:09.270180Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 5641e39a-4f36-418c-87e7-541a665ef857 · inbound

CT Open: An Open-Access, Uncontaminated, Live Platform for the Open Challenge of Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction cites this paper.

CT Open: An Open-Access, Uncontaminated, Live Platform for the Open Challenge of Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 2

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-10T09:18:32.237918Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 1961e808-6400-4a8e-b283-03d8cb26263b · inbound

Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting cites this paper.

Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 13

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-09T01:44:32.475523Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 49b0f301-7acf-4f36-bf6d-4f26d776f117 · inbound

Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents cites this paper.

Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 16

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T15:56:34.738093Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation c90a5993-00cf-4f75-b978-0e5e11180bc0 · inbound

Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems cites this paper.

Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 13

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T16:36:10.226084Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation d01e71f9-aa7d-48e0-b016-37abda54b6c6 · inbound

OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking cites this paper.

OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 5

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T23:41:16.847009Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 49273cf1-14ad-477b-9de9-ecfa5a299f64 · inbound

StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment cites this paper.

StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 14

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-06-29T21:43:58.612052Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 9733031c-cc19-443f-8a20-e6151382e2eb · inbound

ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark cites this paper.

ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 6

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-04T00:09:14.513919Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 3278a938-f030-43be-a43d-288e6910a36f · inbound

From Forecasting Leaderboards to Deployment Decisions: A Fail-Closed Certification Protocol cites this paper.

From Forecasting Leaderboards to Deployment Decisions: A Fail-Closed Certification Protocol ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 1

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-04T16:39:58.522885Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 2956ced1-fdf8-4e87-8b66-487c9cd4e56d · inbound

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting cites this paper.

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 16

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T19:47:18.715976Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation f4ea5445-9837-4f99-bca6-eb5dcfb3b136 · inbound

Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry cites this paper.

Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 5

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T14:48:32.594746Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 9ac5225e-5268-4396-bbbb-6a47d39e0bb0 · inbound

Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents cites this paper.

Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 49d34918-3090-49d7-b30d-19c9a0ba714a · inbound

FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches cites this paper.

FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T17:08:13.168788Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7e55414c-3677-448a-9d2c-6ed03f08f147 · inbound

WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting cites this paper.

WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T16:11:33.775476Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a7e01ae2-2f1f-4c8f-8d6c-d0031bf62ec9 · inbound

Question Begets Question: Self-Evolving Curriculum for Reinforcement Fine-Tuning on Competition Mathematics cites this paper.

Question Begets Question: Self-Evolving Curriculum for Reinforcement Fine-Tuning on Competition Mathematics ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T00:08:24.264070Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5631c270-2358-4f58-a2fd-2ac6db1592b6 · inbound

Adversarial Fast-Moving Real-World Domains as Test Beds for Benchmarking AI Scientist Capabilities cites this paper.

Adversarial Fast-Moving Real-World Domains as Test Beds for Benchmarking AI Scientist Capabilities ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T16:49:30.512877Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.