Polymarket exhibits a longshot spread premium, geometric order depth, low wash trading, and only 59% agreement between public order book and on-chain trade directions.
The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
2 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Pith papers citing it
abstract
Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decomposition that separates exchange-equivalent turnover from share minting and burning, and trader-level disagreement measures. Naive aggregation reports $958M of October Trump-market volume, compared with $391M under our decomposition. Market quality improved as arbitrage-deviation half-lives fell from hours to under a minute and Kyle's {\lambda} dropped from 0.53 to 0.01. During October's large-account episode, capital flowed into both sides simultaneously, consistent with heterogeneous-beliefs trading rather than one-sided manipulation. The framework generalizes to other tokenized prediction markets.
years
2026 2representative citing papers
The Signal Credibility Index (SCI) is a microstructure diagnostic that measures signal credibility in prediction markets via persistence ratio on logit prices and flow-based concentration, with weighted and time-varying forms validated in Monte Carlo simulations.
citing papers explorer
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The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Microstructure Evidence from the Polymarket Order Book
Polymarket exhibits a longshot spread premium, geometric order depth, low wash trading, and only 59% agreement between public order book and on-chain trade directions.
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The Signal Credibility Index for Prediction Markets: A Microstructure-Grounded Diagnostic with Weighted and Time-Varying Extensions
The Signal Credibility Index (SCI) is a microstructure diagnostic that measures signal credibility in prediction markets via persistence ratio on logit prices and flow-based concentration, with weighted and time-varying forms validated in Monte Carlo simulations.