Empirical study of Polymarket order book data yields eight stylized facts on spreads, depth, and trading, plus evidence that public feeds infer trade direction accurately only 59% of the time, requiring on-chain records.
Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation
2 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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In dynamic trading models, κ-separable securities characterize information aggregation; decreasing signal costs leads to discontinuous aggregation improvement for almost all securities irrespective of initial information.
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Information Aggregation with Costly Information Acquisition
In dynamic trading models, κ-separable securities characterize information aggregation; decreasing signal costs leads to discontinuous aggregation improvement for almost all securities irrespective of initial information.