Pith Number

pith:WDDXTGB2

pith:2025:WDDXTGB2YQEWA7XXFFXJYOBKGA

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

Didier Sornette, Maochuan Zhang, Qinghua Lei, Scott L. Nooner, William S. D. Wilcock, William W. Chadwick Jr.

The Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment creates a falsifiable protocol that archives every prediction for later public release to test eruption predictability limits.

arxiv:2511.06128 v7 · 2025-11-08 · physics.geo-ph

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{WDDXTGB2YQEWA7XXFFXJYOBKGA}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting.

C2weakest assumption

That real-time data from the Regional Cabled Array combined with an unspecified physics-based framework will generate forecasts capable of meaningfully testing predictability limits.

C3one line summary

The EFE sets up a transparent protocol of timestamped, hashed monthly forecasts for Axial Seamount eruptions using real-time ocean data, with all predictions published after the fact to enable falsifiable evaluation.

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-02T01:04:15.080929Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

b0c779983ac409607ef7296e9c382a300b1a2cd9fd9425883e7c665758f1c897

Aliases

arxiv: 2511.06128 · arxiv_version: 2511.06128v7 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2511.06128 · pith_short_12: WDDXTGB2YQEW · pith_short_16: WDDXTGB2YQEWA7XX · pith_short_8: WDDXTGB2

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/WDDXTGB2YQEWA7XXFFXJYOBKGA \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: b0c779983ac409607ef7296e9c382a300b1a2cd9fd9425883e7c665758f1c897

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "5ea1af9e1fb0b7c66fffd7edac4b482d1104deac53c8109101194d61d501807f",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "physics.geo-ph",
    "submitted_at": "2025-11-08T20:40:53Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "9535a3be5044357f858067ddd9909bda9c5ccf9c9da49b023bab7b113dd66e0b"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2511.06128",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 7
  }
}