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Tip of the Red Giant Branch Distances to NGC 1316, NGC 1380, NGC 1404, & NGC 4457: A Pilot Study of a Parallel Distance Ladder Using Type Ia Supernovae in Early-Type Host Galaxies

T0 review · 5 major / 4 minor · reviewed 2026-08-05 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read This paper builds a parallel distance ladder using TRGB distances to five massive early-type galaxies and 124 matched ZTF Hubble-flow Type Ia supernovae, obtaining H0 = 75.3 ± 2.9 km/s/Mpc with unusually low scatter.

desk verdict A careful, honest pilot of a parallel TRGB+SN Ia ladder in early-type hosts; the new data are real, the low scatter is interesting, and the main soft spot — no bias corrections for fast-declining SNe — is one the authors already admit. read the letter →

arxiv 2508.20023 v2 pith:RVOM3BCI submitted 2025-08-27 astro-ph.CO

Max J. B. Newman , Conor Larison , Saurabh W. Jha , Kristen B. W. McQuinn , Evan D. Skillman , Andrew E. Dolphin , Mi Dai , D. Andrew Howell
show 5 more authors
Curtis McCully K. Azalee Bostroem Daichi Hiramatsu Craig Pellegrino Estefania Padilla Gonzalez
This is my paper
classification astro-ph.CO
keywords HubbleconstanttipoftheredgiantbranchTypeIasupernovaeearly-typegalaxiesdistanceladderSNstandardizationZTFhost-galaxyenvironment
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper asks whether Type Ia supernovae in massive, quiescent galaxies—about 40 percent of the low-redshift population, but usually left out of Cepheid-calibrated ladders—can anchor an independent distance ladder. It measures tip-of-the-red-giant-branch (TRGB) distances to four such host galaxies and adds a fifth from the literature, then calibrates the supernova absolute magnitude with these five objects. Applying the same host-galaxy and light-curve selection to a large low-redshift survey's Hubble-flow sample gives 124 matched supernovae with a Hubble-diagram residual scatter of 0.106 mag, lower than typical cosmological samples. The resulting Hubble constant is H0 = 75.3 ± 2.9 km/s/Mpc, consistent with other local measurements and about 2.7σ above the CMB-inferred value. If the approach scales, matching supernova and host properties across redshift would reduce a major systematic in distance-ladder cosmology.

What carries the argument

TRGB—the sharp brightness cutoff at the helium flash of old, low-mass red giants—is the second-rung distance indicator usable in galaxies where Cepheids do not exist. The operational innovation is the matched sub-volume sample: both calibrators and Hubble-flow SNe Ia sit in the same narrow box of host mass, host color, decline rate x1, and color c, with the volume-limited ZTF sample meant to remove selection-bias corrections. A joint fit of the linear standardization relation µ = mB + αx1 − βc + γ(log M* − 10) − MB over both samples determines H0, MB, α, β, γ, and intrinsic scatter in one MCMC, so calibration and cosmology are self-consistent.

What would settle it

Measure the TRGB in a massive early-type galaxy with an independent geometric distance (maser or eclipsing-binary anchor); if the early-type TRGB zero-point differs from the star-forming anchor calibration by more than about 0.05 mag, H0 shifts by more than the quoted uncertainty and the transfer assumption fails. A second check: a spectroscopically complete sample of fast-declining SNe Ia past z≈0.06 should show the same x1 and c distributions as the volume-limited sample; if they do not, the no-bias-correction premise is violated.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

A parallel distance ladder can be built entirely from old stellar populations. TRGB distances are measured for NGC 1316, NGC 1380, NGC 1404, and NGC 4457 from HST and JWST imaging, plus a literature distance for NGC 4636, giving six SNe Ia in five massive quiescent hosts. Blinded sample selection yields 124 matched ZTF Hubble-flow SNe Ia in the same environment/light-curve box (host mass > 10, color g−z > 1, −2 < x1 < 0, −0.2 < c < 0.1, z = 0.023–0.06). A joint linear standardization with a host-mass term gives α = 0.209 ± 0.016, β = 2.11 ± 0.17, γ = 0.111 ± 0.029, intrinsic scatter 0.079 ± 0.009 mag, and H0 = 75.3 ± 1.7 (stat) ± 2.4 (sys) km/s/Mpc. The low scatter and environment-specific c

Load-bearing premise

The result rests on the TRGB absolute-magnitude zero-point, calibrated in star-forming anchor galaxies, applying unchanged to the old, metal-rich stellar populations of massive early-type hosts—plus the assumption that fast-declining SNe Ia in the volume-limited ZTF sample need no selection-bias corrections.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If the TRGB zero-point transfers to old, metal-rich populations, this ladder provides an H0 measurement whose second-rung systematics are independent of Cepheid-based ladders.
  • The 0.106 mag Hubble-flow scatter implies that environmental matching alone can produce a more homogeneous SN Ia sample than the full population, so larger volume-limited surveys can improve precision without new calibration methods.
  • Fast-declining SNe Ia require their own standardization coefficients (steeper α, shallower β); applying full-sample values to early-type-host samples biases the distance scale.
  • A matched-subsample strategy is recommended for future SN Ia cosmology: as JWST and next-generation telescopes expand TRGB reach, the calibrator sample can grow and the quoted ~2.9 km/s/Mpc uncertainty should shrink.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the low scatter persists with more calibrators, the residual SN Ia scatter is largely environmental, which suggests a physically motivated age or progenitor parameter could replace some empirical corrections in future standardizations.
  • Because the paper shares TRGB data and SN light curves with earlier ladders, the 2.7σ offset from the CMB is not yet a fully independent check; a cleaner test would require new early-type TRGB distances from JWST to hosts that have not been used in any prior H0 program.
  • The 0.4 mag discrepancy between the sibling SNe 2007on and 2011iv in NGC 1404, and the exclusion of SN 2007on from the fiducial sample, is a natural stress test: if a larger sample reproduces such outliers, SALT2's x1 parameter is probably not adequate below x1 ≈ −2, and alternative fast-decliner models should be used.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

5 major / 4 minor

Summary. The paper presents TRGB distances to four massive early-type SN Ia host galaxies (NGC 1316, NGC 1380, NGC 1404, NGC 4457) from HST ACS and JWST NIRCam imaging, plus a literature TRGB distance for NGC 4636. These calibrate a sample of SNe Ia in quiescent, massive hosts, which are jointly standardized with a matched sample of 124 ZTF SN Ia DR2 Hubble-flow SNe Ia selected on host mass, host color, x1, c, and redshift. The authors obtain H0 = 75.3 ± 1.7 (stat) ± 2.4 (sys) km/s/Mpc, with a Hubble-flow residual scatter of 0.106 mag. They advocate for future distance-ladder analyses that match calibrator and Hubble-flow samples in host and supernova properties. The TRGB photometry is carefully executed with DOLPHOT, artificial star tests, spatial culling, and blinding of sample definitions, and the analysis code is public.

Significance. If the result holds, this is a valuable proof of concept for a parallel distance ladder using TRGB distances to early-type galaxies, a population excluded from Cepheid-based ladders. The low Hubble residual scatter (0.106 mag) suggests that environmental matching may improve SN Ia standardization. The measurement is consistent with other local determinations and shows a 2.7σ tension with Planck, though the data are not independent of CCHP/SH0ES samples. The paper is transparent about several limitations, but the central H0 value is presented as a measurement despite relying on assumptions that are not fully validated. The approach is novel and timely, and the public code and careful blinding are strengths.

major comments (5)
  1. [§5.1, §6; Eqs. (4)–(5)] The central H0 estimate relies on the assumption that the zhelio < 0.06 volume-limited ZTF sample is free of selection bias for the fast-declining SNe selected here (x1 < 0; five of six calibrators with x1 < -1.4). The support offered—no trend in x1 and c with distance—does not establish that the joint (mB, x1, c) selection is unbiased; a magnitude-limited survey can still lose low-luminosity objects near z ≈ 0.06. Since the same sample is used to fit α, β, γ and H0, any incompleteness propagates into MB and H0. The 2.5% systematic covers only the photometric zeropoint. The paper's own suggestion of a forward simulation is not carried out; the quoted H0 should be presented as conditional on this assumption, or the systematic should be enlarged.
  2. [§5.3, Table 6] The fiducial result excludes SN 2007on via the x1 > -2 cut. Including it raises H0 by 1.7 km/s to 77.0, comparable to the statistical error and a large fraction of the systematic. Even within the same analysis philosophy, the 'no host mass correction' (74.0) and 'add SN 1994D' (74.4) variants shift H0 by 1–2%. The quoted systematic error of ±2.4 km/s does not include sample-definition or model-choice uncertainty. The paper should either motivate a single objective sample definition and verify it with a blinded sensitivity analysis, or add a systematic term covering the Table 6 spread.
  3. [Table 4] The adopted NGC 4636 distance has an internal inconsistency: the two NIRCam detectors give m_TRGB(F090W)=26.813±0.035 (NRCA1) and 26.608±0.035 (NRCA2), a 0.205 mag difference, yet the adopted μ=31.12±0.07 corresponds to NRCA1 only. The quoted uncertainty is much smaller than the detector-to-detector scatter. Since SN 2020ue in NGC 4636 is one of the five fiducial calibrators, this introduces an unquantified ~0.2 mag uncertainty into the calibration. The discrepancy should be explained, or the adopted distance should incorporate the scatter.
  4. [§5.1] The paper excludes 'seven clear outliers' from the Hubble-flow sample without specifying quantitative criteria. The fit is then performed on the remaining 124 objects and σ_int = 0.079 mag is quoted after this removal. Outlier rejection of this kind can bias both the standardization parameters and the reported scatter; the lack of objective criteria makes the result difficult to reproduce. The authors should provide the rejection criteria or demonstrate that the H0 inference is unchanged (within statistics) when the outliers are included with robust fitting.
  5. [§6] The TRGB zero-point is calibrated on star-forming anchor galaxies (e.g., NGC 4258) and transferred to old, high-metallicity early-type hosts. The paper acknowledges this as a potential bias but does not include any systematic term for it. A quantitative test—e.g., comparing TRGB distances to early-type galaxies with independent SBF or Cepheid distances, or a model of TRGB metallicity dependence—would bound this risk. As it stands, the H0 result inherits this assumption without a corresponding uncertainty.
minor comments (4)
  1. [§5.3, Figure 8 caption] The text in §5.1 says seven clear outliers are excluded, but the Figure 8 caption says 'five removed outliers'. Please reconcile this inconsistency.
  2. [Eq. (2)] The quadratic term appears as '[(F606W-F814W)-1.1]2'; should be written with a superscript 2 or a squared bracket for clarity. Also define F814W_fiducial and F814W_corrected explicitly.
  3. [§3.2, §4] Typographical issues: 'Compared to the this study' should be 'Compared to this study'; 'the data were reduced in the standard method with lcogtsnpipe' should be 'reduced using the standard method with lcogtsnpipe'.
  4. [References] The reference 'C. P. Ahn & et al. 2013' should be formatted as 'Ahn, C. P., et al.'; the ampersand is erroneous.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity; H0 is a fitted output of a standard TRGB+SN Ia distance ladder with externally anchored zero-points.

full rationale

The paper's derivation is a standard distance ladder. Eq. (4) defines calibrator absolute magnitude MB = mB - mu_TRGB + alpha*x1 - beta*c + gamma(logM-10) and Hubble-flow distances 5logdL(H0) = mB - MB + alpha*x1 - beta*c + gamma(logM-10) - 25; H0 is a free parameter in a joint MCMC fit, not an input. No equation reduces H0 to a fitted constant or to the TRGB zero-point. The TRGB zero-points are adopted from external calibrations: Freedman (2021) for F814W and Newman et al. (2024b) for F090W. Although Newman et al. is first-authored by a coauthor, it is a separate published calibration anchored to geometric/nearby standards; the paper does not use the present H0 to set it, and the same galaxies are compared against independent HST/SH0ES distances. The NGC 4636 distance is adopted from Anand et al. (2025), an independent measurement. The paper's Section 6 caveats—possible TRGB population differences between star-forming anchors and early-type hosts, and the lack of explicit SN bias corrections for the volume-limited z<0.06 sample—are acknowledged systematic/selection risks, not circular steps: they do not make H0 equal to an input by construction. The low Hubble residual scatter is an empirical property of the matched sample after fitting only three standardization slopes (alpha, beta, gamma), and is validated by external comparisons. Therefore no self-definitional, fitted-input-as-prediction, or self-citation-chain circularity is present.

Assumptions & free parameters 7 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the assumptions listed above. The free parameters are standard standardization coefficients and a fitted ZTF zeropoint correction. No new physical entities are introduced. The most fragile inputs are the universality of the TRGB zero-point across galaxy types and the absence of bias corrections for the fast-declining SN population.

free parameters (7)
  • alpha (x1 standardization coefficient) = 0.209 ± 0.016
    Fitted in the joint MCMC distance ladder fit (Section 5.2).
  • beta (color standardization coefficient) = 2.11 ± 0.17
    Fitted in the joint MCMC distance ladder fit (Section 5.2).
  • gamma (host stellar mass standardization coefficient) = 0.111 ± 0.029
    Fitted in the joint MCMC fit; a linear host-mass correction is included because the sample spans a restricted high-mass range (Section 5.2).
  • sigma_int (intrinsic scatter) = 0.079 ± 0.009 mag
    Fitted as a free parameter in the joint model (Section 5.2).
  • MB (SN Ia absolute magnitude) = -19.152 ± 0.059 mag
    Determined by the calibrator SNe Ia using TRGB distances, but still a fitted parameter in the joint model (Section 5.2).
  • ZTF mB zeropoint offset for pre-Nov-2019 SNe = +0.024 ± 0.035 mag
    Determined from 28 SNe observed in common with Las Cumbres Observatory photometry; this is a fitted calibration correction (Section 5.1).
  • TRGB luminosity function parameters A, B, C = A: prior mean 0.3, sigma 0.07; C: prior mean 0.3, sigma 0.2
    Free parameters in the maximum-likelihood TRGB fit of each galaxy (Equation 1), but they are nuisance parameters that do not affect the distance scale beyond the fitted TRGB magnitude.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption The TRGB absolute magnitude is universal after color-based metallicity correction.
    Invoked in Section 3.1 and Section 6, where the authors apply the Jang & Lee (2017) quadratic correction and adopt zero-points calibrated in star-forming anchor galaxies. If the zero-point differs in old, high-metallicity early-type galaxies, the entire ladder is biased.
  • domain assumption SNe Ia in the fast-declining subsample obey the same Tripp standardization relation (Equation 3) with a single set of coefficients.
    The joint fit in Section 5.2 assumes a global alpha, beta, gamma apply to both calibrators and Hubble-flow objects, despite evidence that alpha varies with decline rate.
  • domain assumption Matched host-galaxy and light-curve selection removes environmental systematics.
    The core methodological premise; the paper argues that restricting to massive, quiescent hosts with similar x1 and c yields a homogeneous subsample with low scatter.
  • domain assumption The ZTF volume-limited sample with zhelio < 0.06 is free of selection bias for fast-declining SNe Ia.
    The authors use this to justify not applying bias corrections (Section 6). If brighter, faster-declining SNe Ia are preferentially missed at higher redshifts within the sample, the distance scale would be biased.
  • standard math Flat Lambda-CDM cosmology with Omega_M = 0.3 for the Hubble-flow redshift-distance relation.
    Used in the Hubble-flow distance formula (Equation 4). This is standard practice but is an input assumption for the H0 inference.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Tip of the Red Giant Branch Distances to NGC 1316, NGC 1380, NGC 1404, & NGC 4457: A Pilot Study of a Parallel Distance Ladder Using Type Ia Supernovae in Early-Type Host Galaxies." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/RVOM3BCI

@misc{pith2026250820023,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Tip of the Red Giant Branch Distances to NGC 1316, NGC 1380, NGC 1404, & NGC 4457: A Pilot Study of a Parallel Distance Ladder Using Type Ia Supernovae in Early-Type Host Galaxies},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/RVOM3BCI}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2508.20023}
}
abstract

Though type-Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are found in all types of galaxies, recent local Hubble constant measurements have disfavored using SNe Ia in early-type or quiescent galaxies, aiming instead for better consistency with SNe Ia in star-forming, late-type host galaxies calibrated by Cepheid distances. Here we investigate the feasibility of a parallel distance ladder using SNe Ia exclusively in quiescent, massive ($\log M_*/M_{\odot} \geq 10$) host galaxies, calibrated by tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) distances. We present TRGB measurements to four galaxies: three measured from the Hubble Space Telescope with the ACS F814W filter, and one measured from the JWST NIRCam F090W filter. Combined with literature measurements, we define a TRGB calibrator sample of five high-mass, early-type galaxies that hosted well-measured SNe Ia: NGC 1316 (SN 2006dd), NGC 1380 (SN 1992A), NGC 1404 (SN 2007on, SN 2011iv), NGC 4457 (SN 2020nvb), and NGC 4636 (SN 2020ue). We jointly standardize these calibrators with a fiducial sample of 124 Hubble-flow SNe Ia from the Zwicky Transient Facility that are matched in host-galaxy and light-curve properties. Our results with this homogenized subsample show a Hubble residual scatter of under 0.11 mag, lower than usually observed in cosmological samples of the full SN~Ia distribution. We obtain a measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0 = 75.3 \pm 2.9$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, including statistical and estimated systematic uncertainties, and discuss the potential to further improve the precision of this approach. As calibrator and supernova samples grow, we advocate that future cosmological applications of SNe Ia use subsamples matched in host-galaxy and supernova properties across redshift.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2508.20023 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. The observed fields for TRGB distance measurements for each galaxy in this study. Clockwise from the top left are NGC 1316, NGC 1380, NGC 1404, and NGC 4457. Background images are 3-color Legacy Survey Data Release 10 (LS-DR10; A. Dey et al. 2019) images where we assign the g, r, and i bandpasses to the green, blue, and red channels, respectively. Overlaid on images are either the ACS (NGC 1316, NGC 1404, and NGC 44… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. We demonstrate our high-fidelity photometry catalog culling method applied to NGC 1404 to identify the appropriate spatial region and crowding parameter threshold. We include only photometry for NGC 1404 from ACS chip 2 as a result of chip 1 producing suboptimal photometry due to the highly crowded center of NGC 1404. Left: Individual points are stars in our initial photometry catalog. The cut-off for each concentri… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. The high-fidelity extinction-corrected stellar catalog for NGC 1316. Left: The spatial distribution of stellar sources included (excluded; see § 2.1.4) in the TRGB fit is shown as black (light blue) points. Center: The final high-fidelity CMD from which we measure the TRGB magnitude. The horizontal black line marks the location of the TRGB with the uncertainty band (orange-shaded region). Right: The CMD of stars wit… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (9 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Similar to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_4.png]
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Similar to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_5.png]
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Similar to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_6.png]
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Photometry of the six SNe Ia for which we fit dis￾tances in this work. The epochs are presented in terms of the rest-frame phase. The solid line on each panel is the SALT2 model fit, while the dashed line is the BayeSN model fit. BayeSN seems to perform better for the …
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Hubble diagram (upper panel) and residuals (lower panel) from ZTF Hubble-flow SNe Ia (M. Rigault et al. 2025) in massive, quiescent host galaxies, with our fiducial sample cuts (0.023 < z < 0.06, −2 < x1 < 0, and −0.2 < c < +0.1) and self-consistent SN Ia standardizati…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Standardization of Hubble flow (blue squares) and calibrator (black circles) SN Ia samples versus SALT2 light-curve decline rate (x1), SALT2 color (c), and host-galaxy stellar mass. The dark points comprise our fiducial sample, while the low-opacity points show the ful…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Standardized absolute magnitudes of the calibrator SNe Ia based on TRGB distances presented here. The right y-axis shows the implications for H0 assuming our fiducial Hubble-flow sample. SN 2007on in NGC 1404, with SALT2 x1 = −2.06 ± 0.04, is excluded from our fiducia…
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Corner plot visualizing the MCMC samples in our joint standardization of the fiducial ZTF Hubble-flow and calibrator samples, with the inference for H0. Systematic uncertainties are not included here [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_11.png]
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: TRGB analysis for the parallel UVIS observations of NGC 4457. This field is located further away from the dense nucleus of NGC 4457. It is a less crowded field, but it also has far fewer sources. Left: the spatial distribution of the sources in the UVIS field. Stars r…

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