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arxiv 2310.11435 v1 pith:SHE3BF6S submitted 2023-10-17 physics.flu-dyn

Uncertainty Quantification For Turbulent Flows with Machine Learning

classification physics.flu-dyn
keywords uncertaintylearningmachinemodelsturbulenceturbulentanalysisdesign
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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Turbulent flows are of central importance across applications in science and engineering problems. For design and analysis, scientists and engineers use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations using turbulence models. Turbulent models are limited approximations, introducing epistemic uncertainty in CFD results. For reliable design and analysis, we require quantification of these uncertainties. The Eigenspace Perturbation Method (EPM) is the preeminent physics based approach for turbulence model UQ, but often leads to overly conservative uncertainty bounds. In this study, we use Machine Learning (ML) models to moderate the EPM perturbations and introduce our physics constrained machine learning framework for turbulence model UQ. We test this framework in multiple problems to show that it leads to improved calibration of the uncertainty estimates.

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