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What is causal about causal models and representations?

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arxiv 2501.19335 v2 pith:UTAQTC6O submitted 2025-01-31 stat.ML cs.AIcs.LGmath.STstat.TH

classification stat.MLcs.AIcs.LGmath.STstat.TH
keywords causalmodelmodelsactionactionsbayesianchangeinterpretation
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which interventions in the model. For example, to interpret an action as an intervention on a treatment variable, the action will presumably have to a) change the distribution of treatment in a way that corresponds to the intervention, and b) not change other aspects, such as how the outcome depends on the treatment; while the marginal distributions of some variables may change as an effect. We introduce a formal framework to make such requirements for different interpretations of actions as interventions precise. We prove that the seemingly natural interpretation of actions as interventions is circular: Under this interpretation, every causal Bayesian network that correctly models the observational distribution is trivially also interventionally valid, and no action yields empirical data that could possibly falsify such a model. We prove an impossibility result: No interpretation exists that is non-circular and simultaneously satisfies a set of natural desiderata. Instead, we examine non-circular interpretations that may violate some desiderata and show how this may in turn enable the falsification of causal models. By rigorously examining how a causal Bayesian network could be a 'causal' model of the world instead of merely a mathematical object, our formal framework contributes to the conceptual foundations of causal representation learning, causal discovery, and causal abstraction, while also highlighting some limitations of existing approaches.

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  1. Linear Causal Representation Learning by Topological Ordering, Pruning, and Disentanglement

    stat.ML 2025-09 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

    By combining topological ordering, pruning, and disentanglement, CREATOR identifies linearly mixed latent causal variables up to permutation-and-scale ambiguity using only non-Gaussian noise.

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