Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models

As of 9 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 13 of 13 outbound references and 5 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2507.03120.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2507.03120 v1

Coverage vector

measured 13 of 13 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:55.761663Z

measured 18 of 18 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00

measured 5 of 5 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-04T07:16:38.175252Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-07-01T19:36:08.899746Z

Reference resolution

13 of 13 outbound references displayed

verified exact1
verified fuzzy3
unresolved9
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 629bdfa6-d2b2-4926-8926-acbbb346ec77 · outbound

This paper cites difficult latitude task.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models difficult latitude task

Reference 2

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:56.282338Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

Observation fbe62af6-094b-47c5-bb0b-06e6b1270760 · outbound

This paper cites Perez, S.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Perez, S

Reference 3

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:56.479394Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

Observation 9a1a5aef-6107-4ce1-b433-1f63eee4128f · outbound

This paper cites Gemma 3 Technical Report.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Gemma 3 Technical Report

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:54.947408Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation e33ca9db-00da-42fd-b9f1-805cb4875ebe · outbound

This paper cites Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:55.293654Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 949d3b7c-2feb-468e-ab0e-542558767ab6 · outbound

This paper cites Measuring short-form factuality in large language models.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Measuring short-form factuality in large language models

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:55.431654Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 9cd09aa1-07ac-4a8b-97e1-54a882256b8d · outbound

This paper cites Multiple-Choice Questions are Efficient and Robust LLM Evaluators.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Multiple-Choice Questions are Efficient and Robust LLM Evaluators

Reference 11

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:55.605482Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2ada5b71-b414-4734-a530-0c9df4be7ff0 · outbound

This paper cites In addition there was underconfidence in the Answer Shown - Opposite Advice condition (OUCS = -0.25) due to the overweighting of opposing information.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models In addition there was underconfidence in the Answer Shown - Opposite Advice condition (OUCS = -0.25) due to the overweighting of opposing information

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:56.115466Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

Observation 02b840e1-e767-4182-b4ed-890f807a526f · outbound

This paper cites Accounting for Sycophancy in Language Model Uncertainty Estimation.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Accounting for Sycophancy in Language Model Uncertainty Estimation

Reference 2009

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:55.944957Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

Observation c8407017-e10a-491d-b2a4-243b6573d181 · outbound

This paper cites Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs

Reference 2019

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:55.521086Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 3bc85edd-9b99-450c-b761-5bdc94cb39b2 · outbound

This paper cites Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models

Reference 2021

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:54.638875Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7d6f52c6-14da-400f-8d05-f7029d078292 · outbound

This paper cites GPT-4 Technical Report.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models GPT-4 Technical Report

Reference 2022

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:54.359817Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 37d056cf-6f80-42e3-aa35-fe83e7ae870e · outbound

This paper cites On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

Reference 2023

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:54.288465Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8294562d-caf4-45f4-873a-df1bceb7a1dd · outbound

This paper cites Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback.

How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback

Reference 2025

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T20:25:55.114325Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

Observation 4b9c9bfa-2c23-4005-8bb4-fb7376474153 · inbound

AI as Equalizer or Amplifier? Task Complexity as the Moderating Factor for Human Expertise in Hybrid Intelligence Systems cites this paper.

AI as Equalizer or Amplifier? Task Complexity as the Moderating Factor for Human Expertise in Hybrid Intelligence Systems How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-04T07:16:38.175252Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4d05bbe0-1095-4209-b733-0bc92b93c18a · inbound

Learning from Self-Debate: Preparing Reasoning Models for Multi-Agent Debate cites this paper.

Learning from Self-Debate: Preparing Reasoning Models for Multi-Agent Debate How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models

Reference 10

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-21T14:30:13.827602Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

Observation d1dde2f7-5e39-47fd-983a-ff8358f5b8e5 · inbound

Causal Evidence that Language Models use Confidence to Drive Behavior cites this paper.

Causal Evidence that Language Models use Confidence to Drive Behavior How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models

Reference 10

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-21T09:44:05.642922Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

Observation ca592e0b-fe58-4473-b2d5-bb85375136ba · inbound

Before You Interpret the Profile: Validity Scaling for LLM Metacognitive Self-Report cites this paper.

Before You Interpret the Profile: Validity Scaling for LLM Metacognitive Self-Report How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models

Reference 8

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-10T05:51:10.573741Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

Observation 71fb39b7-acfc-4e83-a431-6268904345d5 · inbound

What Am I Missing? Question-Answering as Hidden State Probing cites this paper.

What Am I Missing? Question-Answering as Hidden State Probing How Overconfidence in Initial Choices and Underconfidence Under Criticism Modulate Change of Mind in Large Language Models

Reference 13

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-01T19:36:08.901041Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.