Pith Number

pith:JOIDNAFS

pith:2026:JOIDNAFSVHBD7BADVRWH75TZIV

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Instance-Adaptive Online Multicalibration

Aaron Roth, Claire Jie Zhang, Jamie Morgenstern, Zhiming Huang

A single efficient algorithm achieves online multicalibration with error rates that automatically adapt to the complexity of the data sequence.

arxiv:2605.09273 v2 · 2026-05-10 · cs.LG

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\pithnumber{JOIDNAFSVHBD7BADVRWH75TZIV}

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3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We give a single, efficient algorithm which dynamically interpolates between benign and worst-case sequences by adaptively refining a dyadic grid of prediction values. Its error is controlled by the number of leaves in the refinement tree. ... the rate depends on a threshold-complexity measure of the predictable mean process relative to the group family. We show that this dependence is tight up to logarithmic factors.

C2weakest assumption

The analysis assumes that the threshold-complexity measure of the predictable mean process (relative to the given group family) is well-defined and that the algorithm can observe enough information to decide when to refine the dyadic grid without additional side information.

C3one line summary

A single online multicalibration algorithm adaptively refines a dyadic grid and achieves instance-dependent rates: O(T^{2/3}) worst-case, O(sqrt T) for marginal stochastic data, and O(sqrt(JT)) for J-piecewise stationary means.

Cited by

1 paper in Pith

Adaptive Calibration in Non-Stationary Environments

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-22T01:04:05.798767Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

4b903680b2a9c23f8403ac6c7ff6794559e924842a102d379196fcb4717b86c8

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.09273 · arxiv_version: 2605.09273v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.09273 · pith_short_12: JOIDNAFSVHBD · pith_short_16: JOIDNAFSVHBD7BAD · pith_short_8: JOIDNAFS

Agent API

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/JOIDNAFSVHBD7BADVRWH75TZIV \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 4b903680b2a9c23f8403ac6c7ff6794559e924842a102d379196fcb4717b86c8

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "4b1fa55881a995e83a78a7369943902a1f06e2c5bc30f240d33b9c1a5fc768f9",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-10T02:45:59Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "6978a7a0611978c68b9d78abd19c794f1e23e7d6b15b362a1b2392bf72371dcf"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.09273",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}