SpatialEpiBench shows adjacency-informed models with epidemic priors underperform a last-value baseline across 11 datasets from 1 day to 1 month ahead, identifying failures in outbreak anticipation, sparsity handling, and geographic adjacency utility.
Cola-gnn: Cross-location attention based graph neural networks for long-term ili prediction
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Branched Normalizing Flow improves conditional coverage robustness of conformal prediction under distribution shift by normalizing test inputs to the calibration distribution and mapping prediction sets back.
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SpatialEpiBench: Benchmarking Spatial Information and Epidemic Priors in Forecasting
SpatialEpiBench shows adjacency-informed models with epidemic priors underperform a last-value baseline across 11 datasets from 1 day to 1 month ahead, identifying failures in outbreak anticipation, sparsity handling, and geographic adjacency utility.
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Robust Conditional Conformal Prediction via Branched Normalizing Flow
Branched Normalizing Flow improves conditional coverage robustness of conformal prediction under distribution shift by normalizing test inputs to the calibration distribution and mapping prediction sets back.